Thursday, September 29, 2016

Hurricane Matthew (category one) a potential long range threat to the region Update One

WTNT44 KNHC 300255

1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Matthew is
strengthening. The estimated minimum pressure from a dropsonde
is 983 mb. The SFMR instrument measured an isolated peak wind of
77 kt in the northwest quadrant near the center. However, the
flight-level winds measured in this mission so far only support an
initial intensity of 70 kt.

The cloud pattern is much better organized than 24 hours ago, and
a recent SSMIS pass showed an eye feature. This was confirmed by the
crew onboard the reconnaissance aircraft which reported a circular
22 n mi eye open to the south.  Images from Curacao radar also show
the center of the cyclone becoming better defined.  However, since
some southwesterly wind shear is still affecting the cyclone, only a
slight strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours.
After that time, the shear is forecast to relax some, and the
overall environment is expected to be more conducive for
intensification. The NHC forecast continues to be above the model
consensus, and is very similar to the forecast issued by my

Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and radar from Curacao indicate
that Matthew is moving toward the west or perhaps just south of due
west at about 12 kt. A strong ridge to the north is forecast to keep
Matthew moving westward across the southern portion of the Central
Caribbean for the next 2 days. After that time, Matthew will be
located on the western side of the high and ahead of a mid-latitude
trough over the Gulf of Mexico.  This steering pattern should force
the cyclone to turn toward the north at about 5 to 7 kt.  The NHC
track forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus, which in
fact has not changed very much today, and does not deviate much from
the previous forecast.

Global models, primarily the GFS and the ECMWF, continue to show a
strong hurricane in the vicinity of Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti in 3 or
4 days.


INIT  30/0300Z 14.1N  68.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 14.0N  70.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 13.9N  72.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 13.8N  73.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 14.1N  74.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 16.4N  75.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 19.7N  75.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 23.5N  75.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

Forecaster Avila

FXUS61 KCAR 300215
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1015 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016


High pressure will remain across the area tonight through Friday.
The high will slowly lift northeast of the region Saturday into
Sunday as low pressure tracks off the Mid-Atlantic coast......


The upper low in the Midwest will begin to lift out Sunday night
into Monday carrying moisture northeast and increasing the chances
for rain over our area on Monday. Upper level ridging will then
build across Monday night into Tuesday pressing moisture back south
and bringing a trend toward clearer skies from south to north. High
pressure both surface and aloft should then bring clear and mild
weather across the region Wednesday through Thursday. Our focus late
in the week and going into next weekend will be on the track of
Hurricane Matthew which is being carried up the east coast by some
of our forecast guidance. The eventual track will be determined by
the position of the upper level ridge over the northeast in
combination with the timing of a trough moving in form the Midwest.
If the hurricane approaches the northeast, it could affect our weather beginning early next weekend......


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