Major (Category 4) Hurricane Earl Effecting the Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico Update 5

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010
 
THE INTENSITY OF EARL APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF FOR THE TIME
BEING.  DROPSONDE MEASUREMENTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTERS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  THERE WAS ALSO AN UNFLAGGED SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WIND
OF 111 KT.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN SUGGEST THAT A
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL OR CONVECTIVE RING MAY BE FORMING.  THIS WOULD
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO CUT OFF FROM THE TROUGH AND MOVE SOUTHWARD...WHICH IS AN
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION THAT IS USUALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER THE GFS PREDICTS AROUND 18-20 KT OF
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER EARL IN 24-48 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BACKED OFF SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
ALSO...SOME OSCILLATIONS IN INTENSIYY DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS
OR OTHER INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE PROCESSES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
 
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OF EARL BUT THE MEAN
MOTION HAS BEEN ABOUT 300/12 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS EARL MOVES
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  BY DAY
3...A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED AS THE HURRICANE MOVES
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.  A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE AN EASTWARD
COMPONENT OF STEERING BY DAY 4...AND EARL IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.   THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN RATHER CLOSE
AGREEMENT UP TO 72 HOURS...BUT BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT AFTER THAT
FORECAST TIME.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS...ONCE AGAIN...
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.  THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW CLOSE THE HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0300Z 19.9N  65.8W   115 KT
 12HR VT     31/1200Z 20.9N  67.2W   120 KT
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 22.6N  69.2W   120 KT
 36HR VT     01/1200Z 24.6N  71.4W   120 KT
 48HR VT     02/0000Z 26.9N  73.4W   120 KT
 72HR VT     03/0000Z 32.5N  75.0W   110 KT
 96HR VT     04/0000Z 38.5N  70.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     05/0000Z 46.0N  62.0W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
1100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010
 
...EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 65.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.  THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...AND PASS EAST
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT.  STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN
PUERTO RICO.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PUERTO RICO WILL BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE EARLY TUESDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
 
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...100 AM AST AND 300 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN