Potential Major Winter Storm On The Way?

000

FXUS61 KCAR 241508

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

Issued by National Weather Service Gray ME

1008 AM EST Mon Jan 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will cross the region today. Low pressure will

move east across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. High

pressure will build across the region Thursday. Low pressure

could approach later Friday.....

.....LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

After another very cold start to the day Thursday, the airmass

modifies a bit by Thursday afternoon as upper ridging briefly

moves across and surface high builds in to the area.

The forecast for late week and heading into next weekend gets very

interesting. Models have been advertising potential for a

significant winter storm affecting the region next Saturday and

tonight`s 00z guidance continues to support that thinking. Latest

operational runs of the EC/GFS showing northern and southern

energy phasing heading into Friday night with low pressure

developing along the southeast coast of the U.S. and heading

northeast Friday night and Saturday. Both the EC/GFS showing

intensifying low pressure lifting northeast later Friday night

early Saturday, then heading through the Bay of Fundy and

through the Canadian Maritimes Saturday night through Sunday.

The Canadian model is indicating a more inland track but an

outlier compared to its ensemble mean. NBM yielded likley pops

for Downeast areas Friday night and Saturday. Although this is

later day 5 heading into day 6, there has been enough model

consistency in a precip event past several model runs, and also

in good collaboration with neighboring office, thus will

maintain the NBM likley pops.

This system certainly would have the potential to bring a significant

winter storm to portions of northern and Downeast Maine heading

into next weekend, with the potential for significant snow and

wind. This system is still several days out, but has the

potential to be a high impact event for the forecast area

heading into next weekend. Thus, after coordinating with

surrounding office, will highlight the mention in the Hazardous

Weather Outlook this morning. Stay tuned!.....