Sunday, September 24, 2017

Record Setting Late Season Heat - Day One 09/23/2017

Maine

Record high temperatures were either tied or broken Saturday, September 23, 2017.  The high at Caribou, Maine of 82 degrees tied the previous record last set in 2003.   At Houlton, the high of 84 degrees tied the record high set in 1965.  At Bangor, the high of 85 degrees broke the previous record of 80F, set in 1989.

Record high temperatures were broken on Sunday, September 24, 2017.  The high at Caribou of 85 degrees broke the previous record of 80F last set in 1963.  It also established the latest 85F temperature on record at Caribou.  At Bangor, the high of 89 degrees broke the previous record of 88F, set in 1930.  At Houlton, the high of 87 degrees broke the previous record of 81F, set in 1958.  It was also the warmest temperature ever observed so late in the season.   At Millinocket, the high of 87 degrees broke the previous record of 86F, set in 1920.

Additional record high temperatures will likely be established Monday and Tuesday as an unseasonably warm air mass remains across the region.

Record highs Monday, September 25th            

Caribou:  83F, in 2007 (current forecast 84F)

Bangor:  88F, in 1930 (current forecast  88F)

Houlton: 82F, in 1970 (current forecast 85F)

Millinocket: 84F, in 1920 (current forecast 87F)

 Record highs Tuesday, September 26th

Caribou:  81F, in 2007 (current forecast 81F)

Bangor:  91F, in 2007 (current forecast 84F)

Houlton:  85F, in 2007 (current forecast 85F)

Millinocket: 87F, in 2007 (current forecast 85F)

Based on the forecast temperatures the remainder of the month it is projected that this September will rank as the 2nd warmest on record at Caribou with an average temperature of 61.6 degrees, just one tenth of a degree shy of the all-time record warmest September in 1999.  At Bangor, based on the forecast temperatures the remainder of the month it is projected that this September will rank as the warmest on record with an average temperature of 65.5 degrees, which would break the previous record by two tenths of a degree that was set in 1961.  Keep in mind that the monthly records do not become final until the end of the month, and at this time are based on the forecast temperatures the remainder of the month.

Based on the observed high temperatures this weekend and the forecast highs Monday and Tuesday there is the potential that there will be 4 consecutive days with a high of 80 degrees or warmer at Caribou.   This would smash the old record of 2 consecutive days with a high of 80F or warmer on September 25-26, 2007.

New Brunswick

Weather summary
for New Brunswick
issued by Environment Canada
at 4:48 a.m. ADT Sunday 24 September 2017.

Discussion.

The following stations set a daily maximum temperature record on
September 23, 2017:

Bouctouche
New record of 28.0
Old record of 27.2 set in 1969
Records in this area have been kept since 1965

Saint John
New record of 25.7
Old record of 25.6 set in 1961
Records in this area have been kept since 1871

Note: the temperature records reported here have been derived from a
selection of historical stations in each geographic area that were
active during the period of record.

Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial
information and does not constitute a complete or final report.

End/ASPC

Prince Edward Island

Weather summary
for Prince Edward Island
issued by Environment Canada
at 4:47 a.m. ADT Sunday 24 September 2017.

Discussion.

The following stations set a daily maximum temperature record on
September 23, 2017:

East Point
New record of 25.5
Old record of 23.5 set in 1989
Records in this area have been kept since 1967

Summerside
New record of 26.5
Old record of 26.4 set in 2002
Records in this area have been kept since 1898

Note: the temperature records reported here have been derived from a
selection of historical stations in each geographic area that were
active during the period of record.

Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial
information and does not constitute a complete or final report.

