Blogging About Hurricane Bill #14

WOCN31 CWHX 221200
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM ADT Saturday
22 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT

...On Sunday Bill will Nova Scotia and portions of pei...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 33.9 N
And longitude 68.6 W... About 215 nautical miles or 400 km
West northwest of Bermuda . Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 90 knots... 167 km/h... And central pressure at 960
MB. Bill is moving north at 21 knots... 39 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 22 9.00 AM 33.9N 68.6W 960 90 167
Aug 22 9.00 PM 38.0N 68.0W 963 95 176
Aug 23 9.00 AM 42.1N 65.3W 968 85 157
Aug 23 9.00 PM 46.1N 59.5W 973 70 130 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 AM 48.7N 50.0W 978 60 111 post-tropical
Aug 24 9.00 PM 50.3N 37.5W 988 45 83 post-tropical
Aug 25 9.00 AM 51.7N 27.5W 998 35 65 post-tropical
Aug 25 9.00 PM 53.3N 18.0W 999 30 56 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
Tropical storm warnings will be issued shortly for portions
Of Southwestern Nova Scotia. Hurricane watches will be issued
For portion of Northeastern Nova Scotia. Tropical storm watches
Will be issued for the remainder of Nova Scotia and eastern
Prince Edward Island and Southwestern Newfoundland.

Rainfall warnings are in effect for all of Nova Scotia and
Eastern Prince Edward Island for Sunday as the rainbands from
Bill make their way onshore and inland. Rainfall guidance shows
A wide swath of rainfall amounts in the 75 to 100 mm range for
coastal Nova Scotia with local areas nearing 150 mm. Rainfall
Amounts decrease away from the coast.

On our current track.. Rainfall amounts should be lower across New
Brunswick.The outermost rainbands of Bill are forecast to reach
Southeastern New Brunswick on Sunday and rainfall amounts could be
high but just below warning criteria. There will be
An interaction between the leading rainbands of Bill and a cold
Front approaching from the north so rainfall totals could possibly
exceed 25 millimetres for some localities in New Brunswick.
Any future northward movement of the forecast track of Bill will
require adjustments to the spatial coverage of the rainfall warnings.

Bill will affect Newfoundland Sunday night giving rain at times
Heavy and strong winds to most regions. The potential
For 100 mm of rain exists for portions of Newfoundland.
The strongest winds will reach the south coast after midnight
potentially gusting to 110 km/h on the Burin and
Avalon peninsulas overnight Sunday into early Monday. Winds in
The Wreckhouse area could possibly gust to 120 km/h Sunday
Evening.

Based on the current forecast track and intensity..
Tropical storm force winds of 65 km/h with gusts to 90 will
Affect most of Nova Scotia and portions of pei and tropical
Storm watch and warnings will be issued later today.
Later on Sunday hurricane force winds of 120 km/h with gusts to 140
are expected to affect the eastern shore and Southern Cape Breton
And hurricane watches will be issued for those regions later today.

Swell waves will continue to grow and move rapidly to the
Coast of Nova Scotia today and tonight. This will generate
Rough surf and possible life-threatening rip currents along
Some of Nova Scotia beaches. As hurricane Bill moves by the
Nova Scotia coastline on Sunday breaking wave heights could
Possibly reach 5 metres putting coastal infrastructure and
Human life at risk.

Swell heights on the coast of Newfoundland will not start to
Build until Sunday and will possibly exceed 2 metres on the
South coast by midnight Sunday as Bill approaches. The larger
Waves will arrive on the Newfoundland shores late Sunday night
Or early Monday.

Some of the highest spring tides of the year will occur this
Weekend in Atlantic Canada and these high tides combined with
The large waves and possible storm surge could cause some
Damage to coastal infrastructure. The exact timing of the high
Tides to the arrival of the hurricane will be crucial especially
For Southeastern Newfoundland and it is too early to pin those
numbers down.

Residents of and visitors to Nova Scotia are advised to exercise
extreme caution if venturing near the coastline today and Sunday
Due to the life threatening wave conditions. The same caution
Applies to residents of and visitors to Newfoundland on Sunday.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Early today hurricane force to gale force wind warnings will be
issued for the southern maritime waters. Appropriate warnings
Will be issued for the Newfoundland waters as well. Storm force
Wind warnings will be issued for the southern marine areas of
Newfoundland by the Newfoundland and Labrador weather office for
Sunday evening.

Bill is expected to enter the waters of the Maritimes as a
Hurricane early Sunday morning. The core of hurricane force winds
Is expected to move along the western slope waters Sunday
Morning passing just south of Cape Breton Sunday evening. Bill will
pass over Southeastern Newfoundland Sunday night then move
Away from the Avalon Peninsula on Monday.

Significant wave heights of up to 14 metres will move onto the
Scotian shelf on Sunday and waves of up to 10 metres will
Move onto the Southwestern Grand Banks on Monday. Waves of up to
8 metres will reach the Northern Grand Banks late on Monday.
For Atlantic coastal Nova Scotia strong surf and waves possibly
exceeding 5 to 7 metres will impact certain areas. For coastal
Newfoundland waves also may exceed 6 to 8 metres especially south
To southwest facing coastlines from the Burin Peninsula to cape
Race.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis

We continue to follow the national hurricane center lead on positions
and strength of hurricane Bill throughout the period.

Hurricane Bill passed west of Bermuda today. A weather
Station on the island reported a wind gust to 156 km/h. Bill also
passed east of buoy 41048 during the night. Peak winds at the buoy
were 54 knots and the maximum significant wave height reported
Was 8.3 metres. These two observations along with a convenient
quikscat pass were very useful in determining the wind radii tables.
We have high confidence in the table at the moment.

The satellite presentation of Bill shows an outer eyewall trying to
contract toward the centre of the storm. The opportunity for
strenghtening still exists but that window is closing.

A hurricane hunter aircraft reported maximum flight wind of 121
Knots in the ne quadrant and 103 knots in the southeastern quadrant.
They also reported that the inner eyewall has dissipated.

B. Prognostic

The just west of a due north track of Bill has continued for the
Last 6 hours. This keeps the confidence in the further offshore
Track forecast reasonable high. The model tracks remain tightly
clustered off the coast of Nova Scotia and across the southern
portions of Newfoundland.

We maintain the current intensity of Bill for the first 12 to 18
hours as Bill continues to move over warm waters in a low shear
environment. Beyond thenext 18 hours the sea surface temperatures
begin to cool quite quickly and shear should begin to take its toll.
Whether Bill is still a hurricane when its reaches the Avalon
Peninsula remains to be seen. Beyond that.. Bill should race ahead
Of the upper trough into the Atlantic with little extratropical
development.

Cyclone phase space diagrams indicate Bill will begin to undergo
extratropical transition late on the 23rd and will be completed
On the 24th.

C. Public weather

As the storm begins transitioning on Sunday we should be seeing
The rain shield extending to the left and forward of track and
The wind field starting to expand away from the storm centre.
For New Brunswick a predecessor rain band associated with
The hurricane will form today and pulses of rain associated
With it may give rain amounts exceeding 25 mm.

Although the reg Gem rain field is displaced too far to the north and
west based on our storm positions its overall rainfall amount
guidance is quite good. Both the gfs and nam have small pockets
Of 5 inches or more of qpf. Rainfall amounts over coastal Nova Scotia
appear to be on the order of 100 mm for a significant portion and
local amounts of 150 mm are not unreasonable. Rainfall amounts
diminish proportionally inland.

Rainfall will not be an issue for the island of Newfoundland until
day 2 night and will be given further consideration with the 12Z
model runs.

D. Marine weather

As Bill undergoes extratropical transition and weakens in our
Waters we maintain the gale force wind radii but shrink the
Storm force and hurricane force winds in the nw and sw quadrants
To show the switch to the right of track of the wind field.

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
22/12Z 275 210 140 190 105 105 55 80 90 40 25 30
23/00Z 260 225 145 190 105 105 60 85 85 40 25 30
23/12Z 235 235 140 160 100 105 75 75 70 50 30 40
24/00Z 210 240 180 160 90 115 75 60 45 60 45 30
24/12Z 210 240 180 160 100 75 40 45 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 210 250 180 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 210 250 180 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
26/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


End nickerson/roussel




WOCN31 CWHX 221200
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT SATURDAY
22 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

