Intense Hybrid Storm On The Way Update Two

000
FXUS61 KCAR 291503
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1103 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

An intense area of low pressure will pass to the west of the
area late tonight and Monday. The low will bring high wind to
the area along with rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

11 AM Update...Forecast remains on track with cloudy skies and
some spotty showers beginning to move into far western areas.
Only update was to raise dewpoints several degrees across the
area. Temps are on target.

Previous discussion...

A high impact weather event likely very late
tonight through Monday evening with the main concern for
damaging wind and power outages...

High pressure continues to retreat to the east across the
Maritimes today as low pressure develops along the North
Carolina coast. TS Philippe is expected to race off to the
northeast today and should be off the NC coast by this evening.
The 00Z models differ with the NAM taking Philippe into the Gulf
of Maine Monday morning as a warm core system and the GFS,
Canadian, and ECMWF take the low further west toward Long Island
or even as far west as northern NJ. The model soundings have a
very strong jet pushing into the Downeast coast late tonight
with 925H wind peaking out around or shortly after 12Z Monday
morning at 70-80 knots with a 100 kt jet at 700H. Local office
studies indicate that if the average Max wind below 850H at Bar
Harbor and Eastport is greater than 90 knots, the Eastport to
Fryeburg pressure gradient is greater than 7 mb, and the MOS
sustained wind is greater than 23 knots at Bar Harbor that here
is a high likelihood that high wind warning criteria will be
met. In this case, all three meet criteria and expect a
significant high wind event with wind damage and the potential
for widespread power outages. The strongest wind will be along
the coast, the outer islands, and across the higher terrain. The
wind will not be as strong further inland, but still likely
will cause trees to be downed and widespread power outages.
Plan to upgrade to high wind warnings for all of the CWA. The
strongest wind is expected Monday morning, but as the low pulls
away and the lapse rates steepen across northern areas may still
see some wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph into Monday evening. In
addition to the wind, there will be rain, but the rain will be
secondary to the wind and no river flooding is expected. There
will likely be ponding of water on roads, and with all the wind
some debris will likely collect in storm drains and culverts
and may lead to some local flooding. Smaller streams will also
likely see some rises and can`t rule out some isolated minor
flooding. Rainfall amounts will likely be in the 1 to 2 inch
range with locally higher amounts, and have mentioned some areas
of heavy rain late tonight into early Monday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Any lingering showers Monday evening will give way to partly
cloudy to mainly clear skies as strong low pressure moves north
of the region. Gusty southwest winds will continue across the
region Monday night. Tuesday will feature partly to mostly sunny
skies. Highs on Tuesday will range from the mid to upper 40s
north and low to mid 50s down east which is close to normal for
this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

High pressure will move east Tuesday night through Wednesday
with continued dry weather conditions and near seasonal
temperatures. A warm front approaches later Wednesday night
with increasing clouds and a few showers toward day break
Thursday. It could be cold enough up in the St John Valley for a
few snow snow showers at the start before changing to all rain
by early Thursday morning. Low pressure will move through
Quebec Thursday and Thursday night with showers likely in
advance of an approaching cold front. The front will cross the
region on Friday with a continued chance for showers. Much
cooler air will follow for the start of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NEAR TERM: LIFR to IFR conditions this morning will improve
some this afternoon to MVFR to low end VFR. Conditions will
lower again tonight into Monday to IFR to at times LIFR. Strong
surface wind expected late tonight into Monday along with LLWS.

SHORT TERM: Mainly VFR conditions Monday night through

Wednesday. Expect continued gusty southwest winds Monday night
into Tuesday. MVFR or lower conditions are expected in showers
by Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: Expecting a period of sustained wind of 50 to 55
knots with gusts of 65 to 70 knots possible Monday morning. Have
upgraded the storm watch to a hurricane force wind watch. Seas
will build to 20 to 25 feet on the coastal waters Monday.

SHORT TERM: Gale force winds will likely continue Monday night
before diminishing to small craft advisory levels Tuesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
     High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Monday for MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday
     afternoon for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...CB/Duda
Marine...CB/Duda

000
WTNT43 KNHC 291435
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

Philippe looks the best it ever has, possessing a well-defined
low-level center as seen in high-resolution GOES-16 visible
imagery, along with at least 45-kt sustained winds based on several
recent ship reports. However, the cyclone is sheared with the bulk
of the convective cloud shield having been displaced northeast of
the center due to southwesterly mid-/upper-level winds of 45-75 kt.