End/ASPC

Friday, September 22, 2017

Jose Weakens And Becomes Extratropical While Meandering South Of Cape Cod





















Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
427 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Jose will remain southeast of Cape
Cod and will slowly weaken through this weekend while High
pressure both at the surface and upper atmosphere builds across
the region from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong high pressure will persist to the southwest of New
England and continue to build tonight into Saturday. Expect
clouds from Jose to persist along coastal areas until late this
evening but skies over the remainder of the forecast area are
expected to remain mostly clear. Temperatures are expected to be
much warmer Saturday as high pressure to the southwest continues
to build.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Models showed good run to run continuity from prev model runs
thru Sun erly aftn, but aftwrds, very poor continuity from
late Sun aftn into erly next week. Chgs include an earlier back
door cold front from late Sun aftn across the N to Sun eve
Downeast. Also, models indicate enough hi llvl dwpts upwards to
mid to upper 60s for possible isold to sct tstms Sun aftn and
erly eve across Nrn and Ern ptns of the Rgn as the front crosses
thru, so we added this to the fcst. Not enough confidence to
mention any enhanced wording due to relatively stable mid lvl
lapse rates and dry antecedent ground moisture that could result
in more mixing of slightly drier air from alf on Sun, lowering
aftn dwpts and the potential of cnvctn initiation...so this
fcst for isold-sct tstms Sun aftn is a middle ground apch for
now.

After mild ovrngt lows Sat ngt and erly morn patchy fog Sun morn
due to increasingly humid air, hi temps will apch or exceed
record hi temps at some lctns (see climate section of disc) as
fcst max aftn 925mb temps reach the the lower to mid 20s C.
With llvl cool advcn with NE to E winds Sun ngt, we removed the
mention of patchy fog late Sun ngt.

Mon will be ptly to msly sunny, but at this point, not as warm
as Sun, although still sig abv normal for this tm of season.
Temps will climb more quickly toward hi temps Mon aftn as the
front returns back toward Wrn ptns of the FA as a warm front
late in the day and Mon eve.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Longer range models are now indicating Tue to be dry and much
warmer than thought to be ystdy attm. For now, given the run to
run uncertainty of the models, we did raise hi temps
considerably for Tue, but not as much as what current dtmnstc
12z models like the ECMWF and GFS are implying. We will adjust
hi temps Tue upwards in later updates based on a stable model
trend.

Otherwise, both the dtmnstc 12z GFS and ECMWF are also faster
by 6 to 9 hrs with the next major cold frontal system and
associated upper trof for later Wed into Thu morn than shown for
ystdy attm. We did raise hi temps a few deg F for Wed aftn ahead
of the leading edge of shwrs. Speaking of shwrs, there was
enough fcst SBCAPEs to mention aftn/eve tstms across the N hlf
of the FA. Shwrs will cont late Wed ngt into Thu morn before
ending Thu aftn well behind the cold front, with Nrn ptns of
the FA potentially receiving about a half inch downwards to a
quarter inch or less Downeast. Temps will be definitely
returning to more normal values Thu ngt and Fri under mdtly
strong llvl cool advcn with SC cld cvr persisting longest across
the N.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR Next 24 hours.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mainly VFR all TAF sites with IFR vsbys and
clgs possible with fog late Tue ngt msly ovr Downeast sites and
MVFR clgs and vsbys at any TAF site with any tstm or heavier
shwrs later Wed aftn.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
Have used the NAM to initialize the wind grids, however there
is still a strong inversion resulting from the relatively cold
sea surface temperature. Therefore have reduced the wind speeds
from the NAM by 20 percent to adjust for high bias. For Waves:
Currently long period swell from Jose (6-7 feet/11 seconds) is
still entering the Gulf of Maine and is still the primary wave
system. This wave system will continue to subside tonight into
Saturday. Expect the wave spectrum to become more bi-modal later
tonight as long period swell from Jose subsides and the
northeasterly wind wave system persists and may become the
primary wave group late tonight. Will use the Nearshore Wave
Prediction System (NWPS) to initialize the wave grids but will
lower model wave heights by 1 foot to adjust for high bias
resulting from cold sea surface temperature. Will extend the SCA
until 0600Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM TERM: Initially no hdlns will be needed Sat
ngt thru Sun ngt, but long pd swell wv hts will increase back
into the SCA range possibly as erly as Mon and cont thru mid
week as Maria moves Nwrd into the open Atlc to E of Cape
Hatteras. Beach hi surf and rip current potential will likely
become high again by Tue aftn or so. Kept close to WW3 wv
guidance for fcst wv hts with wv pds fcst again in the 12 to 16
sec range.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Currently long period swell from Jose which is running at 11
seconds/6-7 feet continues to enter the Gulf of Maine. Waves are
expected to to slowly subside Tonight and Saturday.
Gerling/Hanson plots from NWPS Model indicate that the long
period wave group will fall below 5 feet/10 seconds late
tonight, so will extend the high surf advisory until 0600Z
Tonight.

