Rain could push St. John River levels near 8.3 metres, Fredericton EMO says

Fredericton Mayor Mike O'Brien asked residents to respect the traffic measures in place because of the flood

CBC News · Posted: Apr 30, 2018 6:54 AM AT | Last Updated: 3 hours ago

As rain drenches the New Brunswick capital, the rise in the St. John River could rival the 8.3 metres reached during the major 2008 flood, an emergency official says.

River levels had been stable at about eight metres, but the rainfall  Monday is threatening to push the river to 8.3 metres, Wayne Tallon, the director of Fredericton's Emergency Measures Organization.

Tallon said his organization tries to anticipate water levels as best it can, but the rapid rise of the river late last week caught it off guard.

Flooding forces widespread road and office closures in Fredericton area
Road closures continue on Day 3 of St. John River floods
"We didn't anticipate the waters to rise that quickly," he said.

"I could literally see the water come up into that parking lot [from City Hall]."

He said he thinks the quick change in weather as well as heavy rains contributed to the rapid flooding.

"We really never had a spring," he said. "We went from winter to summer in 48 hours.

"It just surprised everybody."

'We'll get through this'

Fredericton Mayor Mike O'Brien asked residents to be patient and respect the traffic measures in place.

He said the city is not near the point of having to declare a state of emergency but noted the situation will likely stay the same for the rest of the week.

"We'll get through this … and hopefully at the end of this we can all meet downtown and have a pop," O'Brien said on Information Morning Fredericton on Monday.

Two shelters have been set up in Fredericton for people displaced by flooding and who have no access to temporary accommodations.

Fredericton residents can use the shelter at the Salvation Army on St. Mary's Street, and people from outlying areas can use a shelter on the UNB campus at 20 Bailey Drive.

River rising south of capital

Although water levels could hold at about eight metres in the Fredericton area, communities south of the city could experience rising water levels over the next 48 hours, said Geoffrey Downey  a spokesperson for the Department of Justice and Public Safety.

These include Maugerville, Sheffield and Jemseg by the St. John River, as well as Quispamsis, on the Kennebecasis River, he said.

People, animals scramble for safe ground as waters rise in Maugerville, N.B.
Flood risk in N.B. moving downstream with river levels expected to rise for next 48 hours
But he cautioned that water levels are on the rise across the province, so anyone living on the river system needs to be prepared.

"This is a dynamic situation and things can change," he said.

Better modelling needed

Both Tallon and O'Brien said that the city plans to talk to provincial partners about why their modelling didn't predict the rapid rising floodwaters.

"Obviously, the modelling that has worked very well and accurately over the years, couldn't keep up with it," Tallon said.

"I'm not dissatisfied, but we're working with technology that is not giving us the right information and the right time."