Tropical Depression Ida Moves Northward

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Tropical Depression Ida Advisory Number  24

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL092021

1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND AREAS OF POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING

FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF

THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...REMNANTS OF IDA WILL ALSO BRING AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERAL

TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...36.2N 84.6W

ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NE OF HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA

ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

Flood and Flash Flood Watches extend across the eastern Tennessee

and Ohio Valleys, southern and central Appalachians, the

northern Mid-Atlantic region, and into southern New York

and southern New England.

A tornado watch is in effect until 3 am EDT Wednesday across

extreme north-central North Carolina into western and central

Virginia.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was

located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 84.6 West. The

depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h)

and this motion is expected to gradually accelerate through 

Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours as Ida

becomes extratropical and moves offshore on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ida will produce the following

rainfall totals:

Portions of the Southeast, including the western Florida panhandle,

eastern and northern Alabama, and northern Georgia: An additional 1

to 3 inches through Wednesday morning.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central and Southern

Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts through

Wednesday morning.

Mid Atlantic to Southern New England: 3 to 8 inches with isolated

higher amounts, Wednesday into Thursday.

Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Middle Tennessee

Valley, Ohio Valley, Central and Southern Appalachians.

Significant and life-threatening flash flooding is possible from the

Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, especially across highly

urbanized metropolitan areas and areas of steep terrain. Widespread

moderate and major river flooding impacts are forecast from northern

West Virginia and western Maryland into southern Pennsylvania and

New Jersey, particularly in the Monongahela, Potomac, Susquehanna,

Delaware, and lower Hudson river basins.

Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is occurring or

forecast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama.

Rivers will remain elevated into next week.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with

Tropical Depression Ida, see the companion storm summary at

WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header of ACUS44 KWBC or at the following

link:

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

TORNADOES: The threat for an isolated tornado will continue

tonight across portions of the Mid Atlantic overnight. On

Wednesday, several tornadoes are probable across portions of the

Mid Atlantic, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Hurley

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 36.2N  84.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

 12H  01/1200Z 37.5N  81.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

 24H  02/0000Z 39.6N  76.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 36H  02/1200Z 42.1N  71.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  03/0000Z 44.7N  65.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

9:55 PM ADT Tuesday 31 August 2021

Special weather statement in effect for:

Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick

Significant rainfall is expected.

Total rainfall: 30 to 60 mm. Locally higher amounts possible.

Locations: southeastern New Brunswick.

Time span: Thursday afternoon into Friday.

Remarks: Moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Ida is expected to merge with a non-tropical weather system over the northeastern U.S. and bring significant rain to the province Thursday and into Friday. Rain will spread across the province during the day and will likely become heavy at times Thursday night. Latest indications show that periods of rain will likely linger over the province well into Friday, especially over eastern sections.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

9:55 PM ADT Tuesday 31 August 2021

Special weather statement in effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.

Significant rainfall is expected.

Total rainfall: 30 to 60 mm. Locally higher amounts possible.

Locations: Prince Edward Island.

Time span: Thursday afternoon into Friday.

Remarks: Moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Ida is expected to merge with a non-tropical weather system over the northeastern U.S. and bring significant rain to the province later Thursday and into Friday. Rain will spread across the province in the afternoon and will likely become heavy at times Thursday night. Latest indications show that periods of rain will likely linger over the province most of Friday, with increasing northerly winds during the day which could gust as high as 70 or 80 km/h.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #PEStorm.

9:54 PM ADT Tuesday 31 August 2021

Special weather statement in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Significant rainfall is expected.

Total rainfall: 30 to 60 mm. Locally higher amounts possible.

Locations: Nova Scotia.

Time span: Thursday into Friday morning.

Remarks: Moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Ida is expected to merge with a non-tropical weather system over the northeastern U.S. and bring significant rain to the province on Thursday and into Friday. Rain will spread across the province during the day and will likely become heavy at times in the evening and overnight. Rain will gradually taper off beginning Friday morning, but showers could linger over northern regions into Friday afternoon.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

906 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will continue to build toward the region tonight

into Wednesday. The remnants of Ida will cross the Gulf of

Maine Thursday, then exit across the Maritimes Friday. High

pressure will build across the region later Saturday. A cold

front will approach Sunday.

&&.....

....SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Low pressure, the remnants of Ida, will move toward the

southern Gulf of Maine Wednesday night. Expect partly cloudy

skies across northern areas Wednesday night, with increasing

clouds along with a chance of rain Downeast. The extra-tropical

remnants of Ida track northeast Thursday through Thursday night

while a closing upper low approaches from the west. Uncertainty

still exists regarding the track of the surface low and the

interaction with the upper low. Rainfall amounts Thursday

through Thursday night will be dependent on the eventual track

of the surface low and development of the upper low. At the

present time, the better chances for heavy rain Thursday

through Thursday night appear to be across Downeast areas or the

Gulf of Maine with lesser totals northward across the remainder

of the region. A sharp gradient of lesser rain totals could

exist across northern portions of the forecast area,

particularly if a more southerly track occurs. The

surface/upper lows should exit across the Maritimes Friday.

Expect rain to taper to showers Friday. However, how rapidly

this occurs is also uncertain dependent on the track and

location of the surface/upper lows. Temperatures will be at

below normal levels Thursday/Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Shower chances should persist Friday night, particularly across

northern areas, dependent on how rapidly the surface/upper lows

exit across the Maritimes. A slower exit could also allow

decreasing shower chances to persist across northern areas into

Saturday, while a more rapid exit would allow high pressure to

build more rapidly. A cold front should approach from the west

later Sunday with a chance of showers in advance of the front.

The front should exit early Monday, with an upper trof then

helping keep the chance of showers across the region Monday,

possibly also into Tuesday. Near normal level temperatures are

expected Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expect through Wednesday. There may

be some SCT020-SCT030 tomorrow afternoon at FVE. BCFG is

possible at PQI tomorrow morning as well before sunrise.

SHORT TERM:

Wednesday night...VFR north. VFR/MVFR Downeast with a chance of rain

late. Light winds.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR north, MVFR/IFR Downeast. However, uncertainty

with rain chances, though better chances Downeast. North/northeast

winds around 10 knots.

Thursday night...MVFR/IFR, local LIFR. However, uncertainty with

rain chances, though better chances Downeast. North winds 10 to

15 knots.

Friday...MVFR/IFR early, then VFR/MVFR. Rain tapering to showers.

North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Friday night through Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers

north. VFR Downeast. Northwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday night...VFR. Light winds.

Sunday...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

South winds 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below SCA through the period.

SHORT TERM: Conditions below small craft advisory levels Wednesday

night. Small craft advisory conditions possible later Thursday

into early Friday. A chance of rain later Wednesday night. Rain

Thursday into Thursday night, tapering to showers Friday.

Patchy fog Thursday into Thursday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...None.

MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Sinko

Short Term...Norcross

Long Term...Norcross

Aviation...Sinko/Norcross

Marine...Sinko/Norcross

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

509 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-011200-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-

Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-

Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

509 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,

Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine,

Interior DownEast Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley

Maine.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Significant to heavy rainfall is possible Thursday into Friday

morning mostly for Downeast and possibly East Central portions of

the region dependent on the eventual track of the remnants of Ida.

Uncertainty still exists regarding the track.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$