BERYL TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO NOVA SCOTIA
WOCN31 CWHX 211200
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT
FRIDAY 21 JULY 2006.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT
...POST-TROPICAL BERYL TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AND TO NEWFOUNDLAND SATURDAY...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
42.1 N AND LONGITUDE 68.2 W... ABOUT 140 NAUTICAL MILES OR 260 KM
SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1001 MB. BERYL IS
MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS... 33 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 21 9.00 AM 42.1N 68.2W 1001 45 83 UNDERGOING TRANSITION
JUL 21 9.00 PM 44.7N 63.7W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 9.00 AM 47.0N 57.5W 1003 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 9.00 PM 49.4N 51.3W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 AM 51.8N 45.2W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING
HALIFAX COUNTY FOR AMOUNTS BETWEEN 25 AND 50 MM. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM WITH BERYL. EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL LIKELY SEE SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS
IN THE 60 TO 80 KM/H RANGE WHICH WOULD BE BARELY ENOUGH TO BREAK
SMALL TREE BRANCHES.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR REGIONS SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW WITH WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SEA STATE NEAR 4 METERS IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE TRACK. MODERATELY ROUGH SURF IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SOUTH COASTAL WATERS OF NEWFOUNDLAND SATURDAY.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
CONVECTION IS STILL OCCURRING IN SPITE OF THE TRACKING OVER COOL
WATER WHICH IS NEAR 17C. MOST OF IT IS APPEARING DOWNSHEAR OR IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL ESTIMATED NEAR 45
KNOTS WITH MSLP NEAR 1001 MB.
B. PROGNOSTIC
WE HAVE NUDGED THE TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FORECAST..BUT
STILL KEEP THE CENTRE ROUGHLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE MAIN POINT TO MAKE IS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER WE DO EXPECT THE CENTRE TO
CROSS EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BRINGING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO THE
AVALON AND BURIN PENINSULAS ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD STILL BE
NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT WITH GUSTS TO ONLY ABOUT 70 KM/H.
FORECAST REASONING CONSISTS OF A BLEND OF GEM REG OUTPUT AND
CONCEPTUAL UNDERSTANDING OF THESE TYPES OF STORMS. MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE MERGES THE LOW WITH A NORTHERN TROUGH TOO SOON..LEADING
TO A NORTHWARD-BIASED TRACK. THE GEM REG TRACK LOOKS REASONABLE
ALTHOUGH WE HAVE TO DECREASE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND BUMP UP THE
WINDS FOR OUR FORECAST. THE TIMING OF THE LOW LOOKS GOOD. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE INFLATED SOMEWHAT FROM THE GEM REG TO REFLECT THE
ANTICIPATED AMOUNTS THAT WOULD OCCUR IN DOWNPOURS FROM THIS TROPICAL
AIRMASS.
THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION PATTERN PREDICTED BY GEM IS REMINISCENT
OF A TRANSITIONING TROPICAL STORM WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING IN A FEW BANDS AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTRE. THIS IS WHAT WE
EXPECT TO SEE OVER NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. WITHIN THE BANDS..SQUALLY TYPE
DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS PATTERN IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A
RAPID MODE OF ET AS INDICATED IN SOME CPS FORECASTS FROM THURSDAY
WHERE THE RAINFALL DOES NOT BECOME AS LEFTWARD-SKEWED AS A STRONGLY
BAROCLINIC-TYPE TRANSITION.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
WE HAVE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN WARNINGS AND WIND SPEEDS. DETAILED FORECASTS ARE FOUND UNDER
FORECAST HEADERS FPCN11/14/15 CWHX FOR THE MARITIME PROVINCES AND
UNDER FPCN16 CWHX FOR NEWFOUNDLAND. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
NEWFOUNDLAND HAS BEEN ISSUED UNDER THE WOCN16 CWHX HEADER.
