Hurricane Larry (Category One) Clobbering Newfoundland

452 

WTNT32 KNHC 110248

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

Hurricane Larry Advisory Number  42

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021

1100 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021

...CENTER OF LARRY TO MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND DURING

THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM

SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THAT AREA TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...46.8N 54.9W

ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 47 MPH...76 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove

* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo

Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12

hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed

to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the

next 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the

progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located

near latitude 46.8 North, longitude 54.9 West. Larry is moving

toward the north-northeast near 47 mph (76 km/h).  A very rapid 

motion toward the north-northeast or northeast is expected through 

Saturday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Larry will 

be moving across southeastern Newfoundland during the next few 

hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast before landfall in 

Newfoundland.  After landfall, Larry is expected to become a strong 

extratropical low by Saturday morning before it merges with 

another low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255

miles (405 km).  A station at Cape St. Mary's, Newfoundland, 

relayed by amateur radio, recently reported sustained winds of    

84 mph (135 km/h) and a wind gust of 97 mph (156 km/h) at an 

unknown elevation.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are now spreading across the hurricane 

warning area in southeastern Newfoundland, and tropical storm 

conditions are also spreading across other portions of the 

hurricane warning area.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to 

begin in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern 

Newfoundland during the next few hours.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce

coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern

Newfoundland.

SURF: Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda,

the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through

Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening

surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your

local weather office.

RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern

Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$

Forecaster Beven

000

WTNT42 KNHC 110248

TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number  42

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021

1100 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021

Satellite imagery and data from Canadian radars indicate that Larry 

is maintaining good central convective banding in the northeastern 

semicircle, and based on this it is still a tropical cyclone at 

this time. The maximum intensity is held at 70 kt based mainly on 

recently-received scattterometer data showing 64-67 kt winds to the 

east and southeast of the center.  Surface observations indicate 

that tropical storm conditions are spreading into southeastern 

Newfoundland, and hurricane condition should move onshore during 

the next few hours as the center makes landfall.

After landfall, Larry is expected to quickly lose its tropical 

cyclone characteristics and become a strong extratropical low over 

the Labrador Sea.  The cyclone is forecast to dissipate after 24 h 

as it merges with a developing mid-latitude low currently to its 

northwest.  

Larry is moving rapidly toward the north-northeast with an initial 

motion of 030/41.  This general motion should continue until Larry 

merges with the other low pressure area.  The new official forecast 

track is little changed from the previous track and is in the 

middle of the tightly clustered guidance models.

Key Messages:

1. Larry will move over portions of southeastern Newfoundland 

during the next several hours as it undergoes transition to a

hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone.  Hurricane conditions, a

dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected in portions

of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect.

2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the

Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and

Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells will cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers

and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the

guidance of lifeguards and local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 46.8N  54.9W   70 KT  80 MPH

 12H  11/1200Z 51.9N  49.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 24H  12/0000Z 56.8N  44.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Beven