Concern is that long period waves high impact in the surf zone,
and can run up much higher on the shore than shorter period
waves resulting in the danger of spectators being washed into
the ocean. Dangerous Rip Currents are also expected.

Some minor beach erosion is possible however Runup, splashover,
flooding due to storm surge are not expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temps are possible at Bangor and Houlton Saturday
afternoon and at multiple locations Sunday afternoon. Current
records for these dates are:

Saturday September 23rd

Bangor........80 deg set in 1989
Houlton.......84 deg set in 1965

Sunday September 24th

Caribou.......80 deg set in 1958
Bangor........88 deg set in 1930
Houlton.......81 deg set in 1958
Millinocket...86 deg set in 1920

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Mignone/VJN
Marine...Mignone/VJN
Tides/Coastal Flooding...TM
Climate...VJN


000
WTNT42 KNHC 222034
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number  70
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017

After 70 advisories, enough is enough.  The tropical-storm-force
winds from Jose have finally subsided and moved out of the
southern New England.  Thus, the wind hazard to land has decreased,
and this will be the last advisory on Jose since it is already
post-tropical. A slow decay over cold water is forecast while the
low drifts southeastward to southward.  The cyclone should
degenerate into a trough within 3 days as forecast by the global
models.

The swell and rip current threat will remain across large portions
of the U.S. east coast for quite some time, due to the wave field
from both Jose and Maria.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 39.3N  69.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  23/0600Z 39.1N  69.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  23/1800Z 38.7N  68.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0600Z 38.4N  67.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1800Z 38.2N  68.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Thursday, September 21, 2017

Frost Possible In Northwestern New Brunswick Overnight

3:53 PM ADT Thursday 21 September 2017
Frost advisory in effect for:

Woodstock and Carleton County
Frost may damage frost-sensitive fruit trees and vegetable plants.

Clear and calm conditions may lead to the formation of frost overnight tonight.

Take preventative measures to protect frost-sensitive plants and trees.

Frost advisories are issued when temperatures are expected to reach the freezing mark during the growing season, leading to potential damage and destruction to plants and crops.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.weatheraspc.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

That Fella Jose Lingers Offshore Update One




















2:42 PM ADT Thursday 21 September 2017
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Nova Scotia:
Queens County
Shelburne County
Yarmouth County
For Tropical Storm Jose.

The next information statement will be issued by 9:00 p.m. ADT.

Tropical Storm Jose is forecast to drift slowly offshore well southwest of Nova Scotia - No land impacts except for rough surf along part of the atlantic coast of Nova Scotia.

1. Summary of basic information at 3:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: 39.5 North 68.0 West.
About 260 kilometres southeast of Nantucket.

Maximum sustained winds: 95 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: Nearly stationary.

Minimum central pressure: 985 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Big picture:

Tropical storm Jose is currently located over offshore waters well southwest of Nova Scotia. The tropical storm will continue to weaken as it drifts very slowly southward. It will take another couple of days for the storm to dissipate completely.

Hurricane Maria, a category 3 hurricane, is now heading toward the Turks and Caicos islands. It will be located east of the Bahamas during the weekend, at which time we will be contemplating whether the Canadian Hurricane Centre will be issuing regular bulletins on it. Stay tuned.

a. Wind.

