Tropical Storm Elsa A Long-Range Threat To The Region Update One

000

WTNT35 KNHC 050255

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  19

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021

1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA A LITTLE STRONGER...

...LANDFALL ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.6N 79.2W

ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA

ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban

provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas.

The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the 

Cuban provinces of Granma and Las Tunas, and the Tropical Storm 

Warning has been discontinued for the provinces of Las Tunas, 

Granma, Holquin, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* The Cuban province of Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,

Villa Clara, Mayabeque, and Havana

* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

* The Cuban province of Artemisa

* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef

* Florida Bay

* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Anclote

River

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 

somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 

hours. The hurricane conditions are expected to begin shortly after 

the first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that 

make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to 

protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the

progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be

required tonight or early Monday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was 

located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and radars 

from Pilan and Camaguey, Cuba, near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 

79.2 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 

km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through 

Monday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On 

the forecast track, the center of Elsa will approach south-central 

Cuba late tonight and early Monday.  Elsa is expected to move across 

central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on 

Monday, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then 

forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida 

on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have 

increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some 

additional strengthening is expected before Elsa moves over Cuba, 

followed by some weakening while the center moves over land. Slight

restrengthening is possible after Elsa moves over the southeastern

Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)

from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the

reconnaissance aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and

on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in 

portions of central Cuba tonight and early Monday.  Tropical storm 

conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the Florida 

Keys late Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the 

watch areas in the Cayman Islands tonight, and in the upper Florida 

Keys by Monday night.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in 

the watch area along the west coast of Florida beginning Monday 

night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal

tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore

flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally

dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving

inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following

heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak

surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft

Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft

Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Jamaica, an additional 2 to 4 inches of

rainfall with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches are expected

through tonight. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and

mudslides, some of which could be significant.

Across portions of Cuba tonight into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10

inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This

will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands tonight into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5

inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida

Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4

inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be

possible across Florida and Coastal Georgia Monday through

Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor

river flooding.  Coastal portions of South Carolina are expected to

receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local amounts to 5 inches

Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash

flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern

Florida Monday afternoon and Monday night into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast

of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or

two.  Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida

on Monday and spread northward along the west coast of Florida

Monday night and Tuesday.  Please consult products from your local

weather office for more details.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Stewart

000

WTNT45 KNHC 050258

TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number  19

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021

1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

Similar to this time last night, Elsa has undergone another 

convective bursting pattern, except that tonight this has translated 

into at least some slight strengthening. An Air Force Reserve 

reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone this evening has 

found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt and reliable SFMR 

surface winds of about 55 kt. Although there have been SFMR winds of 

60 kt or more reported northeast and north of the center, those 

values appear to be contaminated by shoaling and/or breaking waves 

owing to the shallow water flowing in and around the offshore Cayo 

Anclitas and Cayo Pingues archipelagos. The estimated center 

pressure of 1004 mb based on dropsonde data also does a higher 

intensity of 60 kt. Therefore, based on the most reliable data, the 

intensity has been increased to 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 310/13 kt.  There remains no 

significant change to the previous few track forecasts and synoptic 

reasonings. Elsa is expected to move northwestward and then 

northward around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical 

ridge during the next 3 days, followed by acceleration toward the 

northeast on days 4 and 5 as the cyclone moves near the southeast 

U.S. coast and then over the northwestern Atlantic. The new NHC 

track forecast is basically just an update and extension of the 

previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the tightly 

packed corrected consensus model HCCA and the simple consensus 

models TVCA and GFEX.

Cuban radar data from Pilan and Camaguey have occasionally revealed 

an eye-like feature in the low -and mid-levels of the cyclone where 

cloud top temperatures have been colder than -80C and also where 

significant lightning activity has been occurring. Given that the 

circulation centers have become better aligned and the upper-level 

outflow pattern is well-established and steadily improving, some 

additional strengthening during the next 12 h is forecast, which 

calls for Elsa to be near hurricane strength before landfall occurs 

along the south-central coast of Cuba tomorrow. Over the eastern 

Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday, some restrengthening is 

forecast after Elsa clears Cuba, but southwesterly vertical wind 

shear is expected to hinder the intensification process.  The 

official intensity forecast remains on the high side of the 

numerical model guidance, and follows a blend of the HCCA intensity 

consensus model, and the LGEM and and Decay-SHIPS 

statistical-dynamical models.

Key Messages:

1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica 

tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides 

will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and 

Cuba tonight into Monday resulting in significant flooding and 

mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida 

Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy 

rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river 

flooding.  Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South 

Carolina may result in isolated flash flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are

expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern

Cuba tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions

of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread

into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday.

3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for

portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical

storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning

as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge,

and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula

Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the

Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 20.6N  79.2W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  05/1200Z 21.9N  80.7W   60 KT  70 MPH

 24H  06/0000Z 23.5N  82.1W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  06/1200Z 25.1N  82.9W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  07/0000Z 27.1N  83.2W   50 KT  60 MPH

 60H  07/1200Z 29.2N  82.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

 72H  08/0000Z 31.5N  81.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 96H  09/0000Z 36.0N  76.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

120H  10/0000Z 41.0N  66.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER

$$

Forecaster Stewart