Monday, August 15, 2022

Mid-August Nor'Easter Update One


























000
FXUS61 KCAR 160211
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1011 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will strengthen north of the region on
Tuesday. Low pressure will develop well to our south on Tuesday
and lift north into the Gulf of Maine later Wednesday and
Wednesday night, then into the Maritimes Friday. High pressure
will build back into the area on Saturday.....

....Previous discussion...
Cumulus field has developed acrs the region this afternoon.
Surface high pressure gradually building twd the area fm Canada
this afternoon. Regional radars are showing isolated showers
over northwestern areas developing on a weak sfc boundary as
noted by surface wind shift. More showers are developing along
the sea breeze boundary over Hancock County. Expect these wl
gradually weaken by evening with loss of diurnal htg.

Tonight will feature skies clearing across the north with skies
becoming partly cloudy to mostly cloudy over Downeast at times
tonight as high clouds fm approaching upper low moves across the
area thru 12z Tuesday. Cloud cover will determine fog potential
with another round of locally dense fog possible in deeper river
valleys acrs the north but a little more questionable over
Downeast. Temps wl be slightly warmer than last night, given the
cloud cover and fog potential.

Tuesday likely to start off partly sunny with fog dissipating by
12z. Upr lvl disturbance moves in fm the south during the
afternoon as upr low encompasses most of the nern U.S. Cannot
rule out an isold-scattered shower developing over central sxns
after 18z with elevated instability and steep lapse rates fcst.
Limiting factor for thunder will be dry airmass present thus
expecting just showers at this time. Temps wl be slightly cooler
than Monday given cloud cover over Downeast with northern zones
climbing back twd 80 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The low pressure system near the Mid-Atlantic states will
continue to intensify and move north Tuesday night. QPF models
indicate the possibility of some isolated diurnal showers in
the early night as moisture is pushed into the region.
Increasing cloud cover will keep temps in the low 60s for the
night with increasing NE breeze. By Wednesday, the system is
expected to organize more, but still be a fairly shallow low
with pressure near 1010mb. The Euro and Canadian show a much
faster track than GFS with the rain reaching the region by
Wednesday morning. Decided to go with the Euro and Canadian
since the ensembles seem to agree with this track.

By Wednesday night, the system will continue to move N. WPC has
sided with the NBM with a slight increase in QPF for this time
period. Models are in better agreement with the track of the
system during this time. Euro is slightly slower that GFS and
Canadian, but catches up towards Thursday morning. 925mb model
temps show a cold airmass wrapping into the occlusion by
Thursday, allowing temps to cool to near normal temps for the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The large low pressure system should start to exit the region
Thursday night into Friday. Cool temps and clearing skies,
especially along the coast, could cause some areas of fog,
though low confidence kept it out of the forecast for now. High
pressure should settle into the region through Sunday making for
sunny skies and warm temps. By Sunday night, the next system
should move in producing rain into early next week, though the
models are very inconsistent with the extent of the rain.....



Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Caribou ME
340 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-161945-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-
Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-
340 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,
Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine,
Interior DownEast Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley
Maine.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A coastal storm is expected to move towards the region by Tuesday
night and exit by Thursday night. Local heavy rainfall is possible
with this system. Rainfall amounts of to 2 inches is possible through
the end of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home