Blogging About Hurricane Bill #8

WOCN31 CWHX 210000
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 PM ADT Thursday
20 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 AM ADT

...Hurricane Bill expected to impact Atlantic Canada on Sunday...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 24.4 N
And longitude 63.9 W... About 375 nautical miles or 690 km
North northeast of San Juan. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 110 knots... 204 km/h... And central pressure at
948 MB. Bill is moving northwest at 16 knots... 30 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 20 9.00 PM 24.4N 63.9W 948 110 204
Aug 21 9.00 AM 26.9N 65.9W 950 115 213
Aug 21 9.00 PM 29.6N 67.6W 948 115 213
Aug 22 9.00 AM 33.0N 68.7W 949 115 213
Aug 22 9.00 PM 36.8N 68.4W 955 110 204
Aug 23 9.00 AM 41.2N 66.5W 965 100 185 transitioning
Aug 23 9.00 PM 44.8N 61.5W 977 85 157 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 AM 47.9N 53.7W 987 70 130 post-tropical
Aug 24 9.00 PM 50.8N 43.2W 993 60 111 post-tropical
Aug 25 9.00 AM 54.2N 29.5W 995 50 93 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
At this point it is too early for warnings to be issued as Bill
remains well to our south.

Swell from hurricane Bill will arrive along the Atlantic coast
Of Nova Scotia early Friday. By Saturday approaching swell heights
near 2 m will generate rough surf and hazardous rip currents along
some beaches. Breaking wave heights on the shoreline are expected
To be from 2 to 3 m (7 to 10 feet) along the Atlantic coast of
Nova Scotia on Saturday. Residents are advised to exercise caution
where large waves break onshore.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Given the current CHC track hurricane Bill is expected to impact
maritime marine areas later this weekend, however it is too early
To issue warnings.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis
Currently following nhc. Late this afternoon hurricane Bill has
Shown signs of deepening, with the eye becoming more symmetric on
conventional satellite imagery, and is near category 4 status on
The saffir-Simpson scale once again.

B. Prognostic
Following nhc on intensity.

Bill is tracking northwestward north of the leeward islands and
Is expected to continue on this path for the next day or two. After
that a deep-layer trough is forecast to move over the eastern
United States while an upper-level ridge builds over the Atlantic.
These two features will steer Bill northward and eventually
northeastward later in the forecast period. Track guidance is
Tightly clustered for the first couple of days but then becomes
divergent on both direction and speed later in the forecast period.

Cyclone phase space diagrams indicate Bill will begin to undergo
extra-tropical transition on the 23rd and will be completed early
On the 24th.

C. Public weather
Nothing to say at this point.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
21/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 40
23/00Z 210 185 110 175 105 95 60 90 75 55 30 30
23/12Z 225 210 130 160 115 110 70 80 70 60 30 30
24/00Z 225 225 140 130 125 125 85 65 60 60 15 15
24/12Z 235 235 150 120 140 140 90 60 30 30 0 0
25/00Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0

End hatt/March/bowyer




WOCN31 CWHX 210000
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT THURSDAY
20 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

...HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 N
AND LONGITUDE 63.9 W... ABOUT 375 NAUTICAL MILES OR 690 KM
NORTH NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS... 204 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
948 MB. BILL IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 20 9.00 PM 24.4N 63.9W 948 110 204
AUG 21 9.00 AM 26.9N 65.9W 950 115 213
AUG 21 9.00 PM 29.6N 67.6W 948 115 213
AUG 22 9.00 AM 33.0N 68.7W 949 115 213
AUG 22 9.00 PM 36.8N 68.4W 955 110 204
AUG 23 9.00 AM 41.2N 66.5W 965 100 185 TRANSITIONING
AUG 23 9.00 PM 44.8N 61.5W 977 85 157 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 AM 47.9N 53.7W 987 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 24 9.00 PM 50.8N 43.2W 993 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 9.00 AM 54.2N 29.5W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AS BILL
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

SWELL FROM HURRICANE BILL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY APPROACHING SWELL HEIGHTS
NEAR 2 M WILL GENERATE ROUGH SURF AND HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG
SOME BEACHES. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE SHORELINE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE FROM 2 TO 3 M (7 TO 10 FEET) ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
WHERE LARGE WAVES BREAK ONSHORE.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GIVEN THE CURRENT CHC TRACK HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MARITIME MARINE AREAS LATER THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE WARNINGS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY FOLLOWING NHC. LATE THIS AFTERNOON HURRICANE BILL HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF DEEPENING, WITH THE EYE BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC ON
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND IS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STATUS ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE ONCE AGAIN.

B. PROGNOSTIC
FOLLOWING NHC ON INTENSITY.

BILL IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL STEER BILL NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THEN BECOMES
DIVERGENT ON BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE BILL WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ON THE 23RD AND WILL BE COMPLETED EARLY
ON THE 24TH.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NOTHING TO SAY AT THIS POINT.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
21/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 40
23/00Z 210 185 110 175 105 95 60 90 75 55 30 30
23/12Z 225 210 130 160 115 110 70 80 70 60 30 30
24/00Z 225 225 140 130 125 125 85 65 60 60 15 15
24/12Z 235 235 150 120 140 140 90 60 30 30 0 0
25/00Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0

END HATT/MARCH/BOWYER



WOCN31 CWHX 201800 CCA
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Thursday
20 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT

Correction to initial position and pressure.

...Hurricane Bill expected to impact Atlantic Canada on Sunday...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 23.2 N
And longitude 62.6 W... About 310 nautical miles or 575 km
North of st maarteen. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 105
Knots... 194 km/h... And central pressure at 951 MB. Bill is moving
Northwest at 16 knots... 30 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

The latest track of hurricane Bill has the storm moving slightly
southeast of the previous position over Newfoundland. However
Given the fact track errors are somewhat large beyond day three
One should not focus on the exact path.

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 20 3.00 PM 23.2N 62.6W 951 105 194
Aug 21 3.00 AM 25.5N 65.0W 952 110 204
Aug 21 3.00 PM 28.2N 66.8W 948 115 213
Aug 22 3.00 AM 31.1N 68.4W 948 115 213
Aug 22 3.00 PM 34.8N 68.9W 950 115 213
Aug 23 3.00 AM 38.8N 67.9W 959 105 194 transitioning
Aug 23 3.00 PM 43.1N 64.7W 971 90 167 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 AM 46.5N 58.3W 982 75 139 transitioning
Aug 24 3.00 PM 49.3N 49.1W 991 60 111 post-tropical
Aug 25 3.00 AM 52.2N 37.2W 994 55 102 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
At this point it is too early for warnings to be issued as Bill
remains well to our south.

Swell from hurricane Bill will arrive along the Atlantic coast
Of Nova Scotia early Friday. By Saturday approaching swell heights
near 2 m will generate rough surf and hazardous rip currents along
some beaches. Breaking wave heights on the shoreline are expected
To be from 2 to 3 m (7 to 10 feet) along the Atlantic coast of
Nova Scotia on Saturday. Residents are advised to exercise caution
where large waves break onshore.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Given the current CHC track hurricane Bill is expected to impact
maritime marine areas later this weekend, however it is too early
To issue warnings.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis
Currently following nhc.

B. Prognostic
Following nhc on both track and intensity.

Bill is tracking northwestward north of the leeward islands and
Is expected to continue on this path for the next day or two. After
that a deep-layer trough is forecast to move over the eastern
United States while an upper-level ridge builds over the Atlantic.
These two features will steer Bill northward and eventually
northeastward later in the forecast period. Track guidance is
Tightly clustered for the first couple of days but then becomes
divergent on both direction and speed later in the forecast period.

Cyclone phase space diagrams indicate Bill will begin to undergo
extra-tropical transition on the 23rd and will be completed early
On the 24th.

C. Public weather
Nothing to say at this point.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
20/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 50 30 35
23/06Z 225 200 125 175 110 105 65 90 75 60 30 30
23/18Z 225 225 135 145 120 120 80 75 65 60 30 30
24/06Z 230 230 150 120 135 135 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/18Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0

End March/bowyer




WOCN31 CWHX 201800 CCA
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT THURSDAY
20 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

CORRECTION TO INITIAL POSITION AND PRESSURE.

...HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 N
AND LONGITUDE 62.6 W... ABOUT 310 NAUTICAL MILES OR 575 KM
NORTH OF ST MAARTEEN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 105
KNOTS... 194 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 951 MB. BILL IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

THE LATEST TRACK OF HURRICANE BILL HAS THE STORM MOVING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE FACT TRACK ERRORS ARE SOMEWHAT LARGE BEYOND DAY THREE
ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT PATH.

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 20 3.00 PM 23.2N 62.6W 951 105 194
AUG 21 3.00 AM 25.5N 65.0W 952 110 204
AUG 21 3.00 PM 28.2N 66.8W 948 115 213
AUG 22 3.00 AM 31.1N 68.4W 948 115 213
AUG 22 3.00 PM 34.8N 68.9W 950 115 213
AUG 23 3.00 AM 38.8N 67.9W 959 105 194 TRANSITIONING
AUG 23 3.00 PM 43.1N 64.7W 971 90 167 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 3.00 AM 46.5N 58.3W 982 75 139 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 3.00 PM 49.3N 49.1W 991 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 3.00 AM 52.2N 37.2W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AS BILL
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

SWELL FROM HURRICANE BILL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY APPROACHING SWELL HEIGHTS
NEAR 2 M WILL GENERATE ROUGH SURF AND HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG
SOME BEACHES. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE SHORELINE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE FROM 2 TO 3 M (7 TO 10 FEET) ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
WHERE LARGE WAVES BREAK ONSHORE.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GIVEN THE CURRENT CHC TRACK HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MARITIME MARINE AREAS LATER THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE WARNINGS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY FOLLOWING NHC.

