Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook For Northern And Eastern Maine - 02/29/2024

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

1207 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL

AND DOWNEAST MAINE...

This is the fifth Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook for 2024,

issued by the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine. This

outlook is for Northern, Central, and Downeast Maine for the two

week period of February 29th through March 14th, 2024.

The potential for ice jam flooding is Normal across Northern Maine

and the Central Highlands river basins. Ice jam flooding for

Downeast Maine is Below Normal. The potential for open water

flooding in all of Eastern & Northern Maine is Below Normal.

...NORTHERN BASINS...

SNOW DEPTH: Very Below Normal. Trace to 4" snow depth East with

3-9" in the North Woods west of Route 11.

WATER EQUIVALENT: Very Below Normal. Generally a Trace to 2" with

the most in the North Woods.

STREAM FLOWS: Normal

RIVER ICE: St. John, Allagash, Aroostook Rivers are 80% frozen.

Other smaller rivers are 65% frozen. Ice thickness is a few inches

to near 15-20" above the Dickey Bridge on the St. John. Aroostook

River ice thickness is generally 10-15" but several locations are

less. All rivers have many open leads, bank rot & surface ice

rot.

...CENTRAL HIGHLAND BASINS...

SNOW DEPTH: Very Below Normal. Trace to 1" in eastern areas,

3-10" remains in the Baxter Region, North Woods and Moosehead

Region. 19" reported at Chimney Pond (~2930ft elevation).

WATER EQUIVALENT: Trace up to 4". Well Below Normal.

STREAM FLOWS: Normal.

RIVER ICE: Northern stretches of the Penobscot River is 75% ice

covered. 90-95% of the Mattawamkeag is frozen. Central to Southern

stretches of the Penobscot are 35-45% covered. Ice is being held

up and breaking up above dams. Ice has broken up in some areas

thanks to rising natural flows from recent melt.

...DOWNEAST BASINS...

SNOW DEPTH: Well Below Normal. 0-0.5 inch.

WATER EQUIVALENT: Well Below Normal. Zero-Trace

STREAM FLOWS: Normal

RIVER ICE: Above dams the rivers are generally 65% covered in

mainly sheet or jumbled frazil ice. Many areas of open water with

recent warm weather.

...ICE THICKNESS...

Ice thickness is extremely variable this year with recent warm

spells posing a serious risk to life. Do not venture onto the ice

unless you know the exact thickness. For more information on ice

safety visit the Maine Warden Service website

www.maine.gov/ifw/fishing- boating/fishing/ice-safety-tips.html

For the 2024 season the Winter/Spring Flood Outlook (ESF) will be

in graphical format on our website

www.weather.gov/car/springfloodoutlook

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE FROM NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...

We are currently under a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

Index and negative Pacific North America (PNA) pattern. With a

positive NAO pattern...we typically see Arctic air intrusions

short lived as the lack of upper-level blocking downstream in the

North Atlantic allows cold air to quickly translate east. This is

exactly what we expect to happen over the next few days.

And...with a negative PNA pattern...southeastern United States

upper level ridging typically allows for a storm track near or

west of New England which keeps the region mostly on the warm side

of systems. Again...this is textbook to what we are seeing today

with a large Low passing through southeast Canada with warm

southerly flow ahead of it.

There are signs that both climate indices will trend back towards

neutral as we move through the first 10 days of March but there are

no signs right now of any extended cold. In fact...NOAA`s

official 8 to 14 day outlook for 6 to 12 March 2024 calls for

temperatures to very likely be above normal across all of the

northeastern United States. Precipitation for the same time period

is leaning above normal as well. If this forecast holds true...we

may continue to eradicate the already depleted snowpack and rot

the ice in place on area rivers and streams.

$$

Sinko