Major (Category 4) Hurricane Ophelia and The Extratropical Cyclone

WOCN31 CWHX 012354 CCA
Tropical cyclone information statement corrected by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada
At 8:54 PM ADT Saturday 1 October 2011
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Tropical cyclone information statement for:
      Newfoundland
      Nova Scotia.

      For hurricane Ophelia.

      The next statement will be issued by 3:00 AM ADT.

      **corrected for initial intensity**

      Hurricane Ophelia tracking northward this weekend - affects in
      Parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland late Sunday and Monday.

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==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 9:00 PM ADT.

Location: near 32.8 north 62.1 west.
About 245 kilometres east-northeast of Bermuda.
Maximum sustained winds: near 215 km/hour.
Present movement: north at 45 km/hour.
Minimum central pressure: 944 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Ophelia is forecast to remain at or near category-three intensity
into the night.  Meanwhile an unrelated non-tropical weather system
with a frontal zone extending into the tropics will remain nearly
stationary over Nova Scotia and Western Newfoundland for the
remainder of the weekend.  Ophelia and the rain associated with it is
not forecast to move into Southeastern Newfoundland until Monday
morning.

Computer models are showing different scenarios for Ophelia's track -
ranging from the Burin Peninsula in Newfoundland to 200 kilometres
south of the Avalon.

A. Wind.

Greatest chance for strong winds from Ophelia is over the Burin and
Avalon peninsulas of Newfoundland.  At this point in time, there is
about a 60% chance of tropical storm force winds over the Avalon,
therefore a tropical storm watch has been issued.  Tropical storm
force winds are approximately 60 gusting to 90 km/h.  Chance of
hurricane-force gusts (120 km/h) in this area remains low at 5-10%.

B. Rainfall.

Rainfall warnings are in effect for most of Nova Scotia and Prince
Edward Island in relation to the rain from the stalled non-tropical
system.

This stalled frontal system could tap in to some of Ophelia's
moisture tonight through Monday giving the possibility of additional
heavy rainfall over Eastern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
Rainfall directly from Ophelia is expected over Eastern Newfoundland.
Expect a 4 to 6 hour period of heavy rainfall over these regions
Monday morning.  50 to 75 millimetres is possible with rainfall rates
up to 20 millimetres/hour.

C. Surge/waves.

Waves will be a concern along the South Coast of Newfoundland Monday.
We are still establishing details of what to expect in terms of wave
heights, but a range of 5 to 7 metres is likely along the South Coast
of Newfoundland - Fortune bay and east.  Ocean swell will also begin
to reach the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia later Sunday and Monday.
Incident swell height of 3 metres breaking in the 4-metre
(10-14-foot) range is possible late Sunday night along the Atlantic
coast of Nova Scotia.  With regard to storm surge, 40 to 60 cm is
possible Monday morning around the Avalon and Burin peninsulas.
This should not pose significant problems but a farther-north track
would necessitate an increase in forecast water levels.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Given that Ophelia's expected track brings it near southeastern
Maritimes marine areas by Sunday evening, a storm warning has been
issued for Laurentian Fan.  Storm or possibly hurricane force winds
could effect the fan and parts of the Grand Banks Monday.

Large waves are expected in the offshore - especially to the right
(southeast) and close to Ophelia's track as it moves into Canadian
waters.  Greatest threat for large waves is over the Grand Banks and
the Laurentian Fan area.  Wave heights up to 10 metres are possible.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.
- strength and predicted wind radii table.
- hurricane track information map.
- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/FOGARTY/BORGEL

000
WTNT31 KNHC 012340
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
800 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

...OPHELIA INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT PASSES
EAST OF BERMUDA...

......AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
BY BERMUDA RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST.
OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  OPHELIA
IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE.  GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY...WITH RAPID
WEAKENING LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY. 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.