Light to moderate easterly winds over Nova Scotia will persist into the night. Winds gusts between 40 to 60 km/h have been observed along the south shore.

b. Rainfall.

No rainfall from Jose is expected to affect land areas in Canada.

c. Surge/Waves.

Rough surf conditions can be expected along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia. Swells near 3 metres continue tonight along the coast from Yarmouth County to Queens County. For Lunenburg County, Halifax County and Guysborough County, swells of 2 metres will persist tonight. These swells will taper off on Friday into the weekend. There is also a risk of dangerous rip currents during this period and the public should exercise caution near the beaches.

Tides will be high due to the new moon phase but no storm surge is expected. The combination of large waves and tides will lead to water running up fairly high along the shorelines but we are not expecting water level to cause any issues.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale force east to southeast winds are expected for the southwestern portion of the Maritimes marine district today and most of tonight. Gale warnings are in effect for Browns Bank, Georges Bank, La Have Bank and West Scotian Slope. Waves of 4 to 6 metres are occurring over the southwesternmost Maritime waters.

Forecaster: Couturier

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

000
FXUS61 KCAR 212010
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
410 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Jose will remain southeast of Cape Cod
and will slowly weaken through this weekend while High
pressure both at the surface and upper atmosphere builds
across the region from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strong high pressure will persist over the region tonight into
Friday then weaken later in the day Friday. Some clouds from
Jose are possible along coastal areas tonight into Friday but
not rain is expected from the storm. The north will remain
mostly clear Tonight and Friday.

A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through 8 pm this evening
for the coast. Some splash-over is also possible at the time of
high tide later this morning. More on this in the Tides/Coastal
Flooding section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...Unseasonably warm conditions expected this weekend...

What`s left of any hi cldnss from slowly weakening and departing
Maria in the open Atlc SE of Cape Cod will dissipate Fri ngt
into Sat morn. Otherwise, xpct, msly clr skies and lgt winds Fri
ngt. Cannot rule out late ngt patchy fog for parts of the area,
but milder ovrngt lows compared to tngt and antecedent dry
ground conditions will be lmtg factors, so we so not show any
fog in our fcst grids for Fri ngt attm.

Sat will be msly sunny and sig warmer with msly lgt west winds
as high pres alf conts to build, xcpt aftn sea breeze for
Downeast areas. A weak s/wv movg E across Cntrl QB could bring
some hi cldnss to Nrn ptns of the FA late Sat ngt and Sun morn.

Otherwise, most model guidance shows an additional surge of
warmer and somewhat more humid air movg into the Rgn from the W
by Sun aftn. The only lmtg factor to area wide record hi temps
Sun aftn may be the amt of sunshine across NE ptns of the Rgn
which will be in the NE quadrant of a very large and
unseasonably strong upper ridge. If the 12z GFS model and
supporting ensm run is correct, however, the hi temp fcst of
lower 80s for low trrn lctns N will be conservative by 3 to 5
deg F. Other models like the 12z ECMWF show a delay of the
arrival of the warmest air until nearly eve, and the 12z CanGem
model, interestingly enough shows a back door cold front sliding
across the Rgn on Sun. Given past trends of CPC guidance
regarding the strength of the upper hi, we have discounted the
12z CanGem model attm. Sun ngt will be mostly clear to partly
cloudy and quite mild for this tm of season.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mon will cont to be ptly to msly sunny and unseasonably warm
across the Rgn, with most models advertising a back door cold
front beginning to move Swrd into Nrn ME from Ern QB by aftn.
Subsequently, Hi temps may be a little cooler across the far N.
We tried to split the difference with the tmg of the cold front
passage from the faster GFS and slightly slower ECMWF. Both
models bring the front to near the Downeast coast by Tue morn.
With little in the way of frontal cnvrg and very stable lapse
rates alf, we do not xpct much in the way of shwrs with this
feature, with only some cldnss.

