Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook For Northern And Eastern Maine - 01/18/2024

000

FGUS71 KCAR 181644

ESFCAR

MEC003-009-019-021-025-029-251645-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

1144 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2024

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL

AND DOWNEAST MAINE...

This is the second Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook for

2024, issued by the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine.

This outlook is for Northern, Central, and Downeast Maine for the

two week period of January 18th through February 1st, 2024.

The potential for ice jam flooding is Normal across all basins

with ice increasing on the rivers. The potential for open water

flooding is normal across all basins with above normal

streamflows.

...NORTHERN BASINS...

SNOW DEPTH: Below Normal. 10-20 inches with isolated higher amounts

WATER EQUIVALENT: Slightly Below Normal. Generally 1.5-3.5 inches

STREAM FLOWS: Slightly Above Normal.

RIVER ICE: Significant jumbled ice combined with sheet ice.

Significant frazil activity will continue to increase the ice

thickness and deposits over the next week or two. Rivers are not

100% covered which is unusual. Ice thickness remains unstable and

thin noted by the lack of wildlife using the ice.

...CENTRAL HIGHLAND BASINS...

SNOW DEPTH: Below Normal. 4-12 inches.

WATER EQUIVALENT: Slightly Below Normal. Generally 1.0-3.0 inches.

STREAM FLOWS: Above to Much Above Normal.

RIVER ICE: Significant jumbled ice combined with sheet ice.

Significant frazil activity will continue to increase the ice

thickness and deposits over the next week or two.

...DOWNEAST BASINS...

SNOW DEPTH: Below Normal. 2-7 inches.

WATER EQUIVALENT: Below Normal. Generally 0.5-1.2 inches.

STREAM FLOWS: Above Normal.

RIVER ICE: Mixed conditions with a lot of open water with frazil

ice thanks to increased turbulence due to high flows.

For the 2024 season the ESF will be in graphical format on our

website www.weather.gov/car/springfloodoutlook with more details.

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE FROM NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...

El Nino conditions are likely to continue right into early Spring

2024 so we can expect more moisture laden southern stream systems to

come across the southern United States with the potential to move up

the east coast of the United States...possibly affecting Maine.

The one difference we have seen in early January is a flip in the

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index from strongly positive to

strongly negative. With a negative NAO index...upper-level

blocking downstream of New England in the vicinity of Greenland

helps to force cold air south and promote more wintry

precipitation. We have indeed seen this with the last few systems

have produced snow and/or ice...building the snowpack.

Medium range climate guidance is in strong agreement that the NAO

index will be flipping back to positive as we head into the end

of January 2024. This may promote a retreat of the coldest air

into Canada and with the forecast of an increasingly positive

Pacific North America (PNA) index developing in late January

which favors east coast troughing...we could see a return to the

pattern we saw in December 2023 which would be warmer and perhaps

wetter than normal.

The official 8 to 14 day outlook from NOAA`s Climate Prediction

Center for 24 to 30 January 2024 is in strong agreement with the

above discussion as it calls for temperatures to likely be above

normal across all Maine with precipitation also leaning above

normal.

$$

Sinko