Tropical Storm Gabrielle a potential long range threat to the region Update Two

000
WTNT42 KNHC 121432
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013
1100 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED
NEAR THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE. GIVEN THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE
CENTER AND THE CONVECTION...AND THE PRESENCE OF A CURVED CONVECTIVE
BAND TO THE EAST...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE WINDS ARE UP TO 35
KNOTS. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...AND CONVECTION COULD EASILY BE REMOVED AGAIN. ON THAT
BASIS...GABRIELLE COULD EXPERIENCE SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES NEAR ATLANTIC CANADA.

GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE GABRIELLE TO RECURVE AND TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC FORECAST
IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 33.9N  67.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 35.0N  67.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 38.0N  67.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 43.0N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WOCN31 CWHX 121145
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:48 AM ADT THURSDAY
12 SEPTEMBER 2013.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
      NEWFOUNDLAND
      NOVA SCOTIA
      PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
      QUEBEC MARITIME.

      FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE.

      THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT.

      GABRIELLE CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA: WILL INTERACT WITH
      FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BRING HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE MARITIMES
      AND NEWFOUNDLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

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==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: NEAR 33.8 NORTH 67.8 WEST, OR ABOUT 330 KILOMETRES 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 55 KM/H.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHWEST AT 11 KM/H.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1010 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

GABRIELLE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF BERMUDA AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT 
NORTHWESTWARD.  THIS FEATURE WILL START ACCELERATING NORTHWARD TODAY 
BEFORE IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS 
FROM WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TO NEW BRUNSWICK TO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM - COMPLETELY SEPARATE FROM GABRIELLE - WILL 
LIKELY GIVE HEAVY RAINFALL TO PARTS OF NEW BRUNSWICK AGAIN TODAY.

AS GABRIELLE MOVES NORTHWARD TODAY, ITS TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED 
TO BE DRAWN TOWARD THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A SECOND AREA 
OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD REACH THE SOUTH SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY 
MORNING.  THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC 
COAST, EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA, PEI AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND LATER IN THE 
DAY.  WHILE COMPUTER GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS ON SHOWING THIS 
INTERACTION, THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 
MODELS REGARDING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR.  THAT SAID, IT 
IS LIKELY THAT RAINFALL WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE 
FOREMENTIONED AREAS ONCE THE SCENARIO BECOMES CLEARER.

WHILE GABRIELLE WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT, IT IS 
EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS AGAIN TODAY.  THAT SAID, THE 
STORM CENTRE ITSELF IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF A DIRECT IMPACT 
ON THE REGION, AS MOST OF ITS ENERGY WILL GO INTO STRENGTHENING THE 
EXISTING FRONTAL TROUGH ON FRIDAY.  WHAT IS LEFT OF GABRIELLE'S 
CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY CLIP EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY THEN 
MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE ORIGINAL STORM CENTER MAY BE BARELY DISCERNABLE AT THAT TIME AS 
ITS ENERGY WILL HAVE BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.

A. WIND.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, MOST OF GABRIELLE'S MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN INTO THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE 
MARITIMES, WHICH ITSELF WILL GIVE A BLUSTERY DAY TO MANY REGIONS.
THE REMAINING CIRCULATION OF GABRIELLE COULD ENHANCE THE WINDS
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TRACK OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND CAPE
BRETON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 KM/H POSSIBLE. 
THESE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON SATURDAY.

B. RAINFALL.

SEE FIRST SECTION ABOVE FOR DESCRIPTION OF THE COMPLICATED 
INTERACTION EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM GABRIELLE AND 
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  RAINFALL WARNINGS IF 
REQUIRED COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY ONCE THE SCENARIO BECOMES 
CLEARER.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF GABRIELLE AND CURRENT TIDAL CYCLE OVER 
THE REGION, SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED.  SOME HEAVIER 
SURF IS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND CAPE BRETON AS WELL AS 
SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND WITH THE PASSAGE OF GABRIELLE'S REMAINING 
CIRCULATION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MARITIME WATERS IN THE PATH OF 
GABRIELLE FOR FRIDAY.  GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF 
GABRIELLE OVER SOUTHERN MARITIME WATERS EARLY ON FRIDAY, THEN SPREAD 
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND TO NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS LATE FRIDAY INTO 
SATURDAY.  THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE 
REMAINING CIRCULATION OF GABRIELLE WHEN IT CROSSES MARITIMES AND 
NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS LATER ON FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 6 
METERS ARE POSSIBLE WHEN GABRIELLE ENTERS CANADIAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE 
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS 
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/COUTURIER/BORGEL

Thursday 12 September 2013.
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Special weather statement for:
=new= Queens County P.E.I.
=new= Kings County P.E.I.

      Potential for significant rainfall Friday.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
As Gabrielle begins to track northward today, its tropical moisture
is expected to be drawn toward a frontal system currently over New
Brunswick bringing heavy rain to the region.  The rain is expected to
spread northeastward through the day with the heaviest rain reaching
Eastern Prince Edward Island by Friday afternoon.  While computer
guidance is unanimous on showing this interaction, there are still
some differences between the models regarding rainfall amounts and
its location.  Rainfall warnings may be required once the scenario
becomes clearer.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End
WOCN11 CWHX 120749
Special weather statement issued by Environment Canada at 4:49 AM ADT
Thursday 12 September 2013.
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Special weather statement for:
=new= Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
=new= Halifax County - east of Porters Lake
=new= Lunenburg County
=new= Queens County
=new= Shelburne County
=new= Colchester County - Truro and south
=new= Colchester County - Cobequid Bay
=new= Colchester County North
=new= Pictou County
=new= Antigonish County
=new= Guysborough County
=new= Cape Breton.

      Potential for significant rainfall Friday.
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==discussion==
As Gabrielle begins to track northward today, its tropical moisture
is expected to be drawn toward a frontal system currently over New
Brunswick bringing heavy rain to the region which could reach the
south shore of Nova Scotia by Friday morning.  The rain is expected
to spread to the rest of the Atlantic coast and Eastern Nova Scotia
by late in the day Friday.  While computer guidance is unanimous on
showing this interaction, there are still some differences between
the models regarding rainfall amounts and its location.  That said,
it is likely that rainfall warnings will be required for some of
these forementioned areas once the scenario becomes clearer.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End