Additional s/wvs will continue to flatten the NE U.S. upper
ridge and will bring the Rgn better shwr chcs from late Wed thru
Thu with perhaps appreciable rnfl amts for the Rgn Wed ngt into
Thu. Hi and low temps Tue thru Thu will be cooler, but still
sig abv seasonal norms with ovrngt lows Thu ngt behind a
strongercold front closer to seasonal avgs.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mainly VFR xpctd area wide from Fri ngt
through Tue with perhaps a pd of MVFR cldnss across Nrn
most TAF sites late Mon ngt into Tue morn.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize the wind grids,
however there is still a strong inversion resulting from the
relatively cold sea surface temperature. Therefore have reduced
the wind speeds from the NAM by 20 percent to adjust for high
bias. For Waves: Currently long period swell from Jose (7-8
feet/12 seconds) is still entering the Gulf of Maine. This wave
system will subside tonight into Friday but due to additional
waves being generated by the weakening storm the process will be
slow. A secondary northeasterly wind wave system has also
developed across the Gulf of Maine but this wave group will also
subside tonight as high pressure builds down from the north.
Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) to
initialize the wave grids but will lower model wave heights by 1
foot to adjust for high bias resulting from cold sea surface
temperature.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA seas from long pd swell from slowly
weakening Jose will still be continuing Fri ngt into Sat.
Following this, there may be a break in from SCA conditions
Sun and Mon before wv hts increase back into the SCA range by
midweek from long distance swell radiating from Maria as it
tracks well SE of our waters. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for
fcst wv hts. Wv pds will be exceptionally long, ranging from 12
to 16 sec, with the longest pd swells erly next week from
Maria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
 Currently long period swell from Jose which is running at 12
seconds/7-8 feet continues to enter the Gulf of Maine. Waves are
expected to to slowly subside Tonight and Friday. Will extend
the high surf advisory into Friday Morning. Concern is that long
period waves high impact in the surf zone, and can run up much
higher on the shore than shorter period waves resulting in the
danger of spectators being washed into the ocean. Dangerous Rip
Currents are also expected.

Some minor beach erosion is possible however Runup, splashover,
flooding due to storm surge are not expected.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Mignone/VJN
Marine...Mignone/VJN
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Mignone

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  66
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

Jose is still producing some convective bands well to the north and
west of the center.  The outer-most bands are brushing the coast of
extreme southeastern New England, where tropical-storm-force winds,
especially in gusts, have been occurring for much of the day.  An
ASCAT pass from earlier today showed maximum winds near 45 kt, and
since the cyclone appears to have weakened since that time, the
initial wind speed is lowered slightly to that value.

Cool waters, dry air, and an increase in wind shear should cause
Jose to continue weakening, and model simulated satellite images
suggest that Jose should become a post-tropical cyclone in about 24
hours, or sooner.  The intensity models are in very good agreement,
and the NHC forecast is an update of the previous one.

Jose has been meandering off the southern New England coastline
during the past several hours.  Since the cyclone is expected to
remain in weak steering currents, little motion is forecast during
the next few days.  The NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous one and in general agreement with the consensus aids.

The initial wind radii have been modified based on ASCAT data from
around 1500 UTC.  The forecast wind radii follows the guidance
provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring
within the tropical storm warning area.  These conditions are
expected to continue through tonight.

2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of
southern New England during the next few days.  Please see products
issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the
U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 39.6N  67.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 39.5N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 39.5N  68.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  23/0600Z 39.2N  68.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  23/1800Z 39.0N  68.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  24/1800Z 38.9N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

That Fella Jose Lingers Offshore























2:40 PM ADT Wednesday 20 September 2017
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

Nova Scotia:
Queens County
Shelburne County
Yarmouth County
For Tropical Storm Jose.

The next information statement will be issued by 9:00 p.m. ADT.

Tropical Storm Jose forecast to drift slowly well southwest of Nova Scotia for the next few days. Minimal land impacts expected except for rough surf along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia

1. Summary of basic information at 3:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: 39.3 North 69.5 West.

About 395 kilometres east-southeast of New York City.

