Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook For Northern & Eastern Maine - 02/18/2021
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FGUS71 KCAR 182043
ESFCAR
MEC003-009-019-021-025-029-252045-
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
343 PM EST THU FEB 18 2021
..SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN... CENTRAL...AND
DOWNEAST MAINE...
THIS IS THE FOURTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR 2021,
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU, MAINE. THIS
OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND DOWNEAST MAINE FOR THE TWO-
WEEK PERIOD OF FEBRUARY 18TH TO MARCH 4TH, 2021.
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR OPEN WATER FLOODING IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE
JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE RIVERS, WHILE THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION IS BELOW NORMAL.
...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY AVERAGED BETWEEN 1 TO 3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION RANGED FROM 0.30 TO 0.90 INCHES
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH THE BANGOR AREA APPROXIMATELY
0.10 INCHES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.
THERE WERE TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS IN
FEBRUARY. THE FIRST BROUGHT BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES, MAINLY OVER
WASHINGTON COUNTY, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM BROUGHT BETWEEN 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW TO
NORTHERN AREAS ON FEBRUARY 16TH. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS EXPERIENCED
BETWEEN 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET, ALONG WITH AROUND 0.10 INCHES
OF FREEZING RAIN ON THE COAST.
A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO
WEEKS WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE THE DOWNEAST REGION COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM.
THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK IS CALLING
FOR ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...
SNOW DEPTHS RANGED BETWEEN 16 TO 26 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST MAINE, WHILE THE MAINE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS RECORDED 12 TO
20 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH. CHIMNEY POND, LOCATED IN THE BAXTER
STATE PARK REGION, CAME WITH AN INCREDIBLE 35 INCHES OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND. AS OF 8 AM THIS MORNING, THE NWS OFFICE IN CARIBOU HAD
A 18 INCH SNOW DEPTH, WHILE FORT KENT IN THE ST. JOHN VALLEY CAME
IN WITH 26 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. BANGOR INCREASED ITS
SNOW DEPTH TO 9 INCHES.
SNOW DEPTHS CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA, THOUGH EASTERN REGIONS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, OR THE AMOUNT OF WATER CONTAINED IN
THE SNOWPACK, RANGED FROM 3.4 TO JUST OVER 5 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THE NWS IN CARIBOU RECORDED A
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT OF 3.4 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT OF 5.3 INCHES MEASURED NEAR PORTAGE.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE MAINE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO
THE DOWNEAST REGION, INCLUDING THE COAST, RANGED FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PENOBSCOT VALLEY INTO DOWNEAST,
AS SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...
THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX, WHICH MEASURES SOIL
MOISTURE IN THE LONGER TERM, CONTINUED TO SHOW NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS.
A LOOK AT THE GROUNDWATER LEVELS, COURTESY OF THE USGS, SHOWED
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST AREAS.
FORT KENT CONTINUES TO REPORT GROUNDWATER LEVELS TO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXISTING SNOWPACK IS AVAILABLE FOR
RECHARGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...
RIVER FLOWS WERE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE ST. CROIX RIVER BASIN, WHERE FLOWS WERE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL FROM FEBRUARY 8TH THROUGH THIS
MORNING, WHICH ALLOWED RIVER ICE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
AREA. MOST OF THE STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION ARE SNOW
AND ICE COVERED, ESPECIALLY FROM THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER BASIN
NORTHWARD TO THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVER BASINS. ALTHOUGH,
THERE ARE SECTIONS OF OPEN WATER.
NORTHERN MAINE RIVERS WERE PRETTY MUCH ICED OVER WITH SOME OPEN
WATER IN SOME SPOTS WHERE THERE IS GOOD RIVER FLOW, SUCH AS NEAR
ASHLAND AND UP NEAR THE FORT KENT REGION. ICE THICKNESSES RANGED
FROM 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN RIVERS,
WHILE 10 TO 14 INCHES OF ICE EXISTS ACROSS THE AROOSTOOK RIVER.
THE FISH RIVER HAD EXPANDED IN ICE COVERAGE, BUT THERE WAS A GOOD
STRETCH OF OPEN WATER IN THE FORT KENT REGION. ICE THICKNESS WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE 8 TO 12 INCHES.
THE PENOBSCOT RIVER WAS ICED IN AROUND THE BANGOR REGION FOR
APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES, INCLUDING WHERE THE KENDUSKEAG STREAM
JOINS THE PENOBSCOT. OPEN WATER WAS NOTED NORTH TOWARD THE OLD
TOWN AREA, WITH SOME OPEN AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS THE MILLINOCKET
AREA. THE EAST BRANCH OF THE PENOBSCOT RIVER AT GRINDSTONE WAS
ICE COVERED WITH SOME OPEN STRETCHES TO THE SOUTH. ICE THICKNESS
WAS MEASURED BY THE USGS TO BE AROUND 8 INCHES AT GRINDSTONE, AND
ALONG THE STRETCH OF KENDUSKEAG STREAM MEETING UP WITH THE
PENOBSCOT RIVER AT BANGOR. THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER FROM BLANCHARD TO
DOVER-FOXCROFT WAS ICE COVERED WITH SOME OPEN SECTIONS ALONG THE
SIDES, WHILE SOME OPEN WATER WAS NOTED TOWARD THE MEDFORD REGION.
THE USGS MEASURED ICE THICKNESSES OF 7 TO 10 INCHES ON THE
PISCATAQUIS RIVER ALONG THE STRETCH FROM BLANCHARD TO DOVER-FOXCROFT.
THERE ARE SOME ICE JAMS REMAINING IN PLACE. ONE BUNCHED UP JAM
RESIDES ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER FROM JUST EAST OF CARIBOU TO THE
FORT FAIRFIELD BRIDGE. THIS JAM IS APPROXIMATELY 7 MILES IN
LENGTH. THE JAM REMAINS BROKEN UP IN SPOTS ALONG THIS STRETCH. A
SMALL BUNCHED UP JAM REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE TOWN OF CROUSEVILLE
ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER. THERE IS ANOTHER SMALL, BUNCHED UP JAM
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER, JUST SOUTH OF LILLE
TO THE TOWN OF KEEGAN. FINALLY, AN ICE JAM WAS NOTED ON THE
ALLAGASH RIVER NEAR THE BRIDGE WHERE THE ALLAGASH RIVER MEETS THE
ST. JOHN RIVER.
DESPITE THE ICE COVERAGE EXPANDING OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS, ICE
COVERAGE AND THICKNESSES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
...IN CONCLUSION...
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR OPEN WATER FLOODING IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE JAMS
REMAINS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN MAINE RIVER BASINS. THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING ACROSS THE PISCATAQUIS AND
PENOBSCOT RIVER BASINS IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ALONG
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CAN LEAD TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING WITH SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF. ICE BREAKING UP AND JAMMING CAN
ELEVATE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY,
MARCH 4TH.
$$
FARRAR/HEWITT
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