Although the exact center of Philippe was difficult to track
overnight, the current position is actually on the previous forecast
track. Philippe has been moving due east at about 25-27 kt for the
past few hours. However, the NHC model guidance is in decent
agreement that the cyclone will turn toward the northeast by this
afternoon ahead of an approaching frontal system and a powerful
deep-layer trough moving quickly eastward across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and Florida. The cold front is currently located only 90-100
nmi west of Philippe's center, and merger with the front along with
transition to a extratropical low pressure system is expected by 12
hours, if not sooner. As the aforementioned trough becomes more
negatively tilted over the next 24 hours, a strong extratropical low
is forecast to develop near or just east of the North Carolina Outer
Banks, pulling Philippe's circulation north-northeastward to
northward in the 12-24-hour period well offshore of the U.S east
coast. Absorption of Philippe's circulation into the larger
extratropical low is expected to be completed by 24 hours when the
larger low is located over New England. The official forecast track
lies to the right of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the
recent eastward jog, and lies along the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope near a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

Some additional slight strengthening is possible during the
next 12 hours or so, mainly due weak baroclinic forcing and the
faster forward speed that is forecast. However, most of the
baroclinic energy associated with the negatively tilted mid-latitude
trough is expected to remain to the west, triggering the development
of the above-mentioned significant extratropical coastal low. In
fact, some of the latent heat from Philippe's circulation will
likely get drawn into the larger extratropical low developing to its
northwest, aiding in that intensification process and increasing the
demise of Philippe after 12 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 27.8N  77.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 32.5N  72.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Caribou ME
614 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...A significant wind event expected late tonight through Monday
for all of northern and eastern Maine...

.Intensifying low pressure will pass west of the region late
tonight and Monday. This will result in damaging winds late
tonight and Monday, and the potential for widespread power
outages.

MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032-291815-
/O.CON.KCAR.HW.W.0002.171030T0600Z-171031T0000Z/
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Piscataquis-
Northern Washington-
Including the cities of Allagash, Clayton Lake, Madawaska,
Fort Kent, Frenchville, Presque Isle, Caribou, Van Buren,
Mars Hill, Baker Lake, Billy-Jack Depot, Baxter St Park,
Chamberlain Lake, Churchill Dam, Mount Katahdin, Millinocket,
East Millinocket, Patten, Medway, Houlton, Hodgdon, Sherman,
Smyrna Mills, Greenville, Monson, Blanchard, Lincoln, Howland,
Springfield, Dover-Foxcroft, Milo, Guilford, Danforth, Vanceboro,
and Topsfield
614 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS...Southeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. The
  wind will switch into the southwest Monday afternoon.

* TIMING...The wind will increase significantly after midnight
  tonight, and will continue through Monday.

* IMPACTS...The strong wind will blow down tree limbs and trees.
  Power outages are likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&
$$

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
613 AM EDT SUN OCT 29 2017

ANZ050>052-291815-
/O.CON.KCAR.HF.A.0001.171030T0600Z-171030T1800Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT, ME TO SCHOODIC POINT, ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT, ME TO STONINGTON, ME OUT
25 NM-
INTRA COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT, ME TO STONINGTON, ME-
613 AM EDT SUN OCT 29 2017

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...SOUTH 50 TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 KT.

* SEAS...20 TO 25 FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND 11 TO 16 FEET
  INTRA-COASTAL WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...
BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT
IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY
WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&
$$

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
541 AM EDT SUN OCT 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM TO BRING NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WIND
GUSTS TO THE COASTAL WATERS...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND BRING AT LEAST A COUPLE PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS TO
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 64 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF PORTLAND...
AND SO PART OF THE COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO A
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH.

ANZ150-152-292345-
/O.CON.KGYX.HF.A.0001.171030T0800Z-171030T1600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON, ME TO PORT CLYDE, ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE, ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH, ME OUT
25 NM-
541 AM EDT SUN OCT 29 2017

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 KT.

* SEAS...21 TO 26 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...
BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT
IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY
WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&
$$

10:39 AM ADT Sunday 29 October 2017
Wind warning in effect for:

St. Stephen and Northern Charlotte County
Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

A low pressure system near Cape Hatteras this morning will merge with the remnants of Tropical Storm Philippe later in the day, then rapidly intensify as it approaches New England tonight and Monday. Strong southeasterly winds will develop overnight tonight with gusts up to 90 km/h Monday morning. Winds will diminish slightly and shift to the southwest Monday afternoon.

High winds may toss loose objects or cause tree branches to break. Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions due to high winds.

Wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.weatheraspc.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

10:39 AM ADT Sunday 29 October 2017
Wind warning in effect for:

Yarmouth County
Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

A low pressure system near Cape Hatteras this morning will merge with the remnants of Tropical Storm Philippe later in the day, then rapidly intensify as it approaches New England tonight and Monday.

Strong southeasterly winds will develop overnight tonight with gusts up to 90 km/h Monday morning. Winds will shift to the southwest early Monday afternoon and diminish gradually.

High winds may toss loose objects or cause tree branches to break. Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions due to high winds.

Wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.weatheraspc.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.