Maximum sustained winds: 111 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: East-Northeast at 13 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 975 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Big picture:

Jose's continues as a tropical storm and its circulation is still expected to just barely affect Nova Scotia while it drifts slowly well southwest of the province. It will take several days for Jose to dissipate completely.

Hurricane Maria, a dangerous category 4 hurricane recently passed over Puerto Rico. That storm will be located near the Bahamas by the weekend, at which time we will be contemplating whether the Canadian Hurricane Centre will be issuing regular bulletins on it. Stay tuned.

a. Wind.

It's still looking like only light to moderate easterly winds will be felt in Nova Scotia on Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will be a bit stronger over southwestern parts of the province (~50 km/h).

b. Rainfall.

Jose and an associated trough east of it will maintain very humid, tropical air over the region with overcast skies and some showers, possibly heavy today and tonight. Conditions should start to dry out a bit on Thursday.

c. Surge/Waves.

Increasingly rough surf conditions can be expected along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia today into Thursday. Swells near 2 to 3 metres will build to 3 to 4 metres along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia tonight and into Thursday then taper off late Friday into the weekend. The highest waves are expected from Yarmouth east to Queens County. There is also a risk of dangerous rip currents during this period and the public should exercise caution near the beaches.

Tides will high normal levels (new moon phase) but no storm surge is expected. The combination of large waves and tides will lead to water running up fairly high along the shorelines but we're not expecting that to cause any issues.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale force east to southeast winds are expected for the southwestern portion of the Maritimes marine district Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. There is a small possibility that storm force winds could reach the far southern part of Georges Bank. Gale warnings have been issued for Georges Bank, Browns Bank and southwestern half of West Scotian Slope.

Forecaster: Mercer

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

000
FXUS61 KCAR 202006
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
406 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical storm Jose will move to a position a couple hundred
miles southeast of Cape Cod tonight, then stall and begin to
retreat back south. High pressure will build down from the north
across our region later today into tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Currently a strong high pressure ridge persist to the north of
the State blocking any further northward movement of Jose. This
ridge is expected to slowly drift to the south over the next 24
hours and remain strong and continue to block northward movement
of Jose. Expect mostly clear skies in the north and central
areas tonight as the high builds. Some clouds and fog are
possible along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will stretch across the area Friday and Saturday,
keeping it dry and mostly sunny across much of the area. As Jose
continues to linger well to the south, some clouds may linger
along the coast and over the marine zones. Some models show
occasional light QPF over the waters and along the immediate
coast, but at no particular point was there enough confidence
to go for any mention of showers. Above normal temps will
continue across the state for the end of the week, with a
further warm-up expected to begin Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sun and Mon will be very warm for late September, with highs at
least 10 to 15 degrees above normal, especially on Sun. In some
spots, highs may approach record levels, though on both days
there is some concern that clouds may seep into the northern CWA
from a boundary slowly sagging south through Quebec. This front
may push through the CWA later Mon or Mon night, bringing a bit
of a cool down for mid-week - though in this case, it may only
revert toward normal temps. A complicating factor for Tue night
onward is the possibility of showers or steadier rainfall moving
into the state, drawn northward along the frontal boundary from
Maria and/or the remnant low of Jose. Most of the models show
some variation on this idea, but given the long forecast lead
time and the tendency for significant variations in tropical
cyclone track forecasts at that time frame, decision was made to
follow GYX`s lead and cap POPs at around 40 for now.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions next 24 hours.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Thurs night through
Saturday at all sites. Exceptions include patchy fog for KHUL to
KFVE Fri night, and for a slight risk for occasional MVFR CIGs
at KBHB. VFR conditions are expected again Sun and Mon for all
sites, except for possible MVFR CIGs in any widely isolated
shower activity for KPQI thru KFVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize the wind grids,
however will reduce model winds by 15 percent to adjust expected
high bias due to the inversion resulting from the relatively
cold sea surface temperature resulting in an inversion in the
boundary layer. For Waves: The primary wave system is the long
period swell emanating from Tropical Storm Jose. Wave heights
are expected to increase a few feet tonight to a maximum of
11-12 feet/11-12 seconds tomorrow morning then begin to slowly
subside. Due to boundary conditions mentioned above, a secondary
northeast wind wave system has been slow to develop and not
expected to increase to levels advertised by wind models. Will
initialize the waves with the Nearshore Wave Prediction System
(NWPS) then lower the waves heights by 1 foot to adjust bias
resulting from the boundary layer conditons. Will extend the SCA
for seas until 0600Z. Will persist longer than this but evening
or Mid shift may need to transition to generic SCA as winds
increase.

