Blogging About Hurricane Bill #6

WOCN31 CWHX 201800
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Thursday
20 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT

...Hurricane Bill expected to impact Atlantic Canada on Sunday...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 23.1 N
And longitude 62.4 W... About 305 nautical miles or 565 km north
Of st maarteen. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 105
Knots... 194 km/h... And central pressure at 951 MB. Bill is moving
Northwest at 16 knots... 30 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

The latest track of hurricane Bill has the storm moving slightly
southeast of the previous position over Newfoundland. However
Given the fact track errors are somewhat large beyond day three
One should not focus on the exact path.

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 20 3.00 PM 23.1N 62.4W 957 105 194
Aug 21 3.00 AM 25.5N 65.0W 952 110 204
Aug 21 3.00 PM 28.2N 66.8W 948 115 213
Aug 22 3.00 AM 31.1N 68.4W 948 115 213
Aug 22 3.00 PM 34.8N 68.9W 950 115 213
Aug 23 3.00 AM 38.8N 67.9W 959 105 194 transitioning
Aug 23 3.00 PM 43.1N 64.7W 971 90 167 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 AM 46.5N 58.3W 982 75 139 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 PM 49.3N 49.1W 991 60 111 post-tropical
Aug 25 3.00 AM 52.2N 37.2W 994 55 102 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
At this point it is too early for warnings to be issued as Bill
remains well to our south.

Swell from hurricane Bill will arrive along the Atlantic coast
Of Nova Scotia early Friday. By Saturday approaching swell heights
near 2 m will generate rough surf and hazardous rip currents along
some beaches. Breaking wave heights on the shoreline are expected
To be from 2 to 3 m (7 to 10 feet) along the Atlantic coast of
Nova Scotia on Saturday. Residents are advised to exercise caution
where large waves break onshore

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Given the current CHC track hurricane Bill is expected to impact
maritime marine areas later this weekend, however it is too early
To issue warnings.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis
Currently following nhc.

B. Prognostic
Following nhc on both track and intensity.

Bill is tracking northwestward north of the leeward islands and
Is expected to continue on this path for the next day or two. After
that a deep-layer trough is forecast to move over the eastern
United States while an upper-level ridge builds over the Atlantic.
These two features will steer Bill northward and eventually
northeastward later in the forecast period. Track guidance is
Tightly clustered for the first couple of days but then becomes
divergent on both direction and speed later in the forecast period.

Cyclone phase space diagrams indicate Bill will begin to undergo
extra-tropical transition on the 23rd and will be completed early
On the 24th.

C. Public weather
Nothing to say at this point.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
20/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 50 30 35
23/06Z 225 200 125 175 110 105 65 90 75 60 30 30
23/18Z 225 225 135 145 120 120 80 75 65 60 30 30
24/06Z 230 230 150 120 135 135 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/18Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0



End March/bowyer




WOCN31 CWHX 201800
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT THURSDAY
20 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

...HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 N
AND LONGITUDE 62.4 W... ABOUT 305 NAUTICAL MILES OR 565 KM NORTH
OF ST MAARTEEN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 105
KNOTS... 194 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 951 MB. BILL IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

THE LATEST TRACK OF HURRICANE BILL HAS THE STORM MOVING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE FACT TRACK ERRORS ARE SOMEWHAT LARGE BEYOND DAY THREE
ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT PATH.

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 20 3.00 PM 23.1N 62.4W 957 105 194
AUG 21 3.00 AM 25.5N 65.0W 952 110 204
AUG 21 3.00 PM 28.2N 66.8W 948 115 213
AUG 22 3.00 AM 31.1N 68.4W 948 115 213
AUG 22 3.00 PM 34.8N 68.9W 950 115 213
AUG 23 3.00 AM 38.8N 67.9W 959 105 194 TRANSITIONING
AUG 23 3.00 PM 43.1N 64.7W 971 90 167 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 3.00 AM 46.5N 58.3W 982 75 139 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 3.00 PM 49.3N 49.1W 991 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 3.00 AM 52.2N 37.2W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AS BILL
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

SWELL FROM HURRICANE BILL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY APPROACHING SWELL HEIGHTS
NEAR 2 M WILL GENERATE ROUGH SURF AND HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG
SOME BEACHES. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE SHORELINE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE FROM 2 TO 3 M (7 TO 10 FEET) ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
WHERE LARGE WAVES BREAK ONSHORE

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GIVEN THE CURRENT CHC TRACK HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MARITIME MARINE AREAS LATER THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE WARNINGS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY FOLLOWING NHC.

