Here comes Hurricane Arthur (Cat. 2) Update One
000
WTNT41 KNHC 040301
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014
The eye of Arthur is about to make landfall near Cape Lookout,
North Carolina. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 94 kt and SFMR winds of 79 kt
in the southeastern eyewall. The lowest reported central pressure
was 976 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity was
increased to 85 kt. Coastal radar data indicates a well-defined
20-25 n mi diameter eye is present, and the eye is also apparent in
infrared satellite imagery.
Arthur is accelerating toward the northeast due to the approach of
a baroclinic trough over the northeastern United states, and the
initial motion is now 035/16. A continued northeastward motion and
acceleration are expected during the next 24-36 hours. The
forecast track calls for the center to cross coastal North Carolina
during the next several hours, pass southeast of New England in
about 24 hours, and be near or over western Nova Scotia in about 36
hours. After that, the westerlies are expected to steer Arthur or
its remnants across Newfoundland into the North Atlantic. The
forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the
center of the guidance envelope for the first 72 hours.
Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 hours
as the eye of the hurricane crosses coastal North Carolina and the
adjacent northwestern Atlantic. After that, Arthur is expected to
undergo extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete
by the time the cyclone reaches Nova Scotia. After passing Nova
Scotia, a post-tropical Arthur should weaken rapidly over the
North Atlantic.
The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 34.6N 76.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 36.7N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 40.0N 70.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 43.7N 66.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/0000Z 46.2N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/0000Z 51.5N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/0000Z 57.5N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0000Z 60.0N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Beven
12:03 AM ADT Friday 04 July 2014
Tropical storm watch in effect for:
WTNT41 KNHC 040301
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014
The eye of Arthur is about to make landfall near Cape Lookout,
North Carolina. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 94 kt and SFMR winds of 79 kt
in the southeastern eyewall. The lowest reported central pressure
was 976 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity was
increased to 85 kt. Coastal radar data indicates a well-defined
20-25 n mi diameter eye is present, and the eye is also apparent in
infrared satellite imagery.
Arthur is accelerating toward the northeast due to the approach of
a baroclinic trough over the northeastern United states, and the
initial motion is now 035/16. A continued northeastward motion and
acceleration are expected during the next 24-36 hours. The
forecast track calls for the center to cross coastal North Carolina
during the next several hours, pass southeast of New England in
about 24 hours, and be near or over western Nova Scotia in about 36
hours. After that, the westerlies are expected to steer Arthur or
its remnants across Newfoundland into the North Atlantic. The
forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the
center of the guidance envelope for the first 72 hours.
Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 hours
as the eye of the hurricane crosses coastal North Carolina and the
adjacent northwestern Atlantic. After that, Arthur is expected to
undergo extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete
by the time the cyclone reaches Nova Scotia. After passing Nova
Scotia, a post-tropical Arthur should weaken rapidly over the
North Atlantic.
The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 34.6N 76.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 36.7N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 40.0N 70.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 43.7N 66.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/0000Z 46.2N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/0000Z 51.5N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/0000Z 57.5N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0000Z 60.0N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Beven
12:03 AM ADT Friday 04 July 2014
Tropical storm watch in effect for:
- Queens County P.E.I.
Tropical storm conditions possible - early morning Saturday to evening Saturday.
Tropical storm-force winds of possible 60 gusting to 90 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Arthur may occur over the above regions.
Arthur is expected to be a strong post-tropical storm when it affects the Maritimes Saturday. Areas within the watch areas could see winds gusting to 90 km/h with some areas seeing higher gusts.
Forecaster Hatt.
Tropical storm-force winds of possible 60 gusting to 90 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Arthur may occur over the above regions.
Arthur is expected to be a strong post-tropical storm when it affects the Maritimes Saturday. Areas within the watch areas could see winds gusting to 90 km/h with some areas seeing higher gusts.
Forecaster Hatt.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds near 65 km/h or more) are possible over parts of the region within 36 hours.
By nature a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.
By nature a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.
12:03 AM ADT Friday 04 July 2014
Tropical storm watch in effect for:
Tropical storm watch in effect for:
- Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Tropical storm conditions possible - early morning Saturday to evening Saturday.
Tropical storm-force winds of possible 60 gusting to 90 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Arthur may occur over the above regions.
Arthur is expected to be a strong post-tropical storm when it affects the Maritimes Saturday. Areas within the watch areas could see winds gusting to 90 km/h with some areas seeing higher gusts.
Forecaster Hatt.
Tropical storm-force winds of possible 60 gusting to 90 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Arthur may occur over the above regions.
Arthur is expected to be a strong post-tropical storm when it affects the Maritimes Saturday. Areas within the watch areas could see winds gusting to 90 km/h with some areas seeing higher gusts.
