Historic Catastrophic Category Five Hurricane Melissa Could Poses A Long-Range Threat To This Region

701 

WTNT33 KNHC 272352

TCPAT3

 

BULLETIN

Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 26A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025

800 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

 

...MELISSA EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING 

WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA LATER TONIGHT AND ON 

TUESDAY...

 

 

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.6N 78.6W

ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA

ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.85 INCHES

 

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 

None.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Jamaica

* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and

Holguin

* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Turks and Caicos Islands

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Haiti

* Cuban province of Las Tunas

* Turks and Caicos Islands

 

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 

somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36 

hours before the anticipated first occurrence of 

tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside 

preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life 

and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion 

in Cuba.

 

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

 

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.

 

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located  

near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 78.6 West. Melissa is moving 

slowly toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).  A slow turn toward 

the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the 

northeast at a slightly faster forward speed on Tuesday.  A 

northeastward motion with a faster forward speed is expected on 

Wednesday and Thursday.  On the forecast track, the core of Melissa 

is expected to move near or over Jamaica by early Tuesday, across 

southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern or 

central Bahamas on Wednesday.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely 

before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica.  However, Melissa is 

expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely 

powerful major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane strength 

when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195

miles (315 km).

 

The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is 

909 mb (26.85 inches).

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

 

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and

catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force wind conditions

are expected to begin late tonight and continue into Tuesday. 

Within the eyewall, total structural failure is likely, especially 

in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the 

windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent 

stronger.

 

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba on 

Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the 

hurricane warning area starting Tuesday evening into Wednesday 

morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti late 

Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central

Bahamas on Wednesday.  Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the

Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday with hurricane conditions 

also possible on Wednesday. 

 

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches

to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches for

southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima

of 40 inches possible.  Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous

landslides are likely.

 

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with

local amounts to 25 inches, is expected by Monday into Wednesday

resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash

flooding with numerous landslides.

 

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is

expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash

flooding.

 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with

Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total

Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

 

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the

south coast of Jamaica late tonight and on Tuesday.  Peak storm 

surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and 

to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This 

storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. On 

the northwest coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the 

possibility of 1 to 3 feet of storm surge above ground level.

 

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast

coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights

could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the

east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge

will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in

the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

 

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of

Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the

next several days, and the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands,

and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult

products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

 

$$

Forecaster Pasch

000

WTNT43 KNHC 272042

TCDAT3

 

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  26

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025

500 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

A few hours ago, data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter 

aircraft showed that the central pressure in Melissa had fallen to 

near 906 mb. The aircraft measured maximum 700-mb flight-level 

winds of 161 kt, which supports surface winds of near 145 kt. In 

addition, low-level winds measured by a dropwindsonde in the 

northeastern eyewall support surface winds of 155 kt. During the 

time since the aircraft departed the hurricane, there has been 

little change in organization and no obvious signs that Melissa has 

weakened. Thus, the initial intensity is set at 150 kt as a blend 

of the surface wind estimates mentioned above. NOAA and Air Force 

Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will again investigate Melissa 

during the next few hours.

Melissa is starting its northward turn, and the initial motion is 

now northwestward or 315/3 kt. The mid-level ridge north of Melissa 

continues to weaken as a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moves 

eastward through the southeastern United States into the 

southwestern Atlantic.  This should cause the hurricane to turn 

northward during the next 6-12 h or so at a continued slow forward 

speed.  After 18 h or so, Melissa should turn northeastward with 

a slight increase in forward speed as the mid-latitude westerly 

flow becomes the dominant steering mechanism. A continued 

northeastward motion with a significant increase in forward speed 

is expected from 36 h through the end of the forecast period. On 

the forecast track, the center of Melissa will be near or over 

Jamaica late tonight and on Tuesday, cross eastern Cuba Tuesday 

night or early Wednesday, and then move near or over the Bahamas 

and the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday.  After that, the cyclone 

could reach the vicinity of Bermuda on Thursday night. The track 

guidance envelope has nudged a little to the west and north since 

the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is also a little 

to the west and north of the previous track.

Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12-24 h

due to the possibility that Melissa will start an eyewall 

replacement cycle (ERC). However, the previous aircraft data showed 

no evidence that an ERC had started, and it is possible that the 

upcoming aircraft may find Melissa is stronger than 150 kt. 

Regardless, even with an ERC it is unlikely that Melissa will 

weaken significantly before reaching Jamaica, and there is no 

practical difference in Melissa making landfall at category 4 or 5 

intensity, since both categories produce catastrophic wind damage. 

After reaching Jamaica, a combination of land interaction and 

increasing southwesterly shear should cause weakening, although 

Melissa is still forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches 

Cuba.  Once over the Atlantic, stronger shear should cause more 

substantial weakening, and Melissa is expected to become 

extratropical by the end of the forecast period as it interacts 

with a large baroclinic low over the north Atlantic.  The new 

intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the previous and 

again follows the trend of the intensity consensus.

 

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Jamaica:  Remain in your safe shelter and do not venture 

outside. Catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous 

landslides are expected through Tuesday. The eyewall’s destructive 

winds may cause total structural failure, particularly in higher 

elevations, leading to widespread infrastructural damage, prolonged 

power and communication outages, and isolated communities. Along the 

southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are 

anticipated through Tuesday. 

 

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic:  Catastrophic and 

life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across 

southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic 

through midweek.  In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and 

isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are 

expected late Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

3. Eastern Cuba:  Heavy rainfall with life-threatening and 

potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides is expected 

to begin tonight.  Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds 

are expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night.   Preparations should 

be rushed to completion.

 

4. Southeast and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane 

conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are 

expected across portions of the southeast and central Bahamas on 

Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials 

and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night.  

Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and a significant storm 

surge is expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  27/2100Z 16.7N  78.4W  150 KT 175 MPH

 12H  28/0600Z 17.1N  78.3W  145 KT 165 MPH

 24H  28/1800Z 18.2N  77.8W  125 KT 145 MPH...INLAND

 36H  29/0600Z 19.8N  76.6W  110 KT 125 MPH...OVER WATER

 48H  29/1800Z 21.8N  75.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

 60H  30/0600Z 24.3N  72.9W   85 KT 100 MPH

 72H  30/1800Z 27.8N  69.9W   80 KT  90 MPH

 96H  31/1800Z 37.1N  60.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

120H  01/1800Z 44.7N  45.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

$$

Forecaster Beven

332

FXUS61 KCAR 272341

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

741 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

An upper level trough will remain across the region early week

while surface high pressure gradually builds south across Quebec

through midweek. A large low pressure system will cross the

region Friday and move north of Maine into the weekend.

&&....

.......LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Moisture from Hurricane Melissa will likely be entrained into

occluding surface low heading up into the northeast U.S. Vertically

stacked low looks to be located over wrn NY/PA at 00z Friday.

Pressure gradient tightens between deepening sfc low and strong high

pres off of the Maritime. Depending on how strong ridge axis over

ern areas is will determine how quickly rain can move in over entire

region. Given latest operational models and ensemble guidance, have

gone with 90-100% chance of stratiform rain late Thursday night

through the day on Friday. Elevated instability looks to be possible

over the Downeast coast on Friday, resulting in a slgt chc of

tstms in the afternoon.

PW values with the system will rise toward the 95th percentile late

Thursday night into Friday. Total rainfall amounts look to be

between 1-2 inches with this system, with isolated higher amounts

possible. Southeasterly low-level jet between 35-50kts looks to move

twd the coast on Friday morning, depending on track of sfc low. Have

not made adjustments to wind fcst as still some variations in the

track of low, thus low-level jet but expect winds will need to be

tweaked in the coming days. It/s looking more and more likely that

Halloween will end up being a bagful of tricks.

Wrap-around showers will exist thru the weekend over the north thru

the end of the period. Temperatures will slowly diminish below

normal values into early next week.....