New Years' Snowstorm Update 14

000
FXUS61 KCAR 032002
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
302 PM EST SUN JAN 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA TONIGHT THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE MARITIMES MONDAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING MOISTURE WHICH IN TURN WILL GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THIS
EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN FREQUENCY
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF NAM AND GFS TO INITIALIZE THE POP AND QPF GRIDS. WILL
ADJUST POPS HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WHERE A
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EARLY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MARITIME
AIR MASS INTO MONDAY. HAVE USED THE GMOS FOR TEMPERATURE...DEW
POINT AND WIND.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW
BACK TOWARDS JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD CROSSING NORTHERN SECTIONS MONDAY EVENING, THEN ACROSS
CENTRAL SECTIONS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND FINALLY OVER DOWNEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO LABRADOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE REGION UNDER A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW. USED A BLEND OF THE MET
AND MAV FOR TEMPERATURES-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD START OUT MOSTLY QUIET. THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AND PRECIP FREE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A STRAY SNOW
SHOWER FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. AREAS DOWNEAST SHOULD HAVE THE MOST CLEARING ON THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER STORM COULD BE ON THE HORIZON
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE MOMENT THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE AND BRINGS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST...HOWEVER
THE ECMWF AND THE GEM HAVE THE STORM WELL OFF THE COAST. THIS STORM
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW
HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE DOWNEAST AREAS FOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY. FOLLOWING THAT SYSTEM LOOK FOR SOME COLD WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY. USED GMOS FOR TEMPERATURES AND ADJUSTED AS NEEDED.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AND SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION.

LONG TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
DECREASING TO MVFR LATE ON FRIDAY-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --NEAR TERM: WINDS CURRENTLY HAVE DECREASE DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVE TO THE EAST ALLOWING
THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40
FOR WINDS. FOR WAVES: SPECTRAL DATA INDICATES VERY LITTLE INCOMING
LONG PERIOD WAVE. WILL USE THE NAM/SWAN FOR WAVES. WILL KEEP THE
SCA IN PLACE.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...FOSTER
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...MIGNONE
MARINE...MIGNONE/FOSTER