Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook For Northern And Eastern Maine - 02/01/2024

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

621 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2024

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL

AND DOWNEAST MAINE...

This is the third Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook for 2024,

issued by the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine. This

outlook is for Northern, Central, and Downeast Maine for the two

week period of February 1st through February 15th, 2024.

The potential for ice jam flooding is Normal across all basins

with ice growth continuing on the rivers. The potential for open

water flooding is Below Normal across all basins with above

normal streamflows.

...NORTHERN BASINS...

SNOW DEPTH: Below Normal. 10-16 inches with isolated higher

amounts

WATER EQUIVALENT: Below Normal. Generally 3-5 inches with isolated

higher amounts

STREAM FLOWS: Near Normal.

RIVER ICE: St. John and Aroostook River`s are 85-95% frozen.

Other smaller rivers are 70-95% frozen. Ice varies between snow

covered frazil, significant jumbled surface ice to sheet ice. Ice

is laminar underneath. Several small leads and some bank rot.

Estimated ice thickness 3-9 inches. Noted by snowmobile, ice

fishing and wildlife activity.

...CENTRAL HIGHLAND BASINS...

SNOW DEPTH: Below Normal. 5-10 inches.

WATER EQUIVALENT: Below Normal. Generally 1-3 inches.

STREAM FLOWS: Normal to Slightly Above Normal.

RIVER ICE: Northern stretches of the Penobscot and Piscataquis

rivers are 80-90% ice covered. Central to Southern stretches are

40-55% covered. Many openings due to tributaries and dam

discharges. Frazil ice, jumbled ice and some sheet ice are noted.

Ice is laminar underneath. Estimated thickness less than 1 inch to

as much as 6 inches. Minimal wildlife and human activity on the

ice.

...DOWNEAST BASINS...

SNOW DEPTH: Below Normal. 1-6 inches.

WATER EQUIVALENT: Below Normal. Generally 0.5-1.5 inches.

STREAM FLOWS: Normal to Above Normal.

RIVER ICE: Above dams the rivers are generally 100% ice covered in

mainly sheet ice or jumbled frazil. Overall ice cover is 60-80%.

Estimated ice thickness less than 1 inch to as much as 7 inches.

Minimal wildlife and human activity on the ice.

For the 2024 season the Winter/Spring Flood Outlook (ESF) will be

in graphical format on our website

www.weather.gov/car/springfloodoutlook

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE FROM NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...

A strong El Nino continues. The El Nino is forecast to remain and

then transition to ENSO-Neutral conditions during April-June

2024. The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) observed along the Nino 3.4

region was +1.8C. This is a slight decrease from the +1.9C value

during October-December 2023. Above normal sea surface

temperature (SST) anomalies were decreasing more notably across

the east central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The jet stream pattern is forecast to change some according to the

latest medium range and ensemble guidance. The Pacific North

American (PNA) is forecast to remain slightly positive to near

neutral...and the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic

Oscillation (AO) are forecast to transition from positive to near

neutral. A transition to near neutral NAO/AO with a slightly

positive PNA would favor the northern branch of the jet remaining

somewhat more dominant with increased chances for some blocking but

with a limited extent of cross polar flow. This setup also favors

deeper moisture generally remaining more suppressed to the south of

Maine. There is the chance a low system with some deeper moisture

could still approach sometime during week two while the El Nino

remains strong but any details remain uncertain at this time.

The official 6 to 14 day outlook from NOAA`s Climate Prediction

Center for 5-13 February 2024 is in general agreement as it calls

for forecast temperatures leaning above normal short term then

transitioning to likely above normal longer term. Precipitation is

forecast to be leaning or likely below normal near term then

potentially below normal in longer term.

$$

Sinko