D. MARINE WEATHER
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
21/12Z 60 60 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/00Z 90 90 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/12Z 90 110 60 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/00Z 90 130 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/12Z 90 170 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END FOGARTY/LAFORTUNE
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT
FRIDAY 21 JULY 2006.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT
...POST-TROPICAL BERYL TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AND TO NEWFOUNDLAND SATURDAY...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
42.1 N AND LONGITUDE 68.2 W... ABOUT 140 NAUTICAL MILES OR 260 KM
SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1001 MB. BERYL IS
MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS... 33 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 21 9.00 AM 42.1N 68.2W 1001 45 83 UNDERGOING TRANSITION
JUL 21 9.00 PM 44.7N 63.7W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 9.00 AM 47.0N 57.5W 1003 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 9.00 PM 49.4N 51.3W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 AM 51.8N 45.2W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING
HALIFAX COUNTY FOR AMOUNTS BETWEEN 25 AND 50 MM. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM WITH BERYL. EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL LIKELY SEE SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS
IN THE 60 TO 80 KM/H RANGE WHICH WOULD BE BARELY ENOUGH TO BREAK
SMALL TREE BRANCHES.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR REGIONS SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW WITH WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SEA STATE NEAR 4 METERS IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE TRACK. MODERATELY ROUGH SURF IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SOUTH COASTAL WATERS OF NEWFOUNDLAND SATURDAY.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
CONVECTION IS STILL OCCURRING IN SPITE OF THE TRACKING OVER COOL
WATER WHICH IS NEAR 17C. MOST OF IT IS APPEARING DOWNSHEAR OR IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL ESTIMATED NEAR 45
KNOTS WITH MSLP NEAR 1001 MB.
B. PROGNOSTIC
WE HAVE NUDGED THE TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FORECAST..BUT
STILL KEEP THE CENTRE ROUGHLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE MAIN POINT TO MAKE IS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER WE DO EXPECT THE CENTRE TO
CROSS EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BRINGING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO THE
AVALON AND BURIN PENINSULAS ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD STILL BE
NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT WITH GUSTS TO ONLY ABOUT 70 KM/H.
FORECAST REASONING CONSISTS OF A BLEND OF GEM REG OUTPUT AND
CONCEPTUAL UNDERSTANDING OF THESE TYPES OF STORMS. MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE MERGES THE LOW WITH A NORTHERN TROUGH TOO SOON..LEADING
TO A NORTHWARD-BIASED TRACK. THE GEM REG TRACK LOOKS REASONABLE
ALTHOUGH WE HAVE TO DECREASE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND BUMP UP THE
WINDS FOR OUR FORECAST. THE TIMING OF THE LOW LOOKS GOOD. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE INFLATED SOMEWHAT FROM THE GEM REG TO REFLECT THE
ANTICIPATED AMOUNTS THAT WOULD OCCUR IN DOWNPOURS FROM THIS TROPICAL
AIRMASS.
THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION PATTERN PREDICTED BY GEM IS REMINISCENT
OF A TRANSITIONING TROPICAL STORM WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING IN A FEW BANDS AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTRE. THIS IS WHAT WE
EXPECT TO SEE OVER NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. WITHIN THE BANDS..SQUALLY TYPE
DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS PATTERN IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A
RAPID MODE OF ET AS INDICATED IN SOME CPS FORECASTS FROM THURSDAY
WHERE THE RAINFALL DOES NOT BECOME AS LEFTWARD-SKEWED AS A STRONGLY
BAROCLINIC-TYPE TRANSITION.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
WE HAVE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN WARNINGS AND WIND SPEEDS. DETAILED FORECASTS ARE FOUND UNDER
FORECAST HEADERS FPCN11/14/15 CWHX FOR THE MARITIME PROVINCES AND
UNDER FPCN16 CWHX FOR NEWFOUNDLAND. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
NEWFOUNDLAND HAS BEEN ISSUED UNDER THE WOCN16 CWHX HEADER.
D. MARINE WEATHER
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
21/12Z 60 60 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/00Z 90 90 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/12Z 90 110 60 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/00Z 90 130 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/12Z 90 170 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END FOGARTY/LAFORTUNE
posted by Advackia at 5:13 AM
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