Tropical Storm Danny #1

WOCN31 CWHX 261800
Information statement issued by the canadian hurricane
Centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Wednesday
26 August 2009.

Tropical storm Danny preliminary discussion:

Tropical storm Danny has formed north of the Bahamas and is
Expected to develop into a category 1 hurricane by the weekend
As it moves northwestward toward the Southeastern U.S. the storm
Is in its early stages of development and there remains a very
Large degree of uncertainty in both track and intensity. Much
Of that uncertainty is attributable to the fact that Danny is
Still in its development stage. Computer models are indicating
That the storm could become a weak hurricane (about a 40% chance
Of that) then accelerate toward the northwest then northeast.
Danny would likely undergo transition to a post-tropical storm
As it moves north toward the U.S. or Eastern Canada. The
Atmospheric environment around the storm only supports gradual
strengthening over a 2 to 3-day period before either making
Landfall in the us or accelerating toward the Maritimes.

The first official forecast of Danny from the national hurricane
centre in Miami indicates a post-tropical storm with possible
hurricane-force winds approaching the Maritimes late Saturday
night/early Sunday. That is just an early forecast containing
Much uncertainty with only a 5-10% chance of hurricane force
Winds affecting the Maritimes at this stage. Complete bulletins
From the canadian hurricane centre are scheduled to begin
At 9 AM ADT on Thursday.


End campbell/fogarty




WOCN31 CWHX 261800
INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE
CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT WEDNESDAY
26 AUGUST 2009.

TROPICAL STORM DANNY PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION:

TROPICAL STORM DANNY HAS FORMED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE STORM
IS IN ITS EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT AND THERE REMAINS A VERY
LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. MUCH
OF THAT UNCERTAINTY IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE FACT THAT DANNY IS
STILL IN ITS DEVELOPMENT STAGE. COMPUTER MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THE STORM COULD BECOME A WEAK HURRICANE (ABOUT A 40% CHANCE
OF THAT) THEN ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST.
DANNY WOULD LIKELY UNDERGO TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM
AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE U.S. OR EASTERN CANADA. THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE STORM ONLY SUPPORTS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OVER A 2 TO 3-DAY PERIOD BEFORE EITHER MAKING
LANDFALL IN THE US OR ACCELERATING TOWARD THE MARITIMES.

THE FIRST OFFICIAL FORECAST OF DANNY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTRE IN MIAMI INDICATES A POST-TROPICAL STORM WITH POSSIBLE
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS APPROACHING THE MARITIMES LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THAT IS JUST AN EARLY FORECAST CONTAINING
MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH ONLY A 5-10% CHANCE OF HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS AFFECTING THE MARITIMES AT THIS STAGE. COMPLETE BULLETINS
FROM THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE ARE SCHEDULED TO BEGIN
AT 9 AM ADT ON THURSDAY.


END CAMPBELL/FOGARTY