Hurricane Bill Makes Landfall in Newfoundland as a Category One

WOCN31 CWHX 240300 CCA
Tropical storm Bill intermediate information statement issued
By the canadian hurricane centre of Environment Canada at
12.30 midnight NDT Sunday 23 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 3.30 AM NDT

At 12.30 AM NDT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude
47.1 N and longitude 55.5 W. Bill is now on the Burin
Peninsula as Winterland shows winds veering rapidly to the
Southerly quadrants.

Bill is accelerating east northeastward at 40 knots... 74 km/h.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 65 knots... 120 km/h and
central pressure at 975 MB.

Sateliite showing signature swirl of circulation centre which
Is tilted forward from the surface centre.

The fact that Bill.. As a marginal hurricane of 65 knots..
Is moving through cold water indicates that its status will
Be shortly downgraded to a tropical storm. Quickscat and an
examination of wind obs as of late show a good area of
Storm force winds but none of hurrican3e strength. However..
We fell it is prudent for us to keep Bill as a hurricane for this
issue as it approaches and moves through the Burin Peninsula.

A post analysis in the future will determine whether Bill made
Land fall as a marginal cat 1 hurricane or as a tropical storm.

The storm and hurricane force winds and large waves in the
Southern quadrant of hurricane Bill are forecast to spread into
The eastern marine district of the Maritimes early this evening
And to the waters of Southeastern Newfoundland tonight. The envelope
of high seas carried with hurricane Bill will strike coastal regions
of Newfoundland facing the brunt of Bill. A storm surge warning is
In effect for the southeasternmost portions of Newfoundland as the
centre of Bill is expected to track across land there.

A storm surge warning is maintained for the area around
Placentia Bay and the Burin Peninsula in Newfoundland as the
Large waves combine with storm surge from Bill continue raise
Water levels 50 to possibly 90 centimetres above high tide
Shortly.

Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts
And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada.

End March/campbell




WOCN31 CWHX 240300 CCA
TROPICAL STORM BILL INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED
BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT
12.30 MIDNIGHT NDT SUNDAY 23 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 AM NDT

AT 12.30 AM NDT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
47.1 N AND LONGITUDE 55.5 W. BILL IS NOW ON THE BURIN
PENINSULA AS WINTERLAND SHOWS WINDS VEERING RAPIDLY TO THE
SOUTHERLY QUADRANTS.

BILL IS ACCELERATING EAST NORTHEASTWARD AT 40 KNOTS... 74 KM/H.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H AND
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 975 MB.

SATELIITE SHOWING SIGNATURE SWIRL OF CIRCULATION CENTRE WHICH
IS TILTED FORWARD FROM THE SURFACE CENTRE.

THE FACT THAT BILL.. AS A MARGINAL HURRICANE OF 65 KNOTS..
IS MOVING THROUGH COLD WATER INDICATES THAT ITS STATUS WILL
BE SHORTLY DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. QUICKSCAT AND AN
EXAMINATION OF WIND OBS AS OF LATE SHOW A GOOD AREA OF
STORM FORCE WINDS BUT NONE OF HURRICAN3E STRENGTH. HOWEVER..
WE FELL IT IS PRUDENT FOR US TO KEEP BILL AS A HURRICANE FOR THIS
ISSUE AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE BURIN PENINSULA.

A POST ANALYSIS IN THE FUTURE WILL DETERMINE WHETHER BILL MADE
LAND FALL AS A MARGINAL CAT 1 HURRICANE OR AS A TROPICAL STORM.

THE STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND LARGE WAVES IN THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF HURRICANE BILL ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO
THE EASTERN MARINE DISTRICT OF THE MARITIMES EARLY THIS EVENING
AND TO THE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT. THE ENVELOPE
OF HIGH SEAS CARRIED WITH HURRICANE BILL WILL STRIKE COASTAL REGIONS
OF NEWFOUNDLAND FACING THE BRUNT OF BILL. A STORM SURGE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE
CENTRE OF BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS LAND THERE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS MAINTAINED FOR THE AREA AROUND
PLACENTIA BAY AND THE BURIN PENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE
LARGE WAVES COMBINE WITH STORM SURGE FROM BILL CONTINUE RAISE
WATER LEVELS 50 TO POSSIBLY 90 CENTIMETRES ABOVE HIGH TIDE
SHORTLY.

PUBLIC AND MARINE INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THEIR REGION BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

END MARCH/CAMPBELL

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000
WTNT33 KNHC 240232
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

...BILL APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE
EDWARD ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NEWFOUNDLAND FROM
BURGEO EASTWARD AROUND THE AVALON PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD TO FOGO
ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND
TO BURGEO ON THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST AND FROM FOGO ISLAND TO
HARBOUR DEEP ON THE NORTHEAST COAST.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 47.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...
190 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BILL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA OVERNIGHT.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...47.1N 55.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 40 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 240234
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

BILL STILL HAS STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A FRAGMENT OF AN EYEWALL
VISIBLE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 2304 UTC SSMIS PASS. BASED ON
THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE...AND A DVORAK CI NUMBER OF 4.0 FROM TAFB
AT 0000 UTC...BILL IS MAINTAINED AS A 65 KT HURRICANE FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

BILL HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/35. BILL IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD HEADING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
AFTER 48 HOURS...BILL WILL SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS
IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF ICELAND. BILL WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO
THIS LARGER CIRCULATION BY 96 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

BILL IS BEGINNING TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER IN
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-KT UPPER-LEVEL JET CORE CENTERED ALONG
55N. ALSO...DATA FROM A 2226 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG WITH NUMEROUS
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELD OF BILL HAS BEGUN TO
EXPAND...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT BILL WILL COMPLETE THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL HELP
MAINTAIN BILL AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING AS BILL MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC. AS BILL BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL...THE WIND
FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL CONTINUE
IMPACTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...
WHILE SWELLS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 47.1N 55.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 49.1N 47.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 50.8N 36.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/1200Z 52.2N 24.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 26/0000Z 53.5N 14.7W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 27/0000Z 61.0N 2.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN