Hurricane Earl Effecting the Lesser Antilles Update 2

000
WTNT32 KNHC 292046
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
500 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL STRENGTHENS...HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 59.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM E OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST.  EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL
PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY MONDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.  THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.  RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT42 KNHC 292052
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF EARL HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.  SEVERAL CURVED BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN SURROUNDING
A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE.  THERE ARE NO HINTS OF AN EYE IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...HOWEVER AN EYE IS APPARENT IN RECENT RADAR
IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE AND WAS ALSO REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT A
FEW HOURS AGO.  ALTHOUGH THE PLANE DID NOT FIND HIGHER FLIGHT-LEVEL
OR SFMR WINDS THAN IT DID THIS MORNING...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE
REPORTED WAS LOWER ON EACH SUCCESSIVE FIX AND WAS DOWN TO 978 MB.
BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...
AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES...THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT.  A NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT ON A
RESEARCH MISSION SHOULD BE IN EARL SHORTLY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
AIR FORCE C-130 MISSION BETWEEN 0000 AND 0600 UTC.

THE CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT TODAY YIELD AN INITIAL
MOTION OF ABOUT 285/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  THE FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  EARL IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE HURRICANE
SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN 36-48 HOURS.  EARL IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO
GREAT LAKES REGION IN 4-5 DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES
WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE FORWARD SPEED OF EARL AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN
FASTER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF AND THE OFFICIAL CONTINUES TO BE FASTER
THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 72 HOURS.

THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RATHER FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER THE SYSTEM.  THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL
MODELS SHOW EARL REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.  LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/2100Z 17.6N  59.5W    75 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 18.0N  61.3W    90 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 18.9N  63.3W   100 KT
 36HR VT     31/0600Z 20.3N  65.1W   110 KT
 48HR VT     31/1800Z 22.1N  66.9W   115 KT
 72HR VT     01/1800Z 27.3N  70.2W   115 KT
 96HR VT     02/1800Z 33.5N  71.5W   105 KT
120HR VT     03/1800Z 40.0N  68.0W    90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG