Late March Snowstorm

078

FXUS61 KCAR 232345

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

745 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will cross the region tonight into Monday. Low

pressure will move along the Downeast coast Monday night, then

exit across the Maritimes Tuesday. Another low will cross the

region Wednesday. High pressure will cross the region Thursday.

A cold front will cross the region Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

745 PM Update: Clear skies persist over the forecast area this

evening, while winds continue to gust to around 20 to 25 mph. As

such, temperatures have yet to quickly drop, with a lack of a

substantial surface inversion thus far. However, the St. John

Valley has seen dewpoints drop to around zero. So should surface

decoupling take place, some of these typically cooler valleys

could drop to or even below zero. But if the winds do not

dissipate completely, a warmer setup could be in store.

Looking at ensemble spreads, the coldest hires guidance is also

the hires guidance that has been found to have a cold bias in

the shift in season. With that in mind and based on current

temperature observations, the forecast low temperature was

adjusted up slightly in this update.

Previous Discussion:

Brief surface ridging will continue through tonight. With the

cold airmass, calming WNW winds, and clear skies, tonight will

be a perfect night for ample radiational cooling. Temps should

reach into the single digits in the north and teens in the

south. Cannot rule out some areas in the far north dropping to

single digits below zero.

By the early morning, the ridge will move to the east as the

large occlusion centered over the Great Lakes will start to move

towards the area. Clouds will begin to increase and continue for

the rest of the day. As of this update, the high res models do

show the precip generally beginning mid to late morning.

However, there is a concern with the system picking up speed as

the vertically stack low starts to move closer to the area and

the triple point begins to form over the waters. Decided to go

with the high res for the weather forecast, but began the

advisory earlier due to possible impacts in the morning. If the

next set of models show a trend of a slower start to the precip,

then the advisory will be adjusted. By the afternoon, the triple

point will start to close off over the waters creating a new low

pressure system. The entire region will be seeing snowfall, but

the question will be with the switch to S flow, is when the warm

air will surge onshore changing snow to rain. Models show the

925mb 0C line moving into Downeast by the late afternoon to

early evening.

With the increasing S flow, the majority of snowfall will remain

south of the Central Highlands with amounts up to 6 inches

possible. North of the Central Highlands will see lower amounts

around 3 inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through 2 AM

Tuesday. Primary low pressure tracks east across Quebec

province Monday night. At the same time, a secondary low will

track along the Downeast coast early, exiting across the

Maritimes late. Based on critical thicknesses, expect

precipitation in the form of snow across much of the region

early Monday night, with a rain/snow mix along the Downeast

coast. Additional snow accumulations are expected early Monday

night. Snow then tapers to snow showers across northern areas

later Monday night in the wake of the exiting low. Storm total

snow accumulations across the advisory area through early

Tuesday morning will generally range from 3 to 6 inches. The

lesser accumulations will generally occur along the Downeast

coast where the snow will mix with rain. Across Downeast areas,

snow showers will end overnight leaving partly/mostly cloudy

skies. The remnants of the primary low cross the region Tuesday,

with the supporting upper trof approaching late. Expect a

chance of morning snow showers, afternoon rain/snow showers,

across the north and mountains Tuesday. Could also have a slight

chance of afternoon rain showers Downeast. Otherwise, expect

mostly cloudy skies north with partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies

Downeast. Surface troffing persists Tuesday night while the

upper trof crosses the region. Expect mostly cloudy skies along

with a chance of snow/rain showers across northern areas Tuesday

night, with partly cloudy skies Downeast. Another upper trof

will approach Wednesday. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a

chance of snow/rain showers across northern areas Wednesday.

Expect increasing clouds Downeast Wednesday, along with the

chance of afternoon rain showers. Expect slightly above normal

level temperatures Tuesday. Expect near normal, to slightly

above normal, level temperatures Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

The upper trof crosses the region Wednesday night. Expect decreasing

snow shower chances along with mostly cloudy skies across northern

areas Wednesday night. Across Downeast areas, expect mostly cloudy

skies along with a chance of snow/rain showers early then

partly cloudy late. High pressure crosses the region Thursday,

with a cold front then approaching later Thursday night.

Generally expect partly cloudy skies Thursday. Clouds then

increase Thursday night. Could also have a slight chance of snow

showers late across mostly western portions of the forecast

area. The cold front, along with an upper low, cross the region

Friday then exit late. Expect partly/mostly cloudy skies Friday

along with a chance of snow showers north, a chance of snow/rain

showers Downeast. High pressure should begin to build toward

the region Friday night with generalLy partly cloudy skies. High

pressure should cross the region Saturday with partly cloudy

skies. High pressure should persist early Sunday. Low pressure

tracking across the Great Lakes could then draw a warm front

toward the region later Sunday with increasing clouds. Could

also have a chance of snow late across northern areas, with a

chance of snow/rain Downeast. Generally expect near normal

level temperatures Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NEAR TERM: VFR conditions for all terminals tonight through

Monday morning. Cigs will begin to fall towards MVFR/IFR late

Monday afternoon into Monday evening as snow moves in from the

SW. NW winds 5-10 kts becoming light and variable overnight.

For Monday, S winds 5-10 kts.

SHORT TERM:

Monday night...Across northern areas, IFR/LIFR with snow early then

MVFR/IFR late with snow tapering to snow showers. Across Downeast

areas, IFR/LIFR with snow and rain early then VFR late.

East/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Across northern areas, VFR/MVFR with

a chance of snow and rain showers. VFR Downeast with a slight

chance of rain showers. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots

Tuesday. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots Tuesday night.

Wednesday...Across northern areas, VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow

and rain showers. VFR Downeast with a chance of afternoon rain

showers. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming variable.

Wednesday night...Across northern areas, VFR/MVFR with a chance of

snow showers. Across Downeast areas, VFR/MVFR early with a chance of

snow and rain showers then VFR with showers ending. Variable

winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west/northwest 10 to 15 knots with

gusts up to 20 knots.

Thursday...Occasional MVFR early north. Otherwise, VFR.

West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20

knots, becoming west/southwest 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night...VFR early. VFR/MVFR late with a slight chance of

snow showers. West/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming

south/southwest.

Friday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, with a chance of snow and rain

showers. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming

west/northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: The Small Craft Advisory will end before midnight

tonight with the decrease in winds and seas. By Monday

afternoon, winds will increase to SCA levels.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions expected Monday

night into Tuesday night. Conditions below small craft advisory

levels Wednesday. Rain and snow tapering to showers Monday

night. A chance of rain showers Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Several ice jams remain locked in place across northern

Maine.

Ice out is underway and continues on many rivers from the

Central Highlands northward into the Crown of Maine. River ice is

leading to an elevated risk for ice jam flooding early this week.

Across Downeast Maine, most of the rivers have completely

lost their ice.

Flooding is ongoing on North Caribou Road at Strickland Road

along the Caribou/Fort Fairfield line due to an ice jam. A Flood

Advisory remains in effect for this area.

An 1.5 mile ice jam remains in the Wade area of the Aroostook River.

Portions of Gardner Creek and the camp road are currently

underwater. A Flood Advisory remains in effect for this area.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday

     for MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...AStrauser/LaFlash

Short Term...Norcross

Long Term...Norcross

Aviation...AStrauser/LaFlash/Norcross

Marine...AStrauser/LaFlash/Norcross

Hydrology...Sinko/Norcross

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

348 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025

MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032-240915-

/O.NEW.KCAR.WW.Y.0011.250324T1400Z-250325T0600Z/

Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-Central Piscataquis-

Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central

Washington-Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-Southern

Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

Including the cities of Millinocket, Amherst, Princeton, Bar

Harbor, Patten, Perry, Dover-Foxcroft, Medway, Dedham, Grand Lake

Stream, Vanceboro, Blanchard, Machias, East Millinocket, Bangor,

Sherman, Lincoln, Aurora, Cherryfield, Danforth, Eastbrook,

Smyrna Mills, Topsfield, Old Town, Orono, Guilford, Bucksport,

Houlton, Wesley, Milo, Hodgdon, Springfield, Orland, Monson,

Brewer, Eastport, Great Pond, Ellsworth, Calais, Castine,

Howland, and Greenville

348 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT

TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 6

  inches...with the lesser accumulations along the immediate

  Downeast coast.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Coastal DownEast, Far

  Eastern, Interior DownEast, and Penobscot Valley Maine

* WHEN...From 10 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous

  conditions will impact the Monday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause

primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited

visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to

newengland511.org.

&&

$$

Norcross

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

335 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025

MEZ001>004-241945-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-

335 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Far Northern Maine and North

Woods Maine.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Localized ice jam flooding remains possible early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

10:41 PM ADT Sunday 23 March 2025

Special Weather Statement in effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.

Rapidly accumulating snow is possible.

Total snowfall: 10 to 15 cm or possibly more.

Time span: Monday evening until Tuesday morning.

Remarks: A low pressure system will approach from the Bay of Fundy Monday night then across the island early Tuesday morning. It is possible that the track of the low may shift slightly over the next day or so. 

People traveling should take precautions as driving conditions could deteriorate in rapidly accumulating snow.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #PEStorm.

10:38 PM ADT Sunday 23 March 2025

Special Weather Statement in effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County

Rapidly accumulating snow possible for southern New Brunswick.

Total snowfall: 10 to 15 cm possibly up 25 cm.

Time span: Monday evening until Tuesday morning.

Remarks: A low pressure system will track along the Fundy coast Monday night. This low will bring snow to southern New Brunswick. It is possible that the track of the low may shift slightly over the next day or so. 

People traveling should take precautions as driving conditions could deteriorate in rapidly accumulating snow.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NBStorm.