Intense Ocean Storm Rages At Sea

297

FXUS61 KCAR 290232

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

932 PM EST Thu Jan 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will track well south of the region tonight into

Friday, with a trof extending back toward the coast. High

pressure will build toward the region Saturday, then cross the

region Sunday. Low pressure will approach from the south later

Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

930 PM Update: Models in the near term generally agree that

banding currently over NE and E Cntrl ptns of the FA will

move SSW durg the ovrngt. The question then becomes where will

banding pick-up ovr Downeast areas of the FA as strong

900-750mb frontogenesis commences with a Norlund like inverted

sfc trof xtndg NW from low pres well SSE ovr the open Atlc, as

energy alf conts to slide ovr this ptn of our Rgn with the

upper low crossing across the Gulf of ME. Models and meso-

models vary a little with this forcing, with the 12z dtmnstc

CanGem perhaps most ominous for coastal Hancock county durg the

erly morn hrs Fri. For now, will hold off on issuing any wntr wx

advs given this uncertainty of banding psn and the fact this

evolution will not completely reveal itself until well into the

upcoming mdngt shift.

Otherwise, fcst hrly temps/dwpts were updated into the late ngt

hrs based on trends seen from latest sfc obs, with no chgs to

fcst ovrngt lows attm. Snfl totals were also updated a little

based on radar ref trends, with amts increased from the prev stm

total a little msly between Caribou and Danforth.

Prev Disc: Surface low pressure will track well southeast of

the Gulf of Maine tonight into Friday, with a trof extending

back across the Gulf of Maine toward the Downeast coast.

However, uncertainty still exists regarding the exact location

and movement of the trof. At the same time, an upper level low

will move south across New England. Convergence along the trof

will help focus an area of snow tonight into Friday. Whether the

heavier snow along the trof remains mostly offshore or reaches

the Downeast coast is still uncertain. Generally expect snow

accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the Downeast coast tonight

through Friday morning. A narrow corridor of locally heavier

accumulations is also possible somewhere along the Downeast

coast dependent on the location, persistence and movement of the

trof which could produce advisory level snow totals. At this

point, the area which seems to have the best potential for

locally greater snows is coastal Hancock county. Have not issued

any advisories at this time due to the uncertainty regarding

snow totals and the expected duration of the event. Snow totals

diminish across interior Downeast areas, with generally 2 to 3

inch accumulations expected. Snow totals keep diminishing

northward across the remainder of the forecast area, tapering to

around an inch or less across northern areas. The trof will

pivot southwest then south later Friday. Snow will diminish

across northern areas Friday morning, then across Downeast areas

through the afternoon. Gusty north/northwest winds are also

expected Friday. Low temperatures tonight will range from around

5 to around 10 north, through the teens interior Downeast with

mid teens to lower 20s along the Downeast coast. High

temperatures Friday will range through the teens north, to the

lower to mid 20s interior Downeast with mid to upper 20s along

the Downeast coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Snow associated with the inverted trof will be offshore by early

Friday evening, Expect partly to mostly cloudy sky conditions

overnight. Lows will range from the single digits below zero across

the colder northern valleys to the single digits above zero

Downeast.

Upper level low pressure continues to move southeast of the Gulf of

Maine Saturday and Saturday night. Meanwhile, high pressure at the

surface will slowly build toward the region through Sunday.

Expect dry conditions both weekend days with partly to mostly

sunny sky conditions. Saturday will be the coldest of the two

weekend days with highs ranging from the low to mid teens north

and around 20 downeast. It will be milder on Sunday with highs

ranging from the lower 20s north and mid 20s downeast. Lows

Saturday night will once again dip below zero across the colder

northern valleys to the single digits above zero downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Sunday night and Monday will continue dry as high pressure remains

across the region while low pressure redevelops across the Mid

Atlantic region. Still a lot of uncertainty with regard to the

eventual impacts this system will have on northern and Downeast

Maine as we head into the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. There

still is a lot of spread with regard to the GFS/EC ensembles. At

this point, looks like snow would begin to overspread Downeast

areas later Monday night and then push north on Tuesday. Just

how far north the snow makes it is still uncertain, as this will

ultimately depend on the eventual track of the low. Have stayed

with the NBM which brings likely pops downeast later Monday

night into Tuesday, with likley pops as far north as Houlton on

Tuesday, and then chance pops across the far north. The snow may

continue into Wednesday as the system moves slowly out to sea.

Drier weather moves back in for Thursday. High temperatures

through the longer term will tend to average above normal for

this time of year.....