SHORT TERM: Seas will remain elevated above SCA levels into
Friday, but may finally drop below criteria Fri evening or
night. NE`ly winds will remain strong Thu night into Fri, but
gusts should drop below 25kts Fri afternoon, and both winds and
seas should remain below hazardous levels through Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Currently long period swell from Jose which is running at 11
seconds/7-8 feet continues to enter the Gulf of Maine. Waves are
expected to increase in height Tonight then begin to slowly
subside Thursday Morning. Will extend the high surf advisory
through the day Thursday. Concern is that long period waves high
impact in the surf zone, and can run up much higher on the
shore than shorter period waves resulting in the danger of
spectators being washed into the ocean. Dangerous Rip Currents
are also expected.

Warm air over sea surface temperatures in the 50s is creating a
strong inversion in the boundary layer and making it difficult
for stronger winds aloft from reaching the ocean surface.
Therefore model wind forcing is showing a high bias. As a result
expect increase water level from storm surge to remain well
under 1 foot. Also wave period has decreased somewhat today.
Therefore concern for splash-over and overtopping from long
period waves is reduced. High tide Tonight is at 11:50 PM and
Thursday Afternoon at 12:13 AM. There could be some minor slash-
over around these high tide cycles, however impact is now
expected to be minimal.

Total water levels inland from the coast are NOT expected to be
high enough for flooding.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone
Short Term...Kredensor
Long Term...Kredensor
Aviation...Mignone/Kredensor
Marine...Mignone/Kredensor
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Mignone

000
WTNT42 KNHC 202038
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  62
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

Jose has generally changed little since the previous advisory.
Geostationary and microwave satellite data show that the storm is
still producing well-defined convective bands on the north side of
the circulation.  Some of these outer bands are approaching the
southern New England coastline.  The initial wind speed is held at
60 kt based on the earlier aircraft data.  This estimate is also in
fair agreement with an ASCAT pass from earlier today, which also
showed that Jose has a very large wind field.  Another Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
later this evening, and should provide a better assessment of
Jose's intensity.

The tropical storm is moving northeastward at 7 kt steered by a
trough over eastern Canada.  This trough should cause Jose to move
east-northeastward at a slower pace tonight.  Thereafter, the
trough is expected to bypass the storm, leaving Jose in very weak
steering currents.  As a result, Jose is forecast to drift westward
beginning Thursday night and continue in that direction through
the weekend.  The models have trended a little to the west at the
end of the forecast period, and the NHC track forecast has followed
suit.

Jose is currently moving along the edge of the Gulf Stream, and is
expected to remain over this oceanic environment for a few more
days.  These relatively cool waters, a progressively drier airmass,
and an expected increase in wind shear should cause a gradual
weakening trend during the next several days.  The models are in
good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is
largely an update of the previous one.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the
U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct
impacts in portions of New England during the next day or two, and a
tropical storm warning remains in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island,
Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the
U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions for the next several days in these areas.

4. Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of
1 to 2 inches over Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod, and 2 to 4 inches
in Nantucket as it passes offshore.  This rainfall could cause
isolated flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 39.2N  69.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 39.6N  68.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 39.6N  67.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 39.6N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 39.5N  69.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  23/1800Z 39.3N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  24/1800Z 39.3N  70.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1800Z 39.4N  71.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi