Blogging About Hurricane Bill #20

WOCN31 CWHX 231200
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM ADT Sunday
23 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT

...Hurricane Bill storm centre just south of Nova Scotia now
Bringing rain and wind to the province..Conditions deteriorating..

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 42.6 N
And longitude 65.3 W... About 80 nautical miles or 150 km
South southeast of Yarmouth. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 70 knots... 130 km/h... And central pressure at 960
MB. Bill is moving northeast at 26 knots... 48 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 23 9.00 AM 42.6N 65.3W 960 70 130
Aug 23 3.00 PM 44.4N 62.6W 970 65 120
Aug 23 9.00 PM 46.2N 59.2W 980 65 120
Aug 24 3.00 AM 47.7N 54.9W 985 55 102
Aug 24 9.00 AM 49.0N 49.6W 990 50 93
Aug 24 3.00 PM 49.9N 44.0W 990 50 93 post-tropical
Aug 24 9.00 PM 50.8N 38.4W 990 50 93 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary

For the Maritimes:
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Atlantic coastal Nova
Scotia with wind speeds of 65 km/h with gusts to 90.

Hurricane watches are continued for eastern mainland Nova Scotia
And Southern Cape Breton with potential wind speeds of 120 km/h
With gusts to 140.

Tropical storm watches remain in effect for the remainder of Nova
Scotia and Eastern Prince Edward Island with potential wind
Speeds of 65 km/h with gusts to 90.

For Newfoundland:
Tropical storm watches remain in effect for all of Newfoundland
except the Northern Peninsula. Previous tropical storm watches
Have been upgraded to tropical storm warnings for southeastern
Regions of the island..From east of harbour Breton to Bonavista
With potential wind speeds of 70 km/h with gusts to 100 and local
wind gusts to 120 km/h over exposed coastal areas to the south of
The track storm track.

Weather impacts:

Rainfall...
A swath of very heavy rain will fall to the north and along the storm
Track. Rainfall amounts of 75 to 100 mm over Nova Scotia..Pei and
Southern Newfoundland are expected where local amounts up to 150 mm
Are possible. As a result.. Local flooding can be expected in
flood-prone areas. Heavy downpours will reduce visibilities and lead
to standing water presenting a hazard to motorists. Heavy rainfall
Has the potential to cause street flooding..Undermining of some road
Surfaces..Washouts and flooded basements.

Winds...
The presence of strong east to northeasterly winds and
Rain-laden tree foliage could lead to the breaking of some tree
branches which would down some utility lines. Please stay tuned
In the event that the storm behavior changes where the wind
Threat could also change.

Coastal surf and surge...
A combination of storm surge (0.5 to 1.0 metres) and heavy
Surf (large waves ranging from 5 to 10 metres) along the Atlantic
coast of Nova Scotia and Southern Newfoundland is expected. These
conditions may lead to shoreline erosion and damage to wharves and
coastal structures as well as generating dangerous rip currents
At local beaches. It is worthy to note that spring tides are
Occurring this weekend..Increasing the threat of coastal flooding.

Attention: spectators are strongly advised to keep a safe distance
from the shoreline due to the rapid approach of large waves.

Further details are available in the public forecast bulletins.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect near and south of
The hurricane track with wind speeds in the range of 65 to 75 knots.
Storm warnings are in effect for areas just north of the track.
Large waves generated by Bill over offshore waters will range from
10 to 14 metres south of the track. Further details are available in
the local sea state forecasts. The envelope of high seas carried
With hurricane Bill will strike coastal regions of Newfoundland
facing the brunt of Bill. A storm surge "watch" will soon be in
effect for the southeasternmost portions of Newfoundland as the
centre of Bill is expected to track across land there.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis
Satellite imagery is indicating that Bill is not far south of Western
Nova Scotia and moving quickly northeast. There is an apparent tilt
in the storm structure since the cold cloud-top circulation is moving
ene while the low-level cloud lines indicate the surface circulation
is moving more to the ne as in the track forecast. The eye and
associated cloud is remarkably well organized for a tropical cyclone
this far north. There is no apparent decrease in convective vigour
At this time. Rain bands on radar have been moving across Western
Nova Scotia with up to 15 mm per hour rates observed so far.