...ON SUNDAY BILL WILL NOVA SCOTIA AND PORTIONS OF PEI...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 N
AND LONGITUDE 68.6 W... ABOUT 215 NAUTICAL MILES OR 400 KM
WEST NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS... 167 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 960
MB. BILL IS MOVING NORTH AT 21 KNOTS... 39 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 22 9.00 AM 33.9N 68.6W 960 90 167
AUG 22 9.00 PM 38.0N 68.0W 963 95 176
AUG 23 9.00 AM 42.1N 65.3W 968 85 157
AUG 23 9.00 PM 46.1N 59.5W 973 70 130 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 AM 48.7N 50.0W 978 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 24 9.00 PM 50.3N 37.5W 988 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 9.00 AM 51.7N 27.5W 998 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 9.00 PM 53.3N 18.0W 999 30 56 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. HURRICANE WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED
FOR PORTION OF NORTHEASTERN NOVA SCOTIA. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA AND EASTERN
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
EASTERN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FOR SUNDAY AS THE RAINBANDS FROM
BILL MAKE THEIR WAY ONSHORE AND INLAND. RAINFALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
A WIDE SWATH OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 75 TO 100 MM RANGE FOR
COASTAL NOVA SCOTIA WITH LOCAL AREAS NEARING 150 MM. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DECREASE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

ON OUR CURRENT TRACK.. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOWER ACROSS NEW
BRUNSWICK.THE OUTERMOST RAINBANDS OF BILL ARE FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK ON SUNDAY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
HIGH BUT JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THERE WILL BE
AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LEADING RAINBANDS OF BILL AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH SO RAINFALL TOTALS COULD POSSIBLY
EXCEED 25 MILLIMETRES FOR SOME LOCALITIES IN NEW BRUNSWICK.
ANY FUTURE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK OF BILL WILL
REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL WARNINGS.

BILL WILL AFFECT NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING RAIN AT TIMES
HEAVY AND STRONG WINDS TO MOST REGIONS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR 100 MM OF RAIN EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REACH THE SOUTH COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
POTENTIALLY GUSTING TO 110 KM/H ON THE BURIN AND
AVALON PENINSULAS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. WINDS IN
THE WRECKHOUSE AREA COULD POSSIBLY GUST TO 120 KM/H SUNDAY
EVENING.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY..
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 65 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 90 WILL
AFFECT MOST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PORTIONS OF PEI AND TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.
LATER ON SUNDAY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 120 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 140
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN SHORE AND SOUTHERN CAPE BRETON
AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE REGIONS LATER TODAY.

SWELL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AND MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL GENERATE
ROUGH SURF AND POSSIBLE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG
SOME OF NOVA SCOTIA BEACHES. AS HURRICANE BILL MOVES BY THE
NOVA SCOTIA COASTLINE ON SUNDAY BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD
POSSIBLY REACH 5 METRES PUTTING COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND
HUMAN LIFE AT RISK.

SWELL HEIGHTS ON THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND WILL NOT START TO
BUILD UNTIL SUNDAY AND WILL POSSIBLY EXCEED 2 METRES ON THE
SOUTH COAST BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY AS BILL APPROACHES. THE LARGER
WAVES WILL ARRIVE ON THE NEWFOUNDLAND SHORES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY.

SOME OF THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDES OF THE YEAR WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND IN ATLANTIC CANADA AND THESE HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH
THE LARGE WAVES AND POSSIBLE STORM SURGE COULD CAUSE SOME
DAMAGE TO COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE HIGH
TIDES TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE CRUCIAL ESPECIALLY
FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN THOSE
NUMBERS DOWN.

RESIDENTS OF AND VISITORS TO NOVA SCOTIA ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE
EXTREME CAUTION IF VENTURING NEAR THE COASTLINE TODAY AND SUNDAY
DUE TO THE LIFE THREATENING WAVE CONDITIONS. THE SAME CAUTION
APPLIES TO RESIDENTS OF AND VISITORS TO NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
EARLY TODAY HURRICANE FORCE TO GALE FORCE WIND WARNINGS WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN MARITIME WATERS. APPROPRIATE WARNINGS
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS AS WELL. STORM FORCE
WIND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS OF
NEWFOUNDLAND BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE FOR
SUNDAY EVENING.

BILL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS OF THE MARITIMES AS A
HURRICANE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CORE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE WATERS SUNDAY
MORNING PASSING JUST SOUTH OF CAPE BRETON SUNDAY EVENING. BILL WILL
PASS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AVALON PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 14 METRES WILL MOVE ONTO THE
SCOTIAN SHELF ON SUNDAY AND WAVES OF UP TO 10 METRES WILL
MOVE ONTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS ON MONDAY. WAVES OF UP TO
8 METRES WILL REACH THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS LATE ON MONDAY.
FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL NOVA SCOTIA STRONG SURF AND WAVES POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 5 TO 7 METRES WILL IMPACT CERTAIN AREAS. FOR COASTAL
NEWFOUNDLAND WAVES ALSO MAY EXCEED 6 TO 8 METRES ESPECIALLY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FACING COASTLINES FROM THE BURIN PENINSULA TO CAPE
RACE.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS

WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER LEAD ON POSITIONS
AND STRENGTH OF HURRICANE BILL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

HURRICANE BILL PASSED WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY. A WEATHER
STATION ON THE ISLAND REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 156 KM/H. BILL ALSO
PASSED EAST OF BUOY 41048 DURING THE NIGHT. PEAK WINDS AT THE BUOY
WERE 54 KNOTS AND THE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT REPORTED
WAS 8.3 METRES. THESE TWO OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A CONVENIENT
QUIKSCAT PASS WERE VERY USEFUL IN DETERMINING THE WIND RADII TABLES.
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TABLE AT THE MOMENT.

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BILL SHOWS AN OUTER EYEWALL TRYING TO
CONTRACT TOWARD THE CENTRE OF THE STORM. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRENGHTENING STILL EXISTS BUT THAT WINDOW IS CLOSING.

A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT WIND OF 121
KNOTS IN THE NE QUADRANT AND 103 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THEY ALSO REPORTED THAT THE INNER EYEWALL HAS DISSIPATED.

B. PROGNOSTIC

THE JUST WEST OF A DUE NORTH TRACK OF BILL HAS CONTINUED FOR THE
LAST 6 HOURS. THIS KEEPS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FURTHER OFFSHORE
TRACK FORECAST REASONABLE HIGH. THE MODEL TRACKS REMAIN TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

WE MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF BILL FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS AS BILL CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND THENEXT 18 HOURS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO COOL QUITE QUICKLY AND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE ITS TOLL.
WHETHER BILL IS STILL A HURRICANE WHEN ITS REACHES THE AVALON
PENINSULA REMAINS TO BE SEEN. BEYOND THAT.. BILL SHOULD RACE AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE EXTRATROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT.

CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE BILL WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE ON THE 23RD AND WILL BE COMPLETED
ON THE 24TH.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

AS THE STORM BEGINS TRANSITIONING ON SUNDAY WE SHOULD BE SEEING
THE RAIN SHIELD EXTENDING TO THE LEFT AND FORWARD OF TRACK AND
THE WIND FIELD STARTING TO EXPAND AWAY FROM THE STORM CENTRE.
FOR NEW BRUNSWICK A PREDECESSOR RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HURRICANE WILL FORM TODAY AND PULSES OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH IT MAY GIVE RAIN AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 25 MM.

ALTHOUGH THE REG GEM RAIN FIELD IS DISPLACED TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AND
WEST BASED ON OUR STORM POSITIONS ITS OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNT
GUIDANCE IS QUITE GOOD. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE SMALL POCKETS
OF 5 INCHES OR MORE OF QPF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER COASTAL NOVA SCOTIA
APPEAR TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 100 MM FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION AND
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 150 MM ARE NOT UNREASONABLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DIMINISH PROPORTIONALLY INLAND.

RAINFALL WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE ISLAND OF NEWFOUNDLAND UNTIL
DAY 2 NIGHT AND WILL BE GIVEN FURTHER CONSIDERATION WITH THE 12Z
MODEL RUNS.

D. MARINE WEATHER

AS BILL UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND WEAKENS IN OUR
WATERS WE MAINTAIN THE GALE FORCE WIND RADII BUT SHRINK THE
STORM FORCE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN THE NW AND SW QUADRANTS
TO SHOW THE SWITCH TO THE RIGHT OF TRACK OF THE WIND FIELD.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
22/12Z 275 210 140 190 105 105 55 80 90 40 25 30
23/00Z 260 225 145 190 105 105 60 85 85 40 25 30
23/12Z 235 235 140 160 100 105 75 75 70 50 30 40
24/00Z 210 240 180 160 90 115 75 60 45 60 45 30
24/12Z 210 240 180 160 100 75 40 45 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 210 250 180 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 210 250 180 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
26/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END NICKERSON/ROUSSEL

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT33 KNHC 221132
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
800 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

...BILL MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...
380 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 410 MILES...660 KM...
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT
510 MILES...820 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE
BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY OR
TONIGHT AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY WEAKENING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF BILL MOVES NORTH
OF THE GULF STREAM.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. BERMUDA IS STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
AROUND 40 MPH...64 KM/HR...AT THIS TIME.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS INDICATED THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG
THE COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA...AND BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...34.0N 68.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 22 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA