Hurricane Irene A Potentially Historic Storm No.4

000
WTNT34 KNHC 280256
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...IRENE DRENCHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH HEAVY RAINS AS IT

...........SKIRTS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT.000


REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED
OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA ROUGHLY 125 MILES...205 KM...TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND A WIND GUST TO 52 MPH WAS REPORTED AS
FAR NORTH AS THE PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 5 FEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT OREGON
INLET NORTH CAROLINA...AND A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4 FEET
HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE
PRELIMINARY WATER LEVEL AT THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL HAS
RECENTLY PEAKED NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL THAT WAS ESTABLISHED DURING
HURRICANE ISABEL IN 2003.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT THUS FAR OF 14.00 INCHES REPORTED
AT BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.FXUS61 KCAR 280230


AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1030 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --IRENE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT THEN TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY THEN WELL
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --UPDATE: KEPT ISOLATED TSTMS IN CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND RUC SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. BIGGER
CONCERN IS WHAT WILL IRENE DO OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS. LATEST
ADVISORY FROM NHC HAS HRCN IRENE AT 75 MPH AT INITIAL POSITION AND
CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH. SEE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR

FURTHER DETAILS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE REACHING DOWNEAST
AREAS LATE TNGT...WHERE WEAK FRONTOGENESIS LCLY ENHANCING A RAIN
BAND OVR DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY SUN
DAYBREAK...SPCLY IF THE LATEST NAM12 VERIFIES. OTHERWISE...THE
LEADING EDGE OF RNFL GRADUALLY WORKS INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN
MORN AND THEN SPREADS N OF THE ST JOHN VLY BY SUN AFTN. RN WILL BE
HVY ATTMS SPCLY SUN AFTN INTO SUN NGT WITH THE MAIN TROP MOISTURE
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE. MODELS THEN INDICATE DRY SLOTTING
COMING ARND FROM THE SW SIDE OF IRENE... TAPERING RNFL TO SHWRS
ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE FA LATE SUN NGT INTO ERL MON MORN. TROP
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REACH DOWNEAST AREAS FIRST BY LATE SUN AFTN
AND EXIT ERLY MON MORN. NRN AREAS WILL INITIALLY EXPERIENCE TROP
STORM FORCE WINDS OVRNGT SUN CONTG INTO MON MORN BEFORE COMPLETELY

EXITING THE FA BY MON AFTN.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IRENE IS EXPECT TO MOVE TO A POSITION OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW
ENGLAND MID DAY SUNDAY. THE STORM WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHWEST MAINE LATER
IN THE EVENING. IRENE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CANADA MONDAY
MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND OVER INLAND NEW ENGLAND WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL WITH STRENGTH
OF IRENE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS TO 60
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND
POWER OUTAGES. HAVE BLENDED THE TCM WIND TOOL WITH THE GFS TO
INITIALIZE THE WIND GRIDS. WILL DO MANUAL EDITING FOR SMOOTHING
AND TO BRING SUSTAINED WIND AND GUSTS INTO TOLERANCE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICE.