Surprise Tropical Depression Two Forms East Of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina

000

WTNT32 KNHC 141438

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022021

1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA...

...HEADING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...35.0N 73.7W

ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was

located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 73.7 West. The

depression is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and

this general motion is expected through Wednesday with increasing 

forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight 

and could continue to strengthen on Tuesday.  The system should 

begin to weaken by Tuesday night and is expected to dissipate on 

Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Blake

000

WTNT42 KNHC 141442

TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022021

1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

Satellite and radar images show that the low pressure area that NHC 

has been following since yesterday off the coast of North Carolina 

has become better organized, with a small central dense overcast 

over the center and more prominent banding features.  The low also 

has advanced ahead of a nearby diffuse stationary front, with that 

boundary lying northwest of the center.  Considering the small core 

of the low, ample deep convection, satellite pattern, and that the 

low is feeding off of the thunderstorm activity (and not the front) 

-- it is now classified as a tropical depression.  The initial 

intensity is set to 30 kt, which is our best estimate assuming 

strengthening from the 20-25 kt overnight ASCAT and surface 

observations.

The depression is moving northeastward at about 18 kt.  A large 

mid-latitude trough digging across eastern North America should 

cause the cyclone to continue moving generally northeastward, but 

faster, over the next couple of days.  In about 48 hours, the system 

is forecast to dissipate near Newfoundland as it is absorbed by a 

larger extratropical low.  Model guidance is in very good agreement 

on this scenario, and the NHC forecast lies near the track 

consensus.

The depression has about 24 hours over marginally warm waters in

low-to-moderate shear to strengthen before it moves north of the 

Gulf Stream and decays.  Almost all of the intensity guidance shows 

the system becoming a tropical storm tonight, and considering the

healthy initial structure, the official forecast follows that

guidance.  The low should lose tropical characteristics in about 36

hours due to very cold waters and dissipate near Newfoundland in 

about 2 days.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 35.0N  73.7W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  15/0000Z 36.6N  70.9W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  15/1200Z 39.8N  65.3W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  16/0000Z 43.6N  59.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Blake