Forecaster Hatt.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds near 65 km/h or more) are possible over parts of the region within 36 hours.
By nature a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.
By nature a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.
12:03 AM ADT Friday 04 July 2014
Tropical storm watch in effect for:
Tropical storm watch in effect for:
- Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
Tropical storm conditions possible - early morning Saturday to evening Saturday.
Tropical storm-force winds of possible 60 gusting to 90 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Arthur may occur over the above regions.
Arthur is expected to be a strong post-tropical storm when it affects the Maritimes Saturday. Areas within the watch areas could see winds gusting to 90 km/h with some areas seeing higher gusts.
Forecaster Hatt.
Tropical storm-force winds of possible 60 gusting to 90 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Arthur may occur over the above regions.
Arthur is expected to be a strong post-tropical storm when it affects the Maritimes Saturday. Areas within the watch areas could see winds gusting to 90 km/h with some areas seeing higher gusts.
Forecaster Hatt.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds near 65 km/h or more) are possible over parts of the region within 36 hours.
By nature a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.
By nature a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.
8:45 PM ADT Thursday 03 July 2014
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
NEW BRUNSWICK
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
For hurricane Arthur.
The next statement will be issued by 3:00 AM ADT.
Arthur and front to combine giving wind and rain to Atlantic Canada this weekend.
1. Summary of basic information at 9.00 PM ADT.
Location: 33.7 north 77.7 west.
About 260 kilometres southwest of Cape Hatteras.
Maximum sustained winds: 150 km/h.
Present movement: northeast near 20 km/h.
Minimum central pressure: 979 MB.
2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia. Additional watches or warnings may be issued overnight tonight.
Hurricane Arthur is moving northeastward not far off the U.S. East Coast. A trough of low pressure will be moving eastward from the Great Lakes, guiding Arthur toward Atlantic Canada. The nature of the trough approaching from the Great Lakes will make all the difference in Arthur's intensity, track and structure as it moves toward our region.
Landfall of Arthur may occur in the vicinity of Western Nova Scotia to the Fundy coast of New Brunswick Saturday morning. It is very likely that high wind and heavy rain will affect the Maritimes on Saturday. The details of the public impacts will be assessed further tonight.
The public should certainly pay close attention regarding weekend plans that may be sensitive to high wind and heavy rain conditions. It is emphasized that updated forecasts should be consulted for the latest forecast decisions and rationale. These are issued four times daily.
As usual, the track map forecast implies detailed location and storm intensity however there is still considerable uncertainty.
A. Wind.
Significant wind is possible for portions of Atlantic Canada this weekend especially for regions to the south and east of the storm track. Strong wind gusts could exceed 100 km/h to the right of the track on Saturday. It is too early to confidently say where in Atlantic Canada these strongest winds will be, however Atlantic coastal Nova Scotia regions are currently more likely to experience the windier side of the storm.
B. Rainfall.
Arthur will spread rain throughout Atlantic Canada during the weekend where significant rainfall amounts are likely. The area of rain will reach the southern Maritimes early Saturday and then spread to Newfoundland overnight Saturday to Sunday morning. Details in the nature of the interaction of the cold front with Arthur as well as the exact track will determine where the highest rainfall amounts will occur. At the moment general amounts of 50 to 100 millimetres are likely with a good probability of higher amounts near and to the left of Arthur's track. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island have a higher risk of receiving the heaviest rainfall. The rainfall rates are of particular concern since they could exceed 15 millimetres per hour during a period of several hours.
C. Surge/waves.
Storm surge and large waves are possible with Arthur. High waves and pounding surf can be expected along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia Saturday morning and afternoon with the arrival of storm. High waves are also expected along the Southern Gulf of St Lawrence coastlines Saturday afternoon and evening.
High water levels at the coast could be an issue if the arrival of Arthur coincides with high tide. This timing will be assessed further as we get closer to the storm's arrival. Storm surge warnings may be required for Southeastern New Brunswick, the Northumberland Strait and parts of the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia.
3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.
Gale warnings have been issued for southwestern marine waters with the approach of Arthur Friday night. These gales will be expanded to other marine areas for Saturday. Storm warnings and possibly hurricane warnings could be required for portions of the Atlantic Canadian marine district. These warnings would be issued at 3.00 AM Friday.
Mariners should remain on alert and stay tuned for forecast updates.
Visit weather.gc.ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest:
- forecast position, central pressure table.
- strength and predicted wind radii table.
- hurricane track information map.
- technical discussion.
Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings issued by Environment Canada for your area.
Forecaster(s): couturier/fogarty/hatt
posted by Advackia at 8:19 PM
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