Major (Category 3) Hurricane now heading towards the East Coast of the U.S.A Update 1

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HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
 

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW THAT EARL HAS A DISTINCT
EYE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. A BLEND BETWEEN
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE SUGGEST THAT WINDS ARE STILL 110 KNOTS.  GIVEN THE CURRENT
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...WHICH SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE SHEAR SINCE
YESTERDAY AND THE WARM OCEAN ALONG THE TRACK OF EARL...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE HURRICANE COULD REGAIN SOME INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL MODEL 
SHOWS A STEADY STATE OR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND THIS TREND IS FOLLOWED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTER
48 HOURS...EARL SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND
ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR RESULTING IN WEAKENING. BY DAY 5 THE
HURRICANE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE WELL NORTH OF CANADA.      

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE
INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN STEERING EARL TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS ALREADY SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LATER TODAY...EARL
SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE TURNING GRADUALLY
NORTHWARD. IN 36 HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE
BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE
SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS...WHICH HAVE EARL
PASSING TO THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION
TO THE TRACK TO THE WEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE 
TO THE COAST.

GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE LARGE WIND RADII ASSOCIATED WITH A
EARL...A HURRICANE WARNING WAS REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 25.1N  72.1W   110 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 27.0N  73.7W   110 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 29.8N  75.0W   110 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 32.8N  75.2W   110 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 36.0N  73.6W   100 KT
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 44.0N  66.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 55.0N  60.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
 
...LARGE HURRICANE EARL THREATENS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 72.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ENE OF SAN SALVADOR
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
 
THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AND NOW EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF
BOGUE INLET.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM NEW JERSEY TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE
THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. 

EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...MAINLY IN GUSTS OVER
SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
 
SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL SHOULD AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY.  THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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