Data from Georges Bank buoy indicates the centre of Bill passed just
south of the site while the storm is headed straight for the Lahave
Bank buoy where winds have increased to 62 knots and waves built to
8 metres. The winds have yet to change direction so we do not know
yet where the centre of Bill will be with respect to the buoy. This
Is a critical observation point..The next observation from there
should be at 1215 zulu time.

High-res quikscat has come in just before issue time and shows that
storm-force winds are not far offshore of Nova Scotia.

B. Prognostic

No change in basic track and intensity. The storm centre is now over
cooler water so should begin to diminish in intensity. Hurricane
force winds will remain well offshore south of the track. We still
expect strong winds north of the track along the coast of nova
Scotia due to the large circulation. Gale-force winds have reached
bacarro pt as of 8 AM local time.

As noted in previous messages by our office..Extra tropical
transition to be delayed until tonight since the hurricane will
remain embedded in the ambient tropical airmass that has been
Present over Eastern Canada for much of mid August. This amounts to
Bill retaining tropical characteristics longer than usual.

C. Public weather
The maximum rainfall is expected over the length of Nova Scotia
relatively close to the track given the remaining tropical character
of this storm. Given that the deepest convection of the storm core is
Shearing-off to the ene..Rainfall amounts over mainland Nova Scotia
may not be quite as high as earlier thought..But much too early to
change thinking at this time.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
23/06Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 75 45 25 35
23/12Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 70 50 30 40
23/18Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 55 55 35 35
24/00Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 45 60 45 0
24/06Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0

End fogarty/campbell/nickerson/mercer




WOCN31 CWHX 231200
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT SUNDAY
23 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

...HURRICANE BILL STORM CENTRE JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA NOW
BRINGING RAIN AND WIND TO THE PROVINCE..CONDITIONS DETERIORATING..

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.6 N
AND LONGITUDE 65.3 W... ABOUT 80 NAUTICAL MILES OR 150 KM
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS... 130 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 960
MB. BILL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 26 KNOTS... 48 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 23 9.00 AM 42.6N 65.3W 960 70 130
AUG 23 3.00 PM 44.4N 62.6W 970 65 120
AUG 23 9.00 PM 46.2N 59.2W 980 65 120
AUG 24 3.00 AM 47.7N 54.9W 985 55 102
AUG 24 9.00 AM 49.0N 49.6W 990 50 93
AUG 24 3.00 PM 49.9N 44.0W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 24 9.00 PM 50.8N 38.4W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

FOR THE MARITIMES:
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL NOVA
SCOTIA WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 65 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 90.

HURRICANE WATCHES ARE CONTINUED FOR EASTERN MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHERN CAPE BRETON WITH POTENTIAL WIND SPEEDS OF 120 KM/H
WITH GUSTS TO 140.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND EASTERN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND WITH POTENTIAL WIND
SPEEDS OF 65 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 90.

FOR NEWFOUNDLAND:
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NEWFOUNDLAND
EXCEPT THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. PREVIOUS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTHEASTERN
REGIONS OF THE ISLAND..FROM EAST OF HARBOUR BRETON TO BONAVISTA
WITH POTENTIAL WIND SPEEDS OF 70 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 100 AND LOCAL
WIND GUSTS TO 120 KM/H OVER EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE TRACK STORM TRACK.

WEATHER IMPACTS:

RAINFALL...
A SWATH OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL TO THE NORTH AND ALONG THE STORM
TRACK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 75 TO 100 MM OVER NOVA SCOTIA..PEI AND
SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND ARE EXPECTED WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 150 MM
ARE POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT.. LOCAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED IN
FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND LEAD
TO STANDING WATER PRESENTING A HAZARD TO MOTORISTS. HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STREET FLOODING..UNDERMINING OF SOME ROAD
SURFACES..WASHOUTS AND FLOODED BASEMENTS.

WINDS...
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
RAIN-LADEN TREE FOLIAGE COULD LEAD TO THE BREAKING OF SOME TREE
BRANCHES WHICH WOULD DOWN SOME UTILITY LINES. PLEASE STAY TUNED
IN THE EVENT THAT THE STORM BEHAVIOR CHANGES WHERE THE WIND
THREAT COULD ALSO CHANGE.

COASTAL SURF AND SURGE...
A COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE (0.5 TO 1.0 METRES) AND HEAVY
SURF (LARGE WAVES RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 METRES) ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND IS EXPECTED. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO WHARVES AND
COASTAL STRUCTURES AS WELL AS GENERATING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
AT LOCAL BEACHES. IT IS WORTHY TO NOTE THAT SPRING TIDES ARE
OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND..INCREASING THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING.

