Hurricane Fiona (Category 2) A Long-range Threat To The Region

000

FXUS61 KCAR 200132

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

932 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will approach from the west overnight, cross the

Gulf of Maine Tuesday, then exit across the Maritimes Wednesday.

A cold front will cross the region Thursday. Low pressure will

intensify across the Maritimes Friday into Saturday.....

...SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Low pressure will exit to the east Tuesday night, allowing for

rain showers to taper off across the region. Light northerly

winds and clearing skies overnight will allow for temperatures

to drop to around average for this time of year, with lows

across the north falling into the low to mid 40s, and near the

coast temperatures remaining around 50 through the night. Some

colder valleys in the North Woods may see temperatures into the

30s early Wednesday morning.

Dry conditions will persist on Wednesday, with partly cloudy

skies and high temperatures in the 60s. The narrow ridge of high

pressure responsible for this weather will not last long,

however, as the next system approaches from the west Wednesday

night.

A strong cold front will cross the region on Thursday, bringing

widespread rain to the area. This front may tap into moisture

surrounding Hurricane Fiona, which would fuel stratiform rain

into the Downeast region. Should the ridge of high pressure

ahead of this front be strong enough, however, enough of a pause

will exist to limit this source of moisture. The front will be

progressive in nature and clear off the coast Thursday evening.....

409 

WTNT32 KNHC 200249

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number  23

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022

1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

...CORE OF FIONA EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE EASTERNMOST TURKS AND 

CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL

OCCURRING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.6N 70.3W

ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long

Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life

and property should be nearing completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fiona was located

near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 70.3 West. Fiona is moving

toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general 

motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a 

turn toward the north Tuesday night or Wednesday. On the forecast 

track, the center of Fiona will pass near easternmost Turks and 

Caicos late tonight or early Tuesday. 

Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 

indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 

mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is 

expected during the next couple of days, and Fiona is forecast to 

become a major hurricane later tonight or on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles

(240 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance 

aircraft data is 971 mb (28.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Hurricane Fiona can be found in the Tropical

Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header

WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos

beginning later tonight or early Tuesday.  Tropical storm and

hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area

in the Dominican Republic tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the

southeastern Bahamas by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:

British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Additional 2 to 4 inches. Storm

Total up to 10 inches on St. Croix.

Southern Puerto Rico: Additional 3 to 6 inches with local maximum of

8 inches. Storm Total 12 to 20 inches with local maximum of over 30

inches.

Northern Puerto Rico: Additional 1 to 3 inches with local maximum of

5 inches. Storm Total 4 to 12 inches with local maximum of 20

inches.

Northern and Eastern Dominican Republic: Additional 4 to 8 inches

with local maximum of 10 inches. Storm Total up to 20 inches in the

eastern section.

Rest of Dominican Republic and Eastern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches.

Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches.

These rains will continue to produce life-threatening and

catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across

Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely for

eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 5 to 8 feet above

normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore

winds in the Turks and Caicos tonight into Tuesday.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above

normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore

winds in the Dominican Republic.

Localized coastal flooding is possible for the Southeastern Bahamas

in areas of onshore winds tonight into Tuesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Virgin Islands,

Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos

Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.  These swells will continue

to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward the

central and northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the United

States through midweek.  The swells could cause life-threatening

surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your

local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Brown

000

WTNT42 KNHC 200253

TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number  23

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022

1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

The satellite presentation of the hurricane has improved 

significantly this evening.  The eye has warmed and become more 

distinct and the surrounding ring of deep convection has cooled and 

is more symmetric.  More recently, the eye has become smaller in 

size and this has also been observed by both NOAA and Air Force 

Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that have been sampling the storm 

this evening. The aircraft have reported that the eye has shrunk to 

around 10 n mi in diameter.  The NOAA plane has measured a peak 

flight level wind of 104 kt at around 8000 ft, while the Air Force 

aircraft has reported a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 93 kt.  

Peak SFMR winds of 94-96 kt have also been found, and these data 

support increasing the initial intensity to 95 kt. 

The hurricane's outflow is somewhat restricted over the western

portion of the circulation owing to some moderate southwesterly

shear of the storm.  Although this shear is not forecast to abate

much, the intensity guidance indicates that warm water and a moist

atmosphere should allow for continued intensification during the

next 24 to 48 hours.  Given the recent improvement in structure,

the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for a slightly faster rate

of strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and it is at the

upper end of the intensity guidance.  The official forecast shows

Fiona becoming a major hurricane overnight, and brings the

hurricane to category 4 status in a day or so.  Eyewall replacement

cycles are likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity in the

24-72 h time period.  By day 4, the hurricane is forecast to

interact with a strong mid-tropospheric trough, which will start

the system's extratropical transition.  The process is forecast to 

be complete by the end of the period, and Fiona is expected to 

remain a powerful extratropical cyclone through day 5. 

The initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt. There track forecast 

philosophy again remains the same as the previous few forecast 

cycles. The hurricane should gradually turn north while moving 

around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. After 72 hours,  

Fiona is forecast to turn north-northeastward and accelerate as a 

strong mid-level trough nears the northeastern United States. The 

track guidance remains tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is 

similar to the previous advisory, near the middle of the guidance 

envelope. 

Key Messages:

1.  Heavy rains from Fiona will continue across parts of Puerto Rico 

and across northern and eastern Dominican Republic through tonight. 

These rainfall amounts will continue to produce life-threatening 

and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides 

across Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is 

likely for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected over the Turks and Caicos, with

tropical storm conditions over the southeastern Bahamas, beginning

late tonight or early Tuesday.

3.  Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 20.6N  70.3W   95 KT 110 MPH

 12H  20/1200Z 21.8N  71.0W  110 KT 125 MPH

 24H  21/0000Z 23.3N  71.4W  115 KT 130 MPH

 36H  21/1200Z 24.6N  71.4W  120 KT 140 MPH

 48H  22/0000Z 26.3N  71.0W  120 KT 140 MPH

 60H  22/1200Z 28.5N  69.9W  120 KT 140 MPH

 72H  23/0000Z 31.1N  68.0W  115 KT 130 MPH

 96H  24/0000Z 39.8N  60.7W  105 KT 120 MPH

120H  25/0000Z 49.7N  58.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

Forecaster Brown