Winter Solstice Nor'easter

408

FXUS61 KCAR 192337

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

637 PM EST Thu Dec 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will crest north of the area tonight. Low pressure

will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Friday and intensify

as it tracks south of Nova Scotia Friday night and into the

Eastern Maritimes on Saturday. High pressure will build in from

the west Sunday into Monday. A clipper system will cross the

area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/.......

......Previous Discussion:

Scattered snow showers have developed along and Northwest to

southeast line from the Katahdin region into Eastern Aroostook

and Northern Washington Counties. Webcams show minor

accumulation where these snow showers are crossing Interstate 95

around Island Falls. These snow showers will diminish this

evening as instability decreases with the loss of daytime

heating. Winds will diminish as well as high pressure builds in.

This will allow for some radiational cooling. However, clouds

are forecast to build in later tonight ahead of the next system.

Thus, cooling potential will be limited, with the best

potential in the North Woods. Lows tonight will be near or below

zero in the North Woods, with mainly teens above zero

elsewhere.

Friday will feature an upper trough moving eastward from the

Ohio Valley. This trough will help spawn a low pressure system

off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Not expecting precipitation before

sunset Friday as the system will be too far away. It will be a

colder day on Friday. Highs will likely not get out of the teens

in the Far North, with 20s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Friday night into Saturday is a little bit of a tricky forecast

with the latest trends in operational models for some of the

CWA.

Friday night a 500mb shortwave will be rounding the base of

the long wave trof over the east and tilting negatively. At the

same time the jet stream increases off the Mid-Atlantic and low

pressure deepens with the upper level divergence. Expecting the

low to stay well east of Georges Bank and the Gulf of Maine.

However, a secondary upper level shortwave dives more S-SE into

the main trof and will pull the low slightly closer to Maine.

This will likely result in a band of light snow on the backside

of the low to push back from New Brunswick into Eastern Maine

along the border. This could produce 1-2 inches of fluffy snow

with perhaps far Eastern Washington county seeing 2-4 inches

mainly from Machias to Eastport to Calais. Otherwise, just snow

showers across the CWA with the upper level trof in the area.

Cold air in place will result in high ratios of 15-20:1 snowfall

so it will be very fluffy. Now, how much we get is highly

uncertain given the track and slight wiggles could result in

more or less. Ensembles for the most part keep any snowfall

confined well east of I-95 and closer to the New Brunswick

border. As the low deepens north winds will increase 10-20mph

with gusts potentially up to 30mph and might result in some

blowing snow Saturday. Highs on Saturday will top out in the 20s

for most with teens in the North Woods. Any steady snow tapers

to snow showers in the afternoon.

Sunday will feature increasing sunshine with colder air working

back in behind the low. NW winds will be gusty with gusts

15-25mph but gradually weakening through the day as the pressure

gradient weakens. Temperatures in the single digits Sunday AM

with breezy winds may result in Wind Chills 5 to 15 degrees

below zero. Sunday`s highs will be in the teens for most with

around 20F at the shore. Wind Chills in the single digits below

zero across the north and single digits above zero across the

south......

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

325 PM EST Thu Dec 19 2024

MEZ002-006-016-017-029-030-032-202030-

Northeast Aroostook-Southeast Aroostook-Interior Hancock-

Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-

Northern Washington-

325 PM EST Thu Dec 19 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Coastal DownEast Maine, Far

Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine and Interior DownEast Maine.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A large ocean storm system will track northeast near the Gulf of

Maine into Nova Scotia on Saturday. Although the track is uncertain

there is a possibility of light snow across far Eastern Maine and

along the Downeast coast. Increasing confidence in a light coating

which may impact travel and result in some blowing snow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

10:31 PM AST Thursday 19 December 2024

Special Weather Statement in effect for:

Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County

Significant snowfall likely Friday night.

Locations: Cape Breton.

Total snowfall: 15 to 25 cm possible.

Similar storms in the past have caused:

- hazardous driving conditions

- cancellation of scheduled activities 

Remarks: An area of low pressure is expected to travel up the eastern seaboard  and track south of Nova Scotia on Saturday. Snow will develop over Cape Breton after midnight Friday night and then change to rain Saturday morning.  Snowfall warnings will likely be issued for some areas Friday morning.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

10:23 PM AST Thursday 19 December 2024

Special Weather Statement in effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.

Significant snowfall and strong winds Friday night into Saturday.

Locations: Prince Edward island

Total snowfall: 15 to 25 cm.

Maximum wind gusts: northeasterly 70 km/h

Time span: Friday night into Saturday.

Similar storms in the past have caused:

- hazardous driving conditions

- cancellation of scheduled activities 

Remarks: An area of low pressure is expected to travel up the eastern seaboard  and track south of Nova Scotia on Saturday bringing snow to the island Friday night into Saturday.  Snowfall warnings will likely be issued for some areas on Friday.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #PEStorm.

10:22 PM AST Thursday 19 December 2024

Special Weather Statement in effect for:

Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick

Significant snowfall likely Friday night into Saturday.

Locations: southeastern New Brunswick.

Total snowfall: 15 cm or possibly more.

Time span: late Friday night into Saturday.

Similar storms in the past have caused:

- hazardous driving conditions

- cancellation of scheduled activities 

Remarks: An area of low pressure is expected to travel up the eastern seaboard  and track south of Nova Scotia on Saturday, bringing snow to the province late Friday night into Saturday.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

10:20 PM AST Thursday 19 December 2024

Snowfall Warning in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Total snowfall: 15 to 30 cm.

Locations: Mainland Nova Scotia.

Time span: Friday night and persisting into Saturday afternoon.

Remarks: the snow will change to ice pellets along the Eastern Shore Saturday morning.

Gusty northeast winds accompanying the snow may cause reduced visibility at times in blowing snow.

Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow.

Snowfall warnings are issued when significant snowfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.