BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHERN MARITIMES
WOCN31 CWHX 201800
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
THURSDAY 20 JULY 2006.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT
... BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHERN MARITIMES...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
39.4 N AND LONGITUDE 72.4 W... ABOUT 95 NAUTICAL MILES OR 180 KM
SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS... 93 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1000 MB.
BERYL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS... 18 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 20 3.00 PM 39.4N 72.4W 1000 50 93
JUL 21 3.00 AM 40.8N 70.3W 1000 50 93 UNDERGOING TRANSITION
JUL 21 3.00 PM 43.0N 66.7W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 3.00 AM 45.3N 60.7W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 3.00 PM 47.0N 53.6W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 3.00 AM 48.5N 48.5W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 3.00 PM 50.1N 45.0W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 AM 52.5N 42.1W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 PM 56.2N 40.5W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 25 3.00 AM 60.4N 39.9W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THE ATLANTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE WILL BE ISSUING RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR WESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. GUSTS OF 80 KM/H MAY BRUSH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. WIND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED BUT HAVE NOT BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SIGNIFICANT COASTAL WAVES SHOULD BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE ATLANTIC FACING COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE
FRIDAY AS BERYL
PASSES.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALE WARNINGS ARE MAINTAINED IN SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME WATERS AND
ARE CARRIED FORWARD IN THE EXTENDED MARINE FORECASTS THROUGH CENTRAL
MARITIME AND NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS AROUND THE AVALON PENINSULA.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
A CLEAR AREA WITHIN THE STORM CENTRE... DARE WE CALL IT AN EYE...
DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AT THE SAME TIME THAT CONVECTIVE TOPS
WARMED RAPIDLY. NHC INVESTIGATIONS CONTINUE MAINTAINING THIS AS A
50-KNOT WIND SYSTEM AND SURFACE OBS ARE IN ACCORD. LOW CLOUD
FILLED INTO THE "EYE" GIVING A CLEAR INDICATION OF THE LLCC ON VIS
IMAGERY. BERYL APPEARS TO BE WOBBLING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST
WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TRACK TIMING.
B. PROGNOSTIC
FROM DISCUSSION WITH NHC WE ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT BERYL SHOULD HAVE
COMPLETED ET DURING THE DAY TOMORROW... HENCE THE LAST NHC POSITION
IS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AT 00Z. WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE RESPONSE ZONE
AS A POST TROPICAL SYSTEM.
THERE IS INSUFFICIENT NEW INFORMATION AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. THE FINAL NHC POSITION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
OUR TRACK HOWEVER WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR PREVIOUS TRACK SPEED SINCE
THE NEW GEM SHORTWAVE IS ACTUALLY FASTER AND WE BELIEVE THAT THE
POST TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE MORE BAROCLINIC AT THAT POINT AND LIKELY
MOVING WITH THE SHORT WAVE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BERYL WILL BE
SHEARED AWAY AND UNDERGOING ACCELERATION BEFORE GETTING ENTANGLED
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A REDEVELOPER AT
THIS TIME. OUR FORECAST TRACK FALLS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE
DEFINED BY THE 12Z UKMET AND GFDL RUNS. THE 12Z CYCLONE PHASE RUNS
ARE NOT AVAILABLE PRIOR TO ISSUE TIME SO WE ARE CONTINUING WITH
THINKING
OF PREVIOUS MESSAGE REGARDING ET.
THIS TRACK TAKES BERYL OVER A TONGUE OF MUCH COOLER WATER BEGINNING
OVERNIGHT AND COUPLED WITH THE GREATER SHEAR AT THAT TIME IT SHOULD
START WEAKENING. IF ANYTHING OUR MAX WIND STRENGTH MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE.
THE APPARENT STORM WOBBLED MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TRACK SPEED
HOWEVER WE HAVE NOT FACTORED THIS INTO THINGS AT THIS TIME.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF BERYLS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND HOW
MUCH WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS IT MOVES OVER THE COOLER WATERS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AT THIS TIME... HOWEVER
THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE WILL LIKELY FORECAST GUSTS OF
80 KM/H ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA... ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN REGIONS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE VERY TRICKY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT UNDERGOES
ET BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 100 MM ARE NOT UNREASONABLE WITH A STORM OF
THIS NATURE.
D. MARINE WEATHER
THE CHC TRAPPED FETCH MODEL GENERATES 8M WAVES LATE FRIDAY BECAUSE
THE STORM TRACK IS ON A STRAIGHT LINE AND INCREASING UNIFORMLY IN
SPEED... SO RESONANCE IS A GOOD BET. WHETHER THEY REACH 8 METRES IS
HARD TO SAY... BUT GIVEN THE TRACK AND WIND STRENGTH 6-7 METRES IS
A GOOD BET. THESE WAVES WILL BE ON A DIRECT LINE TOWARDS THE CAPE
SABLE AREA OF NOVA SCOTIA BUT WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL THE STORM
ITSELF ARRIVES.
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
20/18Z 120 90 60 50 90 60 20 40 0 0 0 0
21/06Z 120 90 60 50 90 60 20 40 0 0 0 0
21/18Z 135 95 65 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/06Z 150 100 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/18Z 155 110 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/06Z 170 120 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/18Z 180 120 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/06Z 180 120 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 180 120 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 180 120 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END BOWYER
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
THURSDAY 20 JULY 2006.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT
... BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHERN MARITIMES...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
39.4 N AND LONGITUDE 72.4 W... ABOUT 95 NAUTICAL MILES OR 180 KM
SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS... 93 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1000 MB.
BERYL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS... 18 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 20 3.00 PM 39.4N 72.4W 1000 50 93
JUL 21 3.00 AM 40.8N 70.3W 1000 50 93 UNDERGOING TRANSITION
JUL 21 3.00 PM 43.0N 66.7W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 3.00 AM 45.3N 60.7W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 3.00 PM 47.0N 53.6W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 3.00 AM 48.5N 48.5W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 3.00 PM 50.1N 45.0W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 AM 52.5N 42.1W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 PM 56.2N 40.5W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 25 3.00 AM 60.4N 39.9W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THE ATLANTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE WILL BE ISSUING RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR WESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. GUSTS OF 80 KM/H MAY BRUSH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. WIND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED BUT HAVE NOT BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SIGNIFICANT COASTAL WAVES SHOULD BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE ATLANTIC FACING COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE
FRIDAY AS BERYL
PASSES.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALE WARNINGS ARE MAINTAINED IN SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME WATERS AND
ARE CARRIED FORWARD IN THE EXTENDED MARINE FORECASTS THROUGH CENTRAL
MARITIME AND NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS AROUND THE AVALON PENINSULA.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
A CLEAR AREA WITHIN THE STORM CENTRE... DARE WE CALL IT AN EYE...
DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AT THE SAME TIME THAT CONVECTIVE TOPS
WARMED RAPIDLY. NHC INVESTIGATIONS CONTINUE MAINTAINING THIS AS A
50-KNOT WIND SYSTEM AND SURFACE OBS ARE IN ACCORD. LOW CLOUD
FILLED INTO THE "EYE" GIVING A CLEAR INDICATION OF THE LLCC ON VIS
IMAGERY. BERYL APPEARS TO BE WOBBLING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST
WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TRACK TIMING.
B. PROGNOSTIC
FROM DISCUSSION WITH NHC WE ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT BERYL SHOULD HAVE
COMPLETED ET DURING THE DAY TOMORROW... HENCE THE LAST NHC POSITION
IS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AT 00Z. WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE RESPONSE ZONE
AS A POST TROPICAL SYSTEM.
THERE IS INSUFFICIENT NEW INFORMATION AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. THE FINAL NHC POSITION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
OUR TRACK HOWEVER WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR PREVIOUS TRACK SPEED SINCE
THE NEW GEM SHORTWAVE IS ACTUALLY FASTER AND WE BELIEVE THAT THE
POST TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE MORE BAROCLINIC AT THAT POINT AND LIKELY
MOVING WITH THE SHORT WAVE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BERYL WILL BE
SHEARED AWAY AND UNDERGOING ACCELERATION BEFORE GETTING ENTANGLED
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A REDEVELOPER AT
THIS TIME. OUR FORECAST TRACK FALLS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE
DEFINED BY THE 12Z UKMET AND GFDL RUNS. THE 12Z CYCLONE PHASE RUNS
ARE NOT AVAILABLE PRIOR TO ISSUE TIME SO WE ARE CONTINUING WITH
THINKING
OF PREVIOUS MESSAGE REGARDING ET.
THIS TRACK TAKES BERYL OVER A TONGUE OF MUCH COOLER WATER BEGINNING
OVERNIGHT AND COUPLED WITH THE GREATER SHEAR AT THAT TIME IT SHOULD
START WEAKENING. IF ANYTHING OUR MAX WIND STRENGTH MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE.
THE APPARENT STORM WOBBLED MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TRACK SPEED
HOWEVER WE HAVE NOT FACTORED THIS INTO THINGS AT THIS TIME.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF BERYLS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND HOW
MUCH WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS IT MOVES OVER THE COOLER WATERS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AT THIS TIME... HOWEVER
THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE WILL LIKELY FORECAST GUSTS OF
80 KM/H ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA... ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN REGIONS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE VERY TRICKY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT UNDERGOES
ET BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 100 MM ARE NOT UNREASONABLE WITH A STORM OF
THIS NATURE.
D. MARINE WEATHER
THE CHC TRAPPED FETCH MODEL GENERATES 8M WAVES LATE FRIDAY BECAUSE
THE STORM TRACK IS ON A STRAIGHT LINE AND INCREASING UNIFORMLY IN
SPEED... SO RESONANCE IS A GOOD BET. WHETHER THEY REACH 8 METRES IS
HARD TO SAY... BUT GIVEN THE TRACK AND WIND STRENGTH 6-7 METRES IS
A GOOD BET. THESE WAVES WILL BE ON A DIRECT LINE TOWARDS THE CAPE
SABLE AREA OF NOVA SCOTIA BUT WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL THE STORM
ITSELF ARRIVES.
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
20/18Z 120 90 60 50 90 60 20 40 0 0 0 0
21/06Z 120 90 60 50 90 60 20 40 0 0 0 0
21/18Z 135 95 65 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/06Z 150 100 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/18Z 155 110 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/06Z 170 120 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/18Z 180 120 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/06Z 180 120 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 180 120 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 180 120 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END BOWYER
posted by Advackia at 11:59 AM
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