Tropical Storm Nicole Is Heading Our Way

000

FXUS61 KCAR 090445

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1145 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will crest over the area Wednesday, then slide

south of the region Thursday into Friday. Low pressure will

approach from the south Friday night and cross the area

Saturday, and pull away from the region Sunday.....

......LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Longer range models are in relatively good agreement with the

track of the remnant low pres of Nicole tracking from the Cntrl

Aplchns to Nrn ME later Fri Ngt into Sat. Rn from this system

will spread SW to NE across the FA by late Fri Ngt and cont into

Sat, with some models showing two pulses of heavier rnfl, one

in the late ngt/erly morn hrs Fri Ngt/Sat Morn and perhaps

another on the late morn/erly aftn hrs Sat. Given uncertainty

whether these two pulses of heavier rnfl will overlap, its still

a little to erly to discuss flood watches attm, but we will be

watching for this possibility as we get closer to the event. Low

temps Fri Ngt and highs on Sat will also be challenging with

most models indicating cooler air trying to wedge back into NW

and far NE ME by Sat morn, implying potentially large

differences between the far N and Cntrl/Downeast areas. Areas

more squarely in the warm sector will likely have at least mdt

to possibly strong SSE sfc winds.

Rn will taper to sct shwrs from SW to NE across the FA Sat

Aftn/Sat eve and then end ovr the area late Sat Ngt with

lessening WSW wind speeds with the passage of a cold/occluded

front. Sun attm looks to be ptly cldy and cooler as weak sfc hi

pres from the W settles ovr the FA.

Sun Ngt til Mon Morn looks uncertain attm, with models split

between cont`d fair conditions and the possibility of a second

more coastal sfc low from off the Mid Atlc coast affecting the

FA as it moves toward the Can Maritimes. With colder air in

place, any precip beginning as rn would transition to sn by late

Sun Ngt and Mon Morn, before tapering off and ending Mon Aftn. A

few ensbls of different opnl models ovr the last few runs even

have a sig precip event, enough for wntr wx hdlns if they came

true. But for now, we indicate only a chc of rn/rn shwrs chg to

sn/sn shwrs for msly Ern ptns of the FA durg this tm, and will

wait for more definitive trends. Following this system, Mon Ngt

and Tue looks to fair with seasonable temps at this tm.....

000

WTNT32 KNHC 090256

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022

1000 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...NICOLE VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHILE HEADED FOR THE 

NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...27.1N 74.8W

ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND

ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended west along the Florida

panhandle from the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the

northwestern Bahamas

* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern

Bahamas

* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida

* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida

* Lake Okeechobee

* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida

* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

* Anclote River Florida to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida

* North of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River Florida

* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South

Carolina.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of

tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside

preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in

the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please

see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,

available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.

Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions

to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern

coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

Additional watches or warnings may be required on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was

located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 74.8 West.  Nicole is

moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A

west-southwestward to westward motion is expected through early 

Wednesday.  A west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin later 

on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on 

Thursday and Thursday night.  On the forecast track, the center of 

Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas overnight, move near 

or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of 

Florida within the hurricane warning area Wednesday night or early 

Thursday.  Nicole's center is then expected to move across central 

and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday 

night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 

with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is expected during the next 

day or so, and Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane later 

tonight and remain a hurricane when it reaches the east coast of 

Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km)

from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA and Air Force 

Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,

and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas

within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm

conditions beginning across all of the northwestern Bahamas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area

along the east coast of Florida Wednesday night or Thursday morning

with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early

Wednesday within the tropical storm and hurricane warning areas.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area

on Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area along the west coast of Florida by

Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the

St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft

* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South

Carolina...2 to 4 ft

* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown

Florida...2 to 4 ft

* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft

* Anclote River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft

* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1

to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above

normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern

Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be

accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding

depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and

can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to

your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather

Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions

of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8

inches.

Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western

Mid Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:

2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.

Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible renewed

river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula on

Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread

north farther up the Eastern Seaboard late Thursday into Friday.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible from eastern Florida

into parts of eastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina beginning

late Wednesday night and continuing through Friday.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern

Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern

United States coast during the next several days.  These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.

Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$

Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

000

WTNT42 KNHC 090257

TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022

1000 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Nicole's satellite appearance has changed little since this

afternoon.  Deep convection is not very strong near the center of

the cyclone at this time, and there appears to be some dry air

intrusions into the circulation as evidenced by water vapor 

imagery.  Nonetheless, wind and central pressure observations from 

NOAA and Air Force Hurricane aircraft indicate that the system is 

very close to hurricane strength and the current advisory intensity 

is set to 60 kt.

Center fixes indicate that the cyclone is moving

west-southwestward, or about 250/9 kt  The track forecast

philosophy is basically the same as in the previous advisory

package.  Nicole should move west-southwestward to westward, on the

south side of an eastward-moving high pressure area, for the next 24

hours.  Thereafter, the system should turn northwestward and then

northward along the western side of the high.  In 3-5 days, Nicole

is likely to accelerate northeastward over the eastern United

States, to the east of a large mid-level trough.  The track model

guidance has not changed significantly, nor has the official

forecast.  This is near the southern edge of the guidance suite for

the next 1-2 days, and roughly in the middle of the guidance

thereafter.

Nicole will be moving over fairly warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees

Celsius during the next day or so.  However, the SHIPS guidance

indicates that the vertical shear will be 25 kt or higher, with

low-to mid-tropospheric humidities on the order of 50 percent,

during the next 24 hours.  Nicole is likely to become a hurricane

soon but, given the marginal dynamic and thermodynamic environment, 

significant strengthening seems unlikely.  The official intensity 

forecast is near or above the available model guidance, and closely 

follows the decay-SHIPS model after landfall.  Weakening is expected 

after Nicole moves inland over Florida and Georgia and while it

accelerates northeastward over the southeastern United States.  The

cyclone should complete extratropical transition by 72 hours and

merge with another extratropical low near Atlantic Canada in 120

hours.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in

portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, where a Hurricane

Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast

of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday or

Wednesday night, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.  Tropical

storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning

areas in Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast

of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge

Warning is in effect.  The storm surge will be accompanied by large

and damaging waves.  Residents in the warning area should listen to

advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to

be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the

center, outside of the forecast cone.  These hazards are likely to

affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast

United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday across

the Florida Peninsula.  Flash and urban flooding will be likely

across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with possible renewed

river rises on the St. Johns River.  On Friday and Saturday, flash,

urban and small stream flooding will be possible in the Southeast

through the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 27.1N  74.8W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  09/1200Z 26.9N  76.3W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  10/0000Z 26.9N  78.8W   65 KT  75 MPH

 36H  10/1200Z 27.9N  81.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

 48H  11/0000Z 29.7N  83.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 60H  11/1200Z 32.8N  83.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 72H  12/0000Z 37.3N  80.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  13/0000Z 47.5N  64.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Pasch

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

938 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-100245-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-

Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-

Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

938 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,

Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine,

Interior DownEast Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley

Maine.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heavy rain is possible late Friday night into Saturday morning which

could result in some minor flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

2:20 PM AST Tuesday 08 November 2022

Tropical cyclone information statement for:

New Brunswick

Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

Québec - south:

Îles-de-la-Madeleine

The next information statement will be issued by 2:00 p.m. AST Wednesday.

For Tropical Storm Nicole.

Tropical Storm Nicole currently north of the Bahamas will head toward Florida and possibly landfall as a category-one hurricane early Thursday. Nicole will then turn northward travelling over land (Georgia, The Carolinas) while merging with a cold front and becoming post tropical. The combined weather system is expected to track through New England early Saturday and into the Maritimes Saturday evening.

Since the storm is expected to transition to 'post-tropical' well to our south, it will essentially be an autumn type storm while impacting Eastern Canada. Heavy rain will likely spread well north of the low's track into southern Quebec and perhaps even eastern Lake Ontario. Rain and wind is likely over the Maritime provinces with very mild, tropical temperatures and gusty winds south of the track and cold northeasterly winds north of it. Parts of central and eastern Quebec and eventually Newfoundlland could even see some snow, so this will clearly be a non-tropical storm and this bulletin is in effect for the 'tropical side' of the system.

The CHC will track this for a few days and we will issue a bulletin like this again tomorrow and likely one Thursday.

Forecaster: FOGARTY

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.