Monday, January 24, 2022

Potential Major Winter Storm On The Way?

000
FXUS61 KCAR 241508
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
Issued by National Weather Service Gray ME
1008 AM EST Mon Jan 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cross the region today. Low pressure will
move east across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. High
pressure will build across the region Thursday. Low pressure
could approach later Friday.....

.....LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
After another very cold start to the day Thursday, the airmass
modifies a bit by Thursday afternoon as upper ridging briefly
moves across and surface high builds in to the area.

The forecast for late week and heading into next weekend gets very
interesting. Models have been advertising potential for a
significant winter storm affecting the region next Saturday and
tonight`s 00z guidance continues to support that thinking. Latest
operational runs of the EC/GFS showing northern and southern
energy phasing heading into Friday night with low pressure
developing along the southeast coast of the U.S. and heading
northeast Friday night and Saturday. Both the EC/GFS showing
intensifying low pressure lifting northeast later Friday night
early Saturday, then heading through the Bay of Fundy and
through the Canadian Maritimes Saturday night through Sunday.
The Canadian model is indicating a more inland track but an
outlier compared to its ensemble mean. NBM yielded likley pops
for Downeast areas Friday night and Saturday. Although this is
later day 5 heading into day 6, there has been enough model
consistency in a precip event past several model runs, and also
in good collaboration with neighboring office, thus will
maintain the NBM likley pops.

This system certainly would have the potential to bring a significant
winter storm to portions of northern and Downeast Maine heading
into next weekend, with the potential for significant snow and
wind. This system is still several days out, but has the
potential to be a high impact event for the forecast area
heading into next weekend. Thus, after coordinating with
surrounding office, will highlight the mention in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook this morning. Stay tuned!.....

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