Hurricane Irene A Potentially Historic Storm No.3

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WTNT34 KNHC 270257
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...IRENE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LASHING THE CAROLINA COAST...AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS

.....LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WEATHERFLOW AUTOMATED
STATION REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H...AND A GUST
TO 64 MPH...104 KM/H AT THE FORT MACON STATE PARK NEAR ATLANTIC
BEACH NORTH CAROLINA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE
AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
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FXUS61 KCAR 270225
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1025 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HURRICANE IRENE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY

MONDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MORE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER COULD REACH DOWNEAST AREAS LATER TONIGHT WITH LOW
CLOUDS MOVING ONSHORE. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH
MORE EXTENSIVE FOG ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S DOWNEAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR SATURDAY...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS / FOG WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUD IN ADVANCE OF
IRENE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD COASTAL REGIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION A FRONT PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SLIGHT RISK OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING
UP AS WELL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST AND BE IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE ELSEWHERE.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --PRIMARY FOCUS IS HURRICANE IRENE. CURRENT HURRICANE CENTER TRACK

TAKE IRENE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND THEN NORTHWARD ALONG
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO NEW JERSEY COAST SUNDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF TRACK IS
SIMILAR BUT A LITTLE FASTER. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS TRACK IS
FURTHER TO THE EAST. CONSENSUS OF MODELS KEEPS THE TRACK CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST AS IRENE APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND SO THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND. THIS WILL REDUCE THE INTENSITY
MORE THAN IF THE STORM TRACK WAS FURTHER TO THE EAST. NEVERTHELESS
WITH THE CURRENT TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME GUSTS
TO HURRICANE FORCE. FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE TCMWIND TOOL OVERLAID
ON THE GFS TO INITIALIZE THE GRIDS. WILL DECREASE THE TCM WINDS BY
25 PERCENT OVER LAND. WILL ALSO HAND EDIT THE GRIDS. FOR WIND GUST
WILL USE 125 PERCENT OF THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR POPS HAVE
USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12...SREF AND THE GFS40. THE GMOS WAS USED
FOR TEMPERATURE AND WIND GRIDS. A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GMOS WAS
USED FOR WIND UP TO 12Z SUNDAY WHEN A TRANSITION TO THE TCM WIND
TOOL WAS MADE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.-- End Changed Discussion --