Tropical storm Leslie a potential long range threat to the region update two

000
WTNT32 KNHC 040256
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 03 2012

...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...BUT NOT MOVING MUCH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST.  LESLIE IS
NEARLY STATIONARY...AND A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR SO.  SWELLS WILL ALSO AFFECT BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THESE
SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT42 KNHC 040256
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 03 2012

WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO KEEP THE STORM FROM BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION.  HOWEVER...A
RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATES THAT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING HAS
OCCURRED...AND BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT.  THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THE SHEAR RELAXING SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS.  LATER ON...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INSISTENT THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS THE GFS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED AND
SYMMETRICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE BECOMING ESTABLISHED
OVER LESLIE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE LATEST LGEM AND SHIPS PREDICTIONS.

MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE STORM
HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE...IF AT ALL...SO THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS STATIONARY.  LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUITE SLOWLY IN A
GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION WHILE IT REMAINS IN VERY WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BY ABOUT 5
DAYS...THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AND AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD INDUCE A SLIGHTLY FASTER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN.

BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT WAVES GREATER THAN 12 FEET HIGH EXTEND
SOME 300-400 N MI FROM THE CENTER.  DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...LARGE SWELLS
PROPAGATING AWAY FROM LESLIE WILL AFFECT BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 24.0N  63.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  04/1200Z 24.6N  63.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  05/0000Z 25.3N  63.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  05/1200Z 25.8N  63.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  06/0000Z 26.3N  63.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  07/0000Z 27.2N  63.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  08/0000Z 28.5N  64.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 31.0N  65.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH