Major Hurricane Teddy (Category Four) Could Pose A Long-Range Threat To The Region - Update One

                                           

000

WTNT35 KNHC 180236

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number  23

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020

1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...

...LARGE SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN

ATLANTIC INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.9N 54.7W

ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SE OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located

near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 54.7 West.  Teddy is moving

toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion

is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some additional strengthening is possible 

through Friday, with a weakening trend likely to begin this 

weekend.

Teddy is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward 

up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force 

winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser

Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should

spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and

the east coast of the United States by the weekend.  These swells

are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$

Forecaster Pasch

000

WTNT45 KNHC 180237

TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number  23

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020

1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

After a significant strengthening episode this afternoon, Teddy is 

maintaining Category Four intensity.  Observations from a NOAA 

Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a research mission into the 

hurricane this evening indicate that the maximum winds remain near 

120 kt.  Since Teddy should remain in a low-shear environment for 

the next day or so, additional strengthening could occur on Friday. 

An upper-level cyclone seen in water vapor images to the southeast 

of Bermuda and the cool wake of previous Hurricane Paulette could 

impede strengthening in a couple of days.  However, Teddy is likely 

to remain a dangerous major hurricane for the next 72 hours, 

including the time it passes closest to Bermuda.  Some fluctuations 

in strength due to eyewall replacements are possible during that 

period.

The hurricane has continued to move northwestward, or around 315/10 

kt.  Teddy should move along the southwestern periphery of a 

mid-level high during the next 2-3 days, and then turn northward 

around days 3-4 while moving through a weakness in the subtropical 

ridge.  Around the end of the forecast period, Teddy will probably 

interact with a deep mid-tropospheric cyclone in the vicinity of 

Nova Scotia.  This interaction will probably cause Teddy to bend 

somewhat toward the left around day 5, but there is significant 

uncertainty in the details of the track at that forecast time 

range.  It is also possible that the system will be losing 

tropical characteristics by the end of the period, but this 

remains to be seen.  

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this

weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or

Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near

the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge,

and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing.

2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of

the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and

the southeastern United States late this week and into the weekend.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 20.9N  54.7W  120 KT 140 MPH

 12H  18/1200Z 22.1N  55.7W  125 KT 145 MPH

 24H  19/0000Z 23.8N  57.1W  120 KT 140 MPH

 36H  19/1200Z 25.6N  58.8W  115 KT 130 MPH

 48H  20/0000Z 27.4N  60.8W  110 KT 125 MPH

 60H  20/1200Z 29.0N  62.6W  110 KT 125 MPH

 72H  21/0000Z 30.7N  63.5W  105 KT 120 MPH

 96H  22/0000Z 36.9N  62.2W   90 KT 105 MPH

120H  23/0000Z 44.0N  63.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$

Forecaster Pasch

000

FXUS61 KCAR 180116

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

916 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will stall near the coast overnight and slowly

exit across the Gulf of Maine Friday. High pressure will slowly

build east across the region Friday through Monday. Strong low

pressure may approach from the southeast on Tuesday........

.........LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Sunday night into Monday morning will be the last chilly night

through the long term with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s

across the North. Bangor region to Downeast will see Mid 30s to

Low 40s Monday AM. As we go into early week we will see an

elongated surface high pressure over the Eastern US that allows

us to stay with the fair weather into Tuesday morning. Aloft a

trough will be sliding east over the area while digging

southward that will become the main focus on whether we see

anything from Hurricane Teddy. Most of the operational guidance

show this trough digging south & trying to go negatively tilted

capturing Teddy, but where does this capture take place? That

will likely be the biggest factor on what we may or may not see

from Teddy. GFS & UKMET operational models continue to keep this

storm out to sea or into Nova Scotia with minimum impacts to

the forecast area. It is important to note these models have

slowly trended westward in their solutions. The Canadian &

ECMWF operational runs show a closer capture to us that would

result in some impacts but still seems to be the western

outliers. There is a ton of differences in the ensemble members

between both the Euro & GFS, that this forecasters confidence on

impacts to our area is very low at this time. We have added

chance pops due to the uncertainty but it will take a few more

days to hammer out the details. Otherwise temperatures remain at

or slightly above average from Wednesday into Thursday ahead of

a weak cold front dipping south from Quebec.

&&