Tropical storm Cristobal takes aim at Nova Scotia

WOCN31 CWHX 210000
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
SUNDAY 20 JULY 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

... CRISTOBAL TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 35.0 N AND LONGITUDE 75.4 W... ABOUT 15 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 30 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 1007 MB. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 7 KNOTS... 13 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 20 9.00 PM 35.0N 75.4W 1007 45 83
JUL 21 9.00 AM 36.8N 73.0W 1000 50 93
JUL 21 9.00 PM 39.3N 69.9W 1002 45 83
JUL 22 9.00 AM 42.5N 65.4W 1003 45 83
JUL 22 9.00 PM 44.9N 60.9W 1004 35 65
JUL 23 9.00 AM 46.3N 56.6W 1009 30 56
JUL 23 9.00 PM 47.4N 51.9W 1012 25 46

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GIVEN FORECAST TRACK, EXPECT SOME RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY
OVER NOVA SCOTIA.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGINNING OVER GEORGES BANK TUESDAY
MORNING AND SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
LOCATION OF CENTRE WELL CAPTURED BY RADAR AND BUOYS OFF NORTH
CAROLINA. BUOY 41025 NEAR CAPE HATTERAS...ABOUT 60 NM NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTRE.. REPORTED PEAK WINDS OF 33 KNOTS.
ANALYSIS IS LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST NOAA RECON
FLIGHT. CONVECTION IS INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE ORGANISED NEAR
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE THE SURFACE CENTRE MAKING THE SURFACE CENTRE
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY.

B. PROGNOSTIC
INITIAL MOVEMENT IS QUITE SLOW... ABOUT 7 KNOTS TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. ON MONDAY CRISTOBAL SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARDS AND BEGINS TO STEER
IT. OUR TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE
INITIAL SLOW MOVEMENT. WE ALSO MOVE IT SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT...
LEANING TOWARDS THE 500 MB VORTICITY GUIDANCE IN GFS AND GEM..
TAKING CRISTOBAL TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS CLEARLY BEING HINDERED BY FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY ONCE IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARMER WATER. ONCE IT PASSES NORTH OF LATITUDE
40 DEGREES NORTH IT WILL MOVE OVER SSTS BELOW 20C WHICH COMBINED
WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN A WEAKENING PROCESS AND
PREVENT IT FROM ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING. ...A TRACK TOWARDS
YARMOUTH AND FURTHER WEST...AS HINTED AT BY HWRF..WOULD TAKE IT OVER
MUCH COLDER WATER AND MORE RAPID WEAKENING. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
OVER THE SCOTIAN SLOPE WATERS WOULD KEEP IT OVER 22C DEG WATER FOR
LONGER.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
A WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE RAIN ON MONDAY FOR NOVA SCOTIA.
WITH THE PRESENT TRACK CRISTOBAL WOULD BRING MORE RAIN ON TUESDAY.
THE IMPACTS MAY BE COMPOUNDED WITH MONDAYS RAIN POSSIBLY
PRE-SATURATING THE GROUND AND POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT
RUN OFF IN SOME LOCATIONS.


D. MARINE WEATHER
GALE FORCE WINDS PLACED INTO EXTENDED FORCAST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WATERS OF THE MARITIME MARINE DISTRICT.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
21/00Z 80 110 90 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
21/12Z 110 150 90 50 50 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/00Z 110 180 85 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/12Z 80 150 70 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/00Z 0 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END MCILDOON/ROUSSEL