B. PROGNOSTIC
FOLLOWING NHC ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

BILL IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL STEER BILL NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THEN BECOMES
DIVERGENT ON BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE BILL WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ON THE 23RD AND WILL BE COMPLETED EARLY
ON THE 24TH.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NOTHING TO SAY AT THIS POINT.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
20/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/06Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/18Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 50 30 35
23/06Z 225 200 125 175 110 105 65 90 75 60 30 30
23/18Z 225 225 135 145 120 120 80 75 65 60 30 30
24/06Z 230 230 150 120 135 135 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/18Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0

END MARCH/BOWYER



WOCN31 CWHX 201200
Hurricane Bill information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM ADT Thursday
20 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT

...Hurricane Bill expected to impact Atlantic Canada on Sunday...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude 22.3 N
And longitude 61.3 W... About 275 nautical miles or 505 km
North northeast of st maarteen. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 115 knots... 213 km/h... And central pressure at 948
MB. Bill is moving northwest at 16 knots... 30 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Aug 20 9.00 AM 22.3N 61.3W 948 115 213
Aug 20 9.00 PM 24.0N 63.5W 942 120 222
Aug 21 9.00 AM 26.5N 65.7W 942 120 222
Aug 21 9.00 PM 29.4N 67.4W 942 120 222
Aug 22 9.00 AM 33.0N 68.0W 948 115 213
Aug 22 9.00 PM 36.6N 68.2W 952 110 204
Aug 23 9.00 AM 41.3N 66.3W 965 95 176 transitioning
Aug 23 9.00 PM 44.5N 62.2W 976 80 148 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 AM 49.2N 54.7W 987 65 120 transitioning
Aug 24 9.00 PM 52.0N 43.9W 994 55 102 post-tropical
Aug 25 9.00 AM 55.4N 25.8W 994 55 102 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
At this point it is too early for warnings to be issued as Bill
remains well to our south.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Given the current CHC track hurricane Bill is expected to impact
maritime marine areas later this weekend, however it is too early
To issue warnings.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

A. Analysis
Currently following nhc.

B. Prognostic
Following nhc on both track and intensity.

Bill is tracking northwestward north of the leeward islands and
Is expected to continue on this path for the next day or two. After
that a deep-layer trough is forecast to move over the eastern
United States while an upper-level ridge builds over the Atlantic.
These two features will steer Bill northward and eventually
northeastward later in the forecast period. Track guidance is
Tightly clustered for the first 2 to 3 days but then becomes
divergent on both direction and speed.

Early cyclone phase space diagrams indicate Bill will begin to
undergo extra-tropical transition on the 23rd and will be completed
early on the 24th.

C. Public weather
Nothing to say at this point.

D. Marine weather

Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
20/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
23/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 60 30 30
23/12Z 225 225 120 175 120 120 70 90 75 60 30 30
24/00Z 225 225 150 120 120 120 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 60 60 0 0
25/00Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0


End March/bowyer




WOCN31 CWHX 201200
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT THURSDAY
20 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

...HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 N
AND LONGITUDE 61.3 W... ABOUT 275 NAUTICAL MILES OR 505 KM
NORTH NORTHEAST OF ST MAARTEEN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS... 213 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 948
MB. BILL IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 20 9.00 AM 22.3N 61.3W 948 115 213
AUG 20 9.00 PM 24.0N 63.5W 942 120 222
AUG 21 9.00 AM 26.5N 65.7W 942 120 222
AUG 21 9.00 PM 29.4N 67.4W 942 120 222
AUG 22 9.00 AM 33.0N 68.0W 948 115 213
AUG 22 9.00 PM 36.6N 68.2W 952 110 204
AUG 23 9.00 AM 41.3N 66.3W 965 95 176 TRANSITIONING
AUG 23 9.00 PM 44.5N 62.2W 976 80 148 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 AM 49.2N 54.7W 987 65 120 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 PM 52.0N 43.9W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 9.00 AM 55.4N 25.8W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AS BILL
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GIVEN THE CURRENT CHC TRACK HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MARITIME MARINE AREAS LATER THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE WARNINGS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY FOLLOWING NHC.

B. PROGNOSTIC
FOLLOWING NHC ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

BILL IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL STEER BILL NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS BUT THEN BECOMES
DIVERGENT ON BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED.

EARLY CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE BILL WILL BEGIN TO
UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ON THE 23RD AND WILL BE COMPLETED
EARLY ON THE 24TH.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NOTHING TO SAY AT THIS POINT.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
20/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
23/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 60 30 30
23/12Z 225 225 120 175 120 120 70 90 75 60 30 30
24/00Z 225 225 150 120 120 120 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 60 60 0 0
25/00Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0


END MARCH/BOWYER

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT33 KNHC 202344
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
800 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009

...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE BILL CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST OR ABOUT 550 MILES...
885 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1020 MILES...1640 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND BILL COULD REGAIN CATEGORY
FOUR STRENGTH TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND ITS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND
THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.4N 63.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH