Tropical Storm Andrea Update One

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TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
500 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013

THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS NOW NEAR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION. ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THIS MORNING...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
FOUND AN INNER WIND CORE...WITH SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 55
KT ABOUT 20 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER AND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 71 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 993 MB. ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WAS A SHOALING CONTRIBUTION TO THE SFMR
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KT. NO ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/15. ANDREA SHOULD ACCELERATE INTO THE
WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE U. S. EAST COAST AND NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
EASTWARD AND MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC...WITH THIS
GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING UNTIL DISSIPATION. WHILE THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOME SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED...THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD ONE.

ANDREA SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES OVER AND
NEAR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE UNTIL
DISSIPATION AROUND 120 HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
CONVECTION COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
COMPLETE...WHICH COULD CAUSE ANDREA TO HAVE A POST-TROPICAL PHASE
BEFORE IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON THIS
ADVISORY. BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME
POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATOPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO
EXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
OUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TONIGHT FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 29.5N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR COAST
12H 07/0600Z 31.9N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/1800Z 35.6N 78.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 08/0600Z 39.8N 73.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1800Z 43.8N 67.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1800Z 46.6N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1800Z 46.0N 29.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN

WOCN31 CWHX 061745

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:04 PM ADT THURSDAY
6 JUNE 2013.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
ATLANTIC PROVINCES.
FOR TROPICAL STORM ANDREA.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 PM ADT.

REMNANTS OF ANDREA TO BRING POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND MODERATE
WINDS TO ATLANTIC CANADA THIS WEEKEND.
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==DISCUSSION==

1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3.00 PM ADT.
LOCATION: 29.1 NORTH 83.8 WEST.
ABOUT 175 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF TAMPA, FLORIDA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 90 KM/HOUR.
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHEAST NEAR 20 KM/H.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
WE NOW BEGIN REGULAR UPDATES ON TROPICAL STORM ANDREA AS IT MOVES
TOWARD EASTERN CANADA DIRECTION. THIS STORM WILL BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND DEVELOP A DISTINCT
WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND AHEAD OF THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE.
THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE MARITIMES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE
FRIDAY OVER NOVA SCOTIA. THE CENTRE OF THE REMNANT LOW COULD TRACK
JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA OR AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK.
A FARTHER NORTH TRACK WILL BRIEFLY BRING A MUGGY AIRMASS AND PRODUCE
SOME MODERATE WINDS OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND PEI. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY.

A. WIND.
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WINDS WITH THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA AT
THIS TIME. BY EARLY FRIDAY WE WILL HAVE SOME DETAILS ON WHAT TO
EXPECT.

B. RAINFALL.
THE PRIMARY FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE RAINFALL.
EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER PARTS OF THE MARITIME PROVINCES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK. CURRENTLY WE EXPECT THE TRACK OF THE CENTRE OF THE LOW TO BE
NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA, SO NOVA SCOTIA CURRENTLY STANDS TO SEE THE
MOST RAIN FROM IT. AS MENTIONED, A TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL NEW
BRUNSWICK (NORTHERN SCENARIO) WOULD MEAN HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THAT
PROVINCE. RAINFALL WARNINGS (GREATER THAN 50 MILLIMETRES) MAY BE
ISSUED ON FRIDAY FOR SOME REGIONS.

C. SURGE/WAVES.
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A TRACK THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK WOULD RESULT IN SOME MODERATE WAVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND BAY OF FUNDY REGION BUT NOTHING TO
CAUSE CONCERN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, STAY TUNED IN CASE THE STORM
INTENSIFIES SOMEWHAT OFF THE U.S. COAST WHICH IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.
IN ANY CASE, THE LOW WILL BE PRIMARILY NON-TROPICAL IN NATURE.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE QUITE LIKELY WITH THE SYSTEM OVER MARITIME
WATERS, AND EVENTUALLY OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ON SUNDAY.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.
- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.
- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.
- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/FOGARTY