ATTENTION: SPECTATORS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO KEEP A SAFE DISTANCE
FROM THE SHORELINE DUE TO THE RAPID APPROACH OF LARGE WAVES.

FURTHER DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST BULLETINS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE HURRICANE TRACK WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE RANGE OF 65 TO 75 KNOTS.
STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE TRACK.
LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY BILL OVER OFFSHORE WATERS WILL RANGE FROM
10 TO 14 METRES SOUTH OF THE TRACK. FURTHER DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE IN
THE LOCAL SEA STATE FORECASTS. THE ENVELOPE OF HIGH SEAS CARRIED
WITH HURRICANE BILL WILL STRIKE COASTAL REGIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND
FACING THE BRUNT OF BILL. A STORM SURGE "WATCH" WILL SOON BE IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE
CENTRE OF BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS LAND THERE.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING THAT BILL IS NOT FAR SOUTH OF WESTERN
NOVA SCOTIA AND MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST. THERE IS AN APPARENT TILT
IN THE STORM STRUCTURE SINCE THE COLD CLOUD-TOP CIRCULATION IS MOVING
ENE WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES INDICATE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION
IS MOVING MORE TO THE NE AS IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE EYE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD IS REMARKABLY WELL ORGANIZED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE
THIS FAR NORTH. THERE IS NO APPARENT DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE VIGOUR
AT THIS TIME. RAIN BANDS ON RADAR HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
NOVA SCOTIA WITH UP TO 15 MM PER HOUR RATES OBSERVED SO FAR.

DATA FROM GEORGES BANK BUOY INDICATES THE CENTRE OF BILL PASSED JUST
SOUTH OF THE SITE WHILE THE STORM IS HEADED STRAIGHT FOR THE LAHAVE
BANK BUOY WHERE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 62 KNOTS AND WAVES BUILT TO
8 METRES. THE WINDS HAVE YET TO CHANGE DIRECTION SO WE DO NOT KNOW
YET WHERE THE CENTRE OF BILL WILL BE WITH RESPECT TO THE BUOY. THIS
IS A CRITICAL OBSERVATION POINT..THE NEXT OBSERVATION FROM THERE
SHOULD BE AT 1215 ZULU TIME.

HIGH-RES QUIKSCAT HAS COME IN JUST BEFORE ISSUE TIME AND SHOWS THAT
STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE NOT FAR OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NO CHANGE IN BASIC TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE STORM CENTRE IS NOW OVER
COOLER WATER SO SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE TRACK. WE STILL
EXPECT STRONG WINDS NORTH OF THE TRACK ALONG THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA DUE TO THE LARGE CIRCULATION. GALE-FORCE WINDS HAVE REACHED
BACARRO PT AS OF 8 AM LOCAL TIME.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS MESSAGES BY OUR OFFICE..EXTRA TROPICAL
TRANSITION TO BE DELAYED UNTIL TONIGHT SINCE THE HURRICANE WILL
REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THE AMBIENT TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENT OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MUCH OF MID AUGUST. THIS AMOUNTS TO
BILL RETAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LONGER THAN USUAL.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THE MAXIMUM RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE LENGTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE TRACK GIVEN THE REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTER
OF THIS STORM. GIVEN THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OF THE STORM CORE IS
SHEARING-OFF TO THE ENE..RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA
MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS EARLIER THOUGHT..BUT MUCH TOO EARLY TO
CHANGE THINKING AT THIS TIME.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
23/06Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 75 45 25 35
23/12Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 70 50 30 40
23/18Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 55 55 35 35
24/00Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 45 60 45 0
24/06Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 300 300 190 130 150 150 100 80 0 0 0 0

END FOGARTY/CAMPBELL/NICKERSON/MERCER

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT33 KNHC 231157
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
800 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

...LARGE HURRICANE BILL ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD...

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS
OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
TO POINT ACONI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO BONAVISTA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSONS POND AROUND TO STONES COVE...AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BONAVISTA TO HARBOUR DEEP.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH...FOR THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE...
AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
42.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 31 MPH...50 KM/HR...AND A
FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AS BILL MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES
OF CANADA TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. SWELLS FROM BILL ARE STILL
AFFECTING BERMUDA BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...42.4N 65.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 31 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN