Major (Category 3) Hurricane Ophelia and The Extratropical Cyclone Update Two

Avalon Peninsula South
10:47 AM NDT Sunday 02 October 2011
Rainfall warning for
Avalon Peninsula South continued

Rain at times heavy associated with Ophelia is expected to develop overnight with up to 60 millimeters expected by Monday afternoon.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

Hurricane Ophelia is forecast to transition to a post-tropical storm as it tracks south of the Avalon Peninsula early Monday morning. Ophelia will then cross the Northern Grand Banks and move out to sea Monday afternoon. This system is expected to give rain at times heavy to eastern and Southern Newfoundland starting overnight tonight with accumulations of up to 60 millimeters expected by Monday afternoon. Given the close range of hurricane Ophelia's track to the Avalon Peninsula Monday morning, a tropical storm watch has been issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre for that region. This means that there is a possibility of tropical storm force winds (60 gusting to 90 km/h) from Ophelia.

Additionally, large waves and pounding surf are expected to impact the South Coast of Newfoundland with this system with the largest waves arriving near noon Monday.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 021146
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  39A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
800 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

...OPHELIA TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
....AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

WOCN31 CWHX 021145
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 8:57 AM ADT Sunday
2 October 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
      Newfoundland
      Nova Scotia.

      For hurricane Ophelia.

      The next statement will be issued by 3:00 PM ADT.

      Hurricane Ophelia beginning to turn toward the northeast -
      Expected to track near the Avalon Peninsula Monday morning as a
      Strong post-tropical storm.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 9:00 AM ADT.

Location: near 37.5 north 61.4 west.
About 645 kilometres north-northeast of Bermuda.
Maximum sustained winds: near 205 km/hour.
Present movement: north-northeast at 46 km/hour.
Minimum central pressure: 948 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Avalon Peninsula.
Rainfall warnings have been issued for Southeastern Newfoundland.

Ophelia - briefly a category four storm Saturday evening - has
finally begun to weaken as it moves toward an environment that will
lead to rapid weakening.  An unrelated non-tropical weather system
stretching from Newfoundland to south of Nova Scotia will move
northward today and give another shot of heavy rain to parts of the
Maritimes today and tonight.  Rain from Ophelia will affect
Southeastern Newfoundland Monday morning.

Computer models are still showing different scenarios for Ophelia's
track - ranging from the Burin Peninsula in Newfoundland to 100
kilometres south of the Avalon.

A. Wind.

Greatest chance for strong winds from Ophelia is over Southeastern
Newfoundland.  There is now about a 70% chance of tropical storm
force winds over the Avalon Peninsula, hence the tropical storm watch
has been maintained - and may be upgraded to a warning this
afternoon.  Tropical storm force winds are approximately 60 gusting
to 90 km/h.  Chance of hurricane-force gusts (120 km/h) in this area
remains low at 5-10%.

B. Rainfall.

Rainfall warnings have been issued for Southeastern Newfoundland.
Rainfall warnings remain in effect for parts of Nova Scotia in
relation to the rain from the fore-mentioned non-tropical system.

This stalled frontal system could tap in to some of Ophelia's
moisture later today and into Monday giving the possibility of
enhanced heavy rainfall over Eastern Nova Scotia. Rainfall directly
from Ophelia is expected over Eastern Newfoundland beginning early
Monday morning. Expect a 4 to 6 hour period of heavy rainfall over
these regions Monday morning. 40 to 60 mm with locally up to 75
millimetres is possible with rainfall rates up to 20
millimetres/hour.

C. Surge/waves.

Waves will be a concern along the South Coast of Newfoundland Monday.
We are still establishing details of what to expect in terms of wave
heights, but a range of 5 to 7 metres is likely along the South Coast
of Newfoundland - Fortune bay and east. Ocean swell will also begin
to reach the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia later today and Monday.
Incident swell height of 3 metres breaking in the 4-metre
(10-14-foot) range is possible late Sunday night along the Atlantic
coast of Nova Scotia. With regard to storm surge, 40 to 60 cm is
possible Monday morning around the Avalon and Burin peninsulas.
This should not pose significant problems but a farther-north track
would necessitate an increase in forecast water levels.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for southeastern
Maritimes marine areas near and to the right of Ophelia's track.
Gale or storm warnings are in effect for adjacent areas and portions
of the Grand Banks and Eastern Newfoundland waters. While Ophelia is
currently an intense hurricane its wind field is relatively compact
with its strongest winds confined very close to its center.

Large waves are expected in the offshore - especially to the right
(southeast) and close to Ophelia's track as it moves into Canadian
waters. Greatest threat for large waves is over Laurentian Fan and
Grand Banks where wave heights of 10 metres or more are possible.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.
- strength and predicted wind radii table.
- hurricane track information map.
- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/COUTURIER/FOGARTY