B. PROGNOSTIC
FOLLOWING NHC ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

BILL IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL STEER BILL NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THEN BECOMES
DIVERGENT ON BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE BILL WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ON THE 23RD AND WILL BE COMPLETED EARLY
ON THE 24TH.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NOTHING TO SAY AT THIS POINT.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
20/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 50 30 35
23/06Z 225 200 125 175 110 105 65 90 75 60 30 30
23/18Z 225 225 135 145 120 120 80 75 65 60 30 30
24/06Z 230 230 150 120 135 135 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/18Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0



END MARCH/BOWYER



WOCN31 CWHX 201200
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM ADT Thursday
20 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT

...Hurricane Bill expected to impact Atlantic Canada on Sunday...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 22.3 N
And longitude 61.3 W... About 275 nautical miles or 505 km
North northeast of st maarteen. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 115 knots... 213 km/h... And central pressure at 948
MB. Bill is moving northwest at 16 knots... 30 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 20 9.00 AM 22.3N 61.3W 948 115 213
Aug 20 9.00 PM 24.0N 63.5W 942 120 222
Aug 21 9.00 AM 26.5N 65.7W 942 120 222
Aug 21 9.00 PM 29.4N 67.4W 942 120 222
Aug 22 9.00 AM 33.0N 68.0W 948 115 213
Aug 22 9.00 PM 36.6N 68.2W 952 110 204
Aug 23 9.00 AM 41.3N 66.3W 965 95 176 transitioning
Aug 23 9.00 PM 44.5N 62.2W 976 80 148 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 AM 49.2N 54.7W 987 65 120 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 PM 52.0N 43.9W 994 55 102 post-tropical
Aug 25 9.00 AM 55.4N 25.8W 994 55 102 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
At this point it is too early for warnings to be issued as Bill
remains well to our south.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Given the current CHC track hurricane Bill is expected to impact
maritime marine areas later this weekend, however it is too early
To issue warnings.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis
Currently following nhc.

B. Prognostic
Following nhc on both track and intensity.

Bill is tracking northwestward north of the leeward islands and
Is expected to continue on this path for the next day or two. After
that a deep-layer trough is forecast to move over the eastern
United States while an upper-level ridge builds over the Atlantic.
These two features will steer Bill northward and eventually
northeastward later in the forecast period. Track guidance is
Tightly clustered for the first 2 to 3 days but then becomes
divergent on both direction and speed.

Early cyclone phase space diagrams indicate Bill will begin to
undergo extra-tropical transition on the 23rd and will be completed
early on the 24th.

C. Public weather
Nothing to say at this point.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
20/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
23/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 60 30 30
23/12Z 225 225 120 175 120 120 70 90 75 60 30 30
24/00Z 225 225 150 120 120 120 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 60 60 0 0
25/00Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0


End March/bowyer




WOCN31 CWHX 201200
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT THURSDAY
20 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

...HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 N
AND LONGITUDE 61.3 W... ABOUT 275 NAUTICAL MILES OR 505 KM
NORTH NORTHEAST OF ST MAARTEEN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS... 213 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 948
MB. BILL IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 20 9.00 AM 22.3N 61.3W 948 115 213
AUG 20 9.00 PM 24.0N 63.5W 942 120 222
AUG 21 9.00 AM 26.5N 65.7W 942 120 222
AUG 21 9.00 PM 29.4N 67.4W 942 120 222
AUG 22 9.00 AM 33.0N 68.0W 948 115 213
AUG 22 9.00 PM 36.6N 68.2W 952 110 204
AUG 23 9.00 AM 41.3N 66.3W 965 95 176 TRANSITIONING
AUG 23 9.00 PM 44.5N 62.2W 976 80 148 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 AM 49.2N 54.7W 987 65 120 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 PM 52.0N 43.9W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 9.00 AM 55.4N 25.8W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AS BILL
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GIVEN THE CURRENT CHC TRACK HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MARITIME MARINE AREAS LATER THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE WARNINGS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY FOLLOWING NHC.

B. PROGNOSTIC
FOLLOWING NHC ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

BILL IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL STEER BILL NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS BUT THEN BECOMES
DIVERGENT ON BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED.

EARLY CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE BILL WILL BEGIN TO
UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ON THE 23RD AND WILL BE COMPLETED
EARLY ON THE 24TH.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NOTHING TO SAY AT THIS POINT.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
20/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
23/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 60 30 30
23/12Z 225 225 120 175 120 120 70 90 75 60 30 30
24/00Z 225 225 150 120 120 120 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 60 60 0 0
25/00Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0


END MARCH/BOWYER