Wednesday, July 08, 2020

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fay Update One




























ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of northeastern
South Carolina continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic waters and
portions of eastern North Carolina.  The low is expected to move
northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer
Banks on Thursday, and then turn north-northeastward and move along
the mid-Atlantic coast Friday.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next day or so.
Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce locally
heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions
of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern
New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible
along the North Carolina Outer Banks through Thursday and along the
mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and Saturday. 
Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system
and refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brown

000
FXUS61 KCAR 081857
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
257 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area tonight and crest over the
region Thursday into Friday. Low pressure will approach from the
south Friday night and cross the area Saturday. A cold front will
cross the region Sunday followed by high pressure Monday.....

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A warm upper ridge and weak surface high pressure will be over the
area Thursday night. This will bring a mostly clear night with some
patchy valley fog possible late at night. Strong upper ridging will
bring another mostly sunny, very warm and humid day Friday as
surface high pressure begins to slide east of the region. Our focus
then turns to a small subtropical low tracking up the Mid-Atlantic
coast ahead of a trough and weak cold front approaching from the
west. This low is expected to track north into  southern New England
Friday night and then north onto the western Maine coast early
Saturday morning. The latest guidance shows this low weakening and
becoming absorbed in a larger frontal low tracking from the eastern
Great Lakes toward western New England. Rain will likely spread
north into our Downeast area late Friday night then continue north
across the rest of the area Saturday morning. With the subtropical
low weakening and becoming absorbed by the western frontal system,
guidance is not indicating any large scale organized heavy rainfall,
but rather a light to moderate rain that could amount to around a
quarter to a half inch across the area, with locally high amounts in
any convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers will continue into Saturday evening as the subtropical wave
weakens and lifts north of the area, and a frontal low tracks into
southern Quebec. The frontal low will track northeast, north of the
St. Lawrence valley Sunday morning pulling drier air into the region
from the southwest. Any lingering showers should taper off early
Sunday morning giving way to a mostly sunny and warm day on Sunday.
Weak surface high pressure should last into Monday with a mostly
sunny and very warm day Monday. A new trough of low pressure and
surface low will approach Monday night bringing increasing clouds.
Clouds and a good chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
around Tuesday as the low and accompanying cold front press into the
area. Showers may linger into Wednesday as the trough slowly slides
across and east of our region.

Tuesday, July 07, 2020

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fay


























ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located inland along the Georgia-South
Carolina border southeast of Augusta, Georgia, continues to produce
a large area of showers and heavy rain over portions of the
southeastern United States. The low is expected to move slowly
eastward overnight before turning east-northeastward on Wednesday.
By Wednesday night and Thursday, the system is forecast to move
generally northeastward near or just offshore the coast of the
Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone could form later this week if the low moves
over the warm waters of the western Atlantic. Regardless of
development, the low is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall
that could cause flash flooding across portions of the southeastern
U.S. during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

000
FXUS61 KCAR 072239
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
639 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will approach from the west late tonight and cross the
region Wednesday. High pressure will return for Thursday and Friday.
Low pressure will approach from the south Friday night and track
toward the area Saturday. A cold front will approach from the west
on Sunday.......

&&

.....SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The front will slide east of the area Wednesday evening. High
pressure will then build over the region Wednesday night. Calm air
and clearing skies over moistened ground will likely allow for some
patchy fog to form late at night. Any fog should dissipate Thursday
morning allowing for a partly to mostly sunny and very warm day on
Thursday followed by a mostly clear night Thursday night. High
pressure will slowly slide to the east on Friday allowing for
another partly to mostly sunny, warm and humid day on Friday. Some
isolated thundershowers are possible across the area, mostly north
and west, both Thursday and Friday afternoons. Clouds may begin to
increase from the south late Friday ahead of a subtropical low
lifting north from the Mid-Atlantic region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Our focus Friday night into Saturday will be on a small but moist
subtropical low approaching from the Mid-Atlantic region as a cold
front nears from the Midwest. Clouds will increase from south to
north ahead of this system Friday night and rain will spread into
the area from the south after midnight. It remains a bit uncertain
how much of the heaviest rain from this system will lift north. The
greatest chance for some heavy rain will be across eastern Downeast
areas early Saturday morning as the low tracks into the Gulf of
Maine. Lighter rain is likely north and west of the low as the low
center tracks toward eastern Downeast areas on Saturday. The
northern reach of the heavier rain will ultimately depend on the
nature of the approaching front from the west which, if slower and
more negatively tilted, would allow more subtropical moisture and
therefore heavier rainfall to lift north. The subtropical low will
continue northeast across New Brunswick Saturday night as the front
from the west crosses our area. This front may produce additional
showers Saturday night with the best chance for showers in western
areas. The front will slide east on Sunday as a trailing supporting
shortwave brings lingering cloudiness and some isolated showers on
Sunday. High pressure will build over the area Monday as a weak
surface trough remains over the area. Some spotty showers may still
be around on Monday as the upper trough moves over.

&&