Major (Category 3) Hurricane Effecting the East Coast of the U.S.A Update 6

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HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
 
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS WEAKENED A
LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ROSE TO 947
MB...AND A BLEND OF THE SFMR MEASUREMENTS AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS. EARL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
A COLDER OCEAN.  AFTER CROSSING CANADA IN 48 HOURS...EARL SHOULD
BECOME POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT IS
ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW...AS ANTICIPATED...THAT EARL
HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS MOVING 360 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE
STEERING PATTERN CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF EARL...AND THE
CONSISTENCY IN TRACK GUIDANCE...HAVE BEEN ADEQUATELY DESCRIBED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. EARL IS ABOUT TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND IT IS READY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. 

ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE HAVE DECREASED...EARL
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 32.5N  75.2W   100 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 34.8N  74.8W    95 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 38.0N  72.7W    85 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 41.7N  69.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 46.5N  64.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
 
...LARGE HURRICANE EARL MOVING NORTHWARD...RAINBANDS AND GUSTY WINDS
ALREADY APPROACHING THE OUTER BANKS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 75.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET
TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT
JEFFERSON HARBOR
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR BUT A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SOON.  EVEN IF THE CENTER OF
EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
IN THE OUTER BANKS BY TONIGHT.  TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS ON
FRIDAY.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. 
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...THE OUTER BANKS AND OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. 
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AS WELL
AS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE.
 
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY.  THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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 Watches

Yarmouth County
2:48 PM ADT Thursday 02 September 2010
Hurricane watch for
Yarmouth County issued

Hurricane Earl is moving northward toward the Maritimes. Maximum wind gusts could reach 130 km/h over the above regions beginning early Saturday morning.

A hurricane watch means that a hurricane or an incipient hurricane condition poses a possible threat to the specified areas within 36 to 48 hours.

At noon Thursday the centre of hurricane Earl was located near 485 km south of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and moving northward at 30 km/h. On its current track Earl is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of Western Nova Scotia to the Fundy coast of New Brunswick early Saturday morning.

Strong winds...Gusting up to 130 km/h or perhaps higher are possible for southwestern counties of Nova Scotia early Saturday morning. Elsewhere along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia...Up as far as the eastern shore...And the Bay of Fundy maximum wind gusts could reach 90 km/h.

Heavy rain...Amounting to 40 to 70 millimetres could fall over the Maritimes on Saturday as Earl tracks across the region.

Please refer to the latest Environment Canada forecasts for updated information.

Yarmouth County
10:40 AM ADT THURSDAY 02 SEPTEMBER 2010
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
Yarmouth County CONTINUED

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.

Watches

Saint John and County
2:33 PM ADT Thursday 02 September 2010
Tropical storm watch for
Saint John and County issued

Hurricane Earl is moving northward toward the Maritimes. Maximum wind gusts could reach 90 km/h over the above regions beginning Saturday morning. A tropical storm watch means that a tropical storm or an incipient tropical storm condition poses a possible threat to the specified areas within 36 hours to 48 hours.

At noon Thursday the centre of hurricane Earl was located near 485 kilometres south of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and moving northward at 30 km/h. On its current track Earl is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of Western Nova Scotia to the Fundy coast of New Brunswick early Saturday morning.

Strong winds in the Bay of Fundy could give maximum wind gusts to 90 km/h on Saturday.

Heavy rain...Amounting to 40 to 70 millimetres could fall over the Maritimes on Saturday as Earl tracks across the region.