POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA
WOCN31 CWHX 220000
POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
FRIDAY 21 JULY 2006.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 12.00 AM ADT
...POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 45.3 N AND LONGITUDE 63.7 W... ABOUT 16 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 30 KM WEST OF TRURO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40
KNOTS...74 KM/H...AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1002 MB. BERYL IS MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS...46 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 21 9.00 PM 45.3N 63.7W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 9.00 AM 48.0N 57.5W 1003 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 9.00 PM 49.2N 51.8W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 AM 50.0N 46.0W 1004 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 PM 50.0N 41.0W 1006 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 9.00 AM 49.0N 36.0W 1008 30 56 DISSIPATING
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
RAINFALL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AS OF 9 PM FOR PORTIONS OF PRINCE
EDWARD ISLAND AND HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR NOVA SCOTIA. EXPOSED LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE TRACK OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA COULD STILL SEE GUSTS
NEAR 80 KM/H UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SUETE WIND
WARNING FOR NORTHERN INVERNESS COUNTY IN CAPE BRETON.
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTRE WITH A MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 61 MM AT BRIER ISLAND. THE
PREVIOUSLY QUOTED 64-MM TOTAL AT YARMOUTH WAS NOT THE OFFICIAL
AMOUNT. THE OFFICIAL AMOUNT BASED ON DIRECT RAIN GAUGE MEASUREMENTS
WAS IN FACT 46 MM OR JUST UNDER 2 INCHES.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA RAINFALL AMOUNTS REPORTED
AS OF LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WERE GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35 MM
RANGE. WIND GUSTS IN THE HALIFAX AREA WERE BETWEEN 60 AND 80 KM/H AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OCCURRED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SMALL TREE
BRANCHES WERE BROKEN RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
WE WILL HAVE SOME MORE INFORMATION REGARDING OBSERVATIONS AND IMPACTS
TONIGHT IN OUR MIDNIGHT UPDATE.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR REGIONS SOUTH OF THE TRACK
WITH WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SEA STATE NEAR 5 METERS
IS EXPECTED WELL SOUTH OF THE TRACK. MODERATELY ROUGH SURF IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING. ROUGH SURF WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND
SATURDAY.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
THE CENTRE OF POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL CAME ASHORE NEAR YARMOUTH
AROUND 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS STRONGEST WINDS
HAVE MOSTLY BEEN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM.
OVERALL OUR WIND AND RAIN PREDICTIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED REASONABLY
WELL EXCEPT FOR SOME HEAVIER RAINS FARTHER NORTH THAN WE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING..AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG ATLANTIC COASTAL NOVA
SCOTIA. THE GUSTS WERE STILL ONLY ABOUT 10 KM/H HIGHER THAN PREDICTED
YESTERDAY. RAINFALL RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 25 MM/HR IN THE PRIMARY
LEADING BAND OF RAIN AHEAD OF BERYL'S REMNANT LOW CENTRE.
B. PROGNOSTIC
OUR FAVOURED TRACK PREDICTION FOLLOWS THE UKMET..CONSEQUENTLY WE HAVE
MADE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS COMPARED TO OUR LAST FORECAST
TRACK. POST-TROPICAL BERYL SHOULD TRACK OVER WESTERN CAPE BRETON
OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS
OF BERYL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS
SATURDAY EVENING. SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE UKMET GFS AND NOGAPS
..THEN TAKE THE REMNANTS OF BERYL ON A SLIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST TURN ON
SUNDAY WHILE GOING AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS EVENING JUST
AHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRE OF THE LOW.
D. MARINE WEATHER
NONE.
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
22/00Z 40 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/12Z 40 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/00Z 40 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END LAFORTUNE/FOGARTY
POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
FRIDAY 21 JULY 2006.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 12.00 AM ADT
...POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 45.3 N AND LONGITUDE 63.7 W... ABOUT 16 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 30 KM WEST OF TRURO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40
KNOTS...74 KM/H...AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1002 MB. BERYL IS MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS...46 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 21 9.00 PM 45.3N 63.7W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 9.00 AM 48.0N 57.5W 1003 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 9.00 PM 49.2N 51.8W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 AM 50.0N 46.0W 1004 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 PM 50.0N 41.0W 1006 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 9.00 AM 49.0N 36.0W 1008 30 56 DISSIPATING
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
RAINFALL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AS OF 9 PM FOR PORTIONS OF PRINCE
EDWARD ISLAND AND HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR NOVA SCOTIA. EXPOSED LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE TRACK OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA COULD STILL SEE GUSTS
NEAR 80 KM/H UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SUETE WIND
WARNING FOR NORTHERN INVERNESS COUNTY IN CAPE BRETON.
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTRE WITH A MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 61 MM AT BRIER ISLAND. THE
PREVIOUSLY QUOTED 64-MM TOTAL AT YARMOUTH WAS NOT THE OFFICIAL
AMOUNT. THE OFFICIAL AMOUNT BASED ON DIRECT RAIN GAUGE MEASUREMENTS
WAS IN FACT 46 MM OR JUST UNDER 2 INCHES.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA RAINFALL AMOUNTS REPORTED
AS OF LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WERE GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35 MM
RANGE. WIND GUSTS IN THE HALIFAX AREA WERE BETWEEN 60 AND 80 KM/H AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OCCURRED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SMALL TREE
BRANCHES WERE BROKEN RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
WE WILL HAVE SOME MORE INFORMATION REGARDING OBSERVATIONS AND IMPACTS
TONIGHT IN OUR MIDNIGHT UPDATE.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR REGIONS SOUTH OF THE TRACK
WITH WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SEA STATE NEAR 5 METERS
IS EXPECTED WELL SOUTH OF THE TRACK. MODERATELY ROUGH SURF IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING. ROUGH SURF WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND
SATURDAY.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
THE CENTRE OF POST-TROPICAL STORM BERYL CAME ASHORE NEAR YARMOUTH
AROUND 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS STRONGEST WINDS
HAVE MOSTLY BEEN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM.
OVERALL OUR WIND AND RAIN PREDICTIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED REASONABLY
WELL EXCEPT FOR SOME HEAVIER RAINS FARTHER NORTH THAN WE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING..AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG ATLANTIC COASTAL NOVA
SCOTIA. THE GUSTS WERE STILL ONLY ABOUT 10 KM/H HIGHER THAN PREDICTED
YESTERDAY. RAINFALL RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 25 MM/HR IN THE PRIMARY
LEADING BAND OF RAIN AHEAD OF BERYL'S REMNANT LOW CENTRE.
B. PROGNOSTIC
OUR FAVOURED TRACK PREDICTION FOLLOWS THE UKMET..CONSEQUENTLY WE HAVE
MADE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS COMPARED TO OUR LAST FORECAST
TRACK. POST-TROPICAL BERYL SHOULD TRACK OVER WESTERN CAPE BRETON
OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS
OF BERYL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS
SATURDAY EVENING. SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE UKMET GFS AND NOGAPS
..THEN TAKE THE REMNANTS OF BERYL ON A SLIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST TURN ON
SUNDAY WHILE GOING AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS EVENING JUST
AHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRE OF THE LOW.
D. MARINE WEATHER
NONE.
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
22/00Z 40 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/12Z 40 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/00Z 40 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END LAFORTUNE/FOGARTY
posted by Advackia at 6:22 PM
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