Erin downgraded to a Tropical Depression, remains a Threat to the Region

000
WTNT41 KNHC 281436
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Erin Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062019
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

Erin has become less organized this morning with the center exposed
and becoming more removed from the remaining deep convection.
Satellite intensity estimates have decreased and a blend of these
support an initial wind speed of 30 kt.  The northwesterly shear
that has been affecting Erin is forecast to decrease somewhat later
today and tonight, but given the current structure of the system,
little overall change in intensity is anticipated during that time.
If convection does not re-develop closer to the center later today,
Erin could become post-tropical. An alternate scenario is for the
circulation to become elongated and lose definition as a mid-
latitude trough approaches from the west.  The global models suggest
that the trough is likely to help Erin or its remnants deepen
somewhat as an extratropical low on Thursday.  The NHC intensity
forecast follows suit and shows little change in strength today,
then indicates that Erin or its remnants will become an
extratropical gale by 36 hours.

Erin is now moving north-northwestward at 11 kt. The dynamical model
guidance is in good agreement on Erin turning northward and then
northeastward by Thursday ahead of the aforementioned mid-latitude
trough.  Erin or its remnants are forecast to accelerate and reach
Nova Scotia in about 36 hours.  The guidance envelope has shifted
slightly westward, and the updated official forecast has been
adjusted accordingly.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 33.6N  72.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 35.5N  72.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 39.0N  70.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 43.8N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  30/1200Z 48.9N  62.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Caribou ME
726 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

MEZ011-015>017-029>032-281930-
/O.CON.KCAR.FF.A.0001.190829T0000Z-190829T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-
Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-
Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-
Including the cities of Lincoln, Howland, Springfield, Bangor,
Brewer, Orono, Old Town, Amherst, Aurora, Dedham, Eastbrook,
Great Pond, Orland, Calais, Grand Lake Stream, Wesley, Perry,
Princeton, Ellsworth, Bar Harbor, Bucksport, Castine, Eastport,
Machias, Cherryfield, Dover-Foxcroft, Milo, Guilford, Danforth,
Vanceboro, and Topsfield
726 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Central Highlands Maine, Coastal DownEast Maine,
  Far Eastern Maine, Interior DownEast Maine, and Penobscot
  Valley Maine, including the following areas, in Central
  Highlands Maine, Southern Piscataquis. In Coastal DownEast
  Maine, Coastal Hancock and Coastal Washington. In Far Eastern
  Maine, Northern Washington. In Interior DownEast Maine,
  Central Washington and Interior Hancock. In Penobscot Valley
  Maine, Central Penobscot and Southern Penobscot.

* From this evening through Thursday morning

* Around 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain is likely to fall tonight
  through Thursday morning, with locally higher amounts of 3 or
  more inches possible. This could result in localized flash
  flooding, especially in the higher terrain. More widespread
  minor low-land flooding is probable, especially in poor
  drainage and any urbanized areas.

* The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall between midnight and
  daybreak Thursday. Rainfall amounts will likely vary
  considerably across the region.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&
$$

8:31 AM ADT Wednesday 28 August 2019
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick:

Fundy National Park
Grand Lake and Queens County
Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County
Kent County
Kouchibouguac National Park
Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick
Saint John and County
St. Stephen and Northern Charlotte County
Sussex - Kennebecasis Valley and Kings County
Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

For Tropical Storm Erin.

The next information statement will be issued by 03:00 p.m. ADT.

Tropical Storm Erin will begin tracking northeastward toward the Maritimes later today. Erin is expected to transition to a post-tropical storm well before it reaches the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia early Friday morning. Erin will bring heavy rain to much of the region beginning Thursday and strong, gusty winds with its passage Thursday night into Friday.

1. Summary of basic information at 09:00 a.m. ADT.

Location: Near 33.0 North 72.7 West.

About distance 363 kilometres southeast of Cape Hatteras NC.

Maximum sustained winds: 65 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: North-northwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Minimum central pressure: 1004 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Tropical Storm Erin is expected to transition to a post-tropical system by the time it enters Canadian waters on Thursday. Rain associated with a trough of low pressure approaching from the west will spread over the western Maritimes early Thursday morning. As Erin approaches later on Thursday, some of its moisture will feed into this trough and likely enhance the rain intensity associated with it. The heavier rain and strongest winds associated directly with post-tropical Erin should reach the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia later Thursday evening.

a. Wind.

Some gusty winds will likely accompany post-tropical Erin, especially to those areas just to the right of its track early Friday morning. At this time it is not expected that these winds will reach warning criteria (i.e. gusts to 90 km/h or higher), but could still be strong enough to cause isolated power outages and minor damage, especially given that trees are still in full leaf.

b. Rainfall.

The combination of Post-Tropical Erin and its interaction with the trough of low pressure crossing the region on Thursday will combine to produce significant rainfall. Rainfall will likely meet or exceed warning criteria (50 mm or more in 24 hours) in parts of the Maritimes, especially those areas just north and west of Erin's track. Some isolated locations in these areas could possibly see total rainfall amounts in excess of 100 mm before the rain ends later Friday morning

c. Surge/Waves.

At this time, significant storm surge and coastal impacts from high waves are not expected. However, some higher than normal water levels and high surf are possible near and to the right of the Erin's track where it is expected to cross the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia on Friday.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale warnings have been issued for the southwestern Maritimes marine waters, where gale force southerlies up to 40 knots are expected by Thursday evening. These gale warnings will likely be extended to adjacent marine areas for Friday near and along Erin's path through Canadian waters.

Forecaster(s): Mercer/Borgel