Mid-August Nor'Easter Update One

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FXUS61 KCAR 160211

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1011 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Weak high pressure will strengthen north of the region on

Tuesday. Low pressure will develop well to our south on Tuesday

and lift north into the Gulf of Maine later Wednesday and

Wednesday night, then into the Maritimes Friday. High pressure

will build back into the area on Saturday.....

....Previous discussion...

Cumulus field has developed acrs the region this afternoon.

Surface high pressure gradually building twd the area fm Canada

this afternoon. Regional radars are showing isolated showers

over northwestern areas developing on a weak sfc boundary as

noted by surface wind shift. More showers are developing along

the sea breeze boundary over Hancock County. Expect these wl

gradually weaken by evening with loss of diurnal htg.

Tonight will feature skies clearing across the north with skies

becoming partly cloudy to mostly cloudy over Downeast at times

tonight as high clouds fm approaching upper low moves across the

area thru 12z Tuesday. Cloud cover will determine fog potential

with another round of locally dense fog possible in deeper river

valleys acrs the north but a little more questionable over

Downeast. Temps wl be slightly warmer than last night, given the

cloud cover and fog potential.

Tuesday likely to start off partly sunny with fog dissipating by

12z. Upr lvl disturbance moves in fm the south during the

afternoon as upr low encompasses most of the nern U.S. Cannot

rule out an isold-scattered shower developing over central sxns

after 18z with elevated instability and steep lapse rates fcst.

Limiting factor for thunder will be dry airmass present thus

expecting just showers at this time. Temps wl be slightly cooler

than Monday given cloud cover over Downeast with northern zones

climbing back twd 80 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The low pressure system near the Mid-Atlantic states will

continue to intensify and move north Tuesday night. QPF models

indicate the possibility of some isolated diurnal showers in

the early night as moisture is pushed into the region.

Increasing cloud cover will keep temps in the low 60s for the

night with increasing NE breeze. By Wednesday, the system is

expected to organize more, but still be a fairly shallow low

with pressure near 1010mb. The Euro and Canadian show a much

faster track than GFS with the rain reaching the region by

Wednesday morning. Decided to go with the Euro and Canadian

since the ensembles seem to agree with this track.

By Wednesday night, the system will continue to move N. WPC has

sided with the NBM with a slight increase in QPF for this time

period. Models are in better agreement with the track of the

system during this time. Euro is slightly slower that GFS and

Canadian, but catches up towards Thursday morning. 925mb model

temps show a cold airmass wrapping into the occlusion by

Thursday, allowing temps to cool to near normal temps for the

day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

The large low pressure system should start to exit the region

Thursday night into Friday. Cool temps and clearing skies,

especially along the coast, could cause some areas of fog,

though low confidence kept it out of the forecast for now. High

pressure should settle into the region through Sunday making for

sunny skies and warm temps. By Sunday night, the next system

should move in producing rain into early next week, though the

models are very inconsistent with the extent of the rain.....

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

340 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-161945-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-

Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-

Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

340 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,

Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine,

Interior DownEast Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley

Maine.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A coastal storm is expected to move towards the region by Tuesday

night and exit by Thursday night. Local heavy rainfall is possible

with this system. Rainfall amounts of to 2 inches is possible through

the end of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$