Watching Out For That Fella Jose Update Two

000
WTNT42 KNHC 172040
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

The satellite appearance of Jose has generally changed little
during the past several hours.  Microwave data indicate that the
center of circulation is located on the south side of the main area
of deep convection, likely due to strong southerly shear.  The
current intensity is held at 80 kt based on the earlier aircraft
data.  The initial wind radii have been adjusted outward in
accordance with the ASCAT data from a few hours ago.

The strong wind shear currently affecting Jose is expected to
continue for another day or so.  Although the shear is expected to
slacken beyond that time, Jose is forecast to cross the north wall
of the Gulf Stream current by then and move into a progressively
drier environment.  These conditions should cause a slow weakening
trend through the period, and the NHC intensity forecast is largely
an update of the previous one.  It should be noted, however, that
despite the expected weakening, the models suggest that Jose's outer
wind field will expand, which is typical for tropical cyclones that
move into the mid-latitudes.

The hurricane continues to move northward at 8 kt on the west side
of a subtropical ridge.  This general motion is expected to
persist for the next 2 to 3 days while the steering pattern holds.
Thereafter, a turn to the northeast and then east is predicted as a
trough currently over central Canada moves closer to Jose.  This
trough, however, is not expected to pick up Jose, and instead the
cyclone is expected to meander or drift southward by the end of the
forecast period.  The 5-day forecast position has been adjusted to
the southwest of the previous NHC prediction, but otherwise only
minor changes were made.

The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters will both be investigating
Jose this evening.  This valuable data will help assess the
hurricane's initial intensity and structure, and assist the models
in determining the future path and intensity of the hurricane.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore
of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts
from Delaware northward to New England, and any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of those impacts.  A tropical storm watch is now in
effect from the Delaware coast to southeastern Massachusetts.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North
Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose
through the next several days.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware
to southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New
England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Total
accumulations of three to five inches are expected over eastern Long
Island, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts,
including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.  Based on the current
forecast, the risk of flooding will be limited in scope.  Any
deviation to the left of the forecast track, however, could bring
heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long
Island, New York City, and New Jersey.  If this deviation
were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river
flooding would increase.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 31.5N  71.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 32.7N  71.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 34.3N  71.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 35.9N  71.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 37.7N  71.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 40.1N  69.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 39.7N  67.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 38.5N  67.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
FXUS61 KCAR 172114
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
514 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will remain over the area into Tuesday while
Hurricane Jose approaches southeast New England. Jose will turn
eastward and track south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday into
Thursday........

......SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

High pressure will remain ridged across the region Monday night,
while Hurricane Jose lifts toward southern New England.
Partly/mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of showers
is expected across northern areas Monday night. Mostly cloudy
skies with a chance of showers is expected Downeast Monday
night. High pressure will remain ridged north of the region
Tuesday into Wednesday, with Hurricane Jose to the south though
uncertainty still exists regarding the exact track of the
storm. Uncertainty also exists regarding rain chances Tuesday
into Wednesday. Stronger high pressure to the north would limit
rain amounts and the northern extent of rain. Weaker ridging
would allow more moisture to be drawn north. A coastal front or
convergence zone could develop across Downeast areas and help
focus precipitation. The better chances of rain and greater
rainfall totals are generally expected Downeast, with lesser
totals to the north. However, exact totals are still uncertain.
High pressure should begin to build south later Wednesday.
Rain chances should begin to decrease Wednesday afternoon, with
the most persistent rains Downeast. Fog, most extensive
Downeast, should be a concern both Monday night and Tuesday
night. Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly above
normal, levels Tuesday/Wednesday.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

The extended models have a significantly different solution for
the weather through most of the extended forecast. The GFS
continues moving Hurricane Jose across the southern portions of
the Gulf of Maine. Placing it east of Cape Cod and south of
Eastport at the start of the extended period. Then as the
extended period progresses drifts it to the southeast into the
north Atlantic. Jose is then forecasted to return to the Cape
Cod area early Monday morning. The ECMWF moves Jose into the
coastal areas of NY and NJ where its forecast to remain
stationary and to begin to fill, until it finally regresses into
Delmarva Sunday afternoon and dissipates. Through all of the
model differences with Jose, the models do agree that the state
of Maine will remain under a high pressure ridge for most of the
period with a chance for some showers and thunderstorms early
in the period for Downeast Maine. By the end of the period. Both
models are showing current tropical storm Maria east of Georgia
and southeast of Outer Banks of North Carolina moving north.

Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models,
however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used
NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor
tool.