Remembrance Day Storm Update One

000
WTNT34 KNHC 100236
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
1000 PM EST WED NOV 09 2011

...SEAN CONTINUES NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...COULD STILL
BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY...
...AT 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF SEAN
WILL PASS NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
SEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 100240
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
1000 PM EST WED NOV 09 2011

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY OF SEAN HAS
LEVELED OFF THIS EVENING. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTER
HAVE WARMED...ALTHOUGH RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM THE U.S. NAVY
FNMOC TC WEBPAGE STILL SHOWS A BANDING EYE FEATURE. BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SOME INNER
CORE STRUCTURE...SEAN STILL HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LGEM AT 24 HOURS...SHOWING SEAN REACHING
HURRICANE STRENGTH. AFTER THAT TIME...SEAN SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO
COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR. MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE CYCLONE
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AND BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHORTLY THEREAFTER...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER.

SEAN HAS JOGGED QUICKLY NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07. SEAN SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OFF OF THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS
DUE TO THE FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT TIME
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS UNTIL DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 29.5N  70.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  10/1200Z 30.3N  70.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  11/0000Z 31.8N  68.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  11/1200Z 34.5N  64.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  12/0000Z 38.5N  59.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Inverness County - Mabou and north
9:32 PM AST Wednesday 09 November 2011
Les Suêtes wind warning for
Inverness County - Mabou and north continued

Les Suetes wind gusts of up to 110 km/h Thursday night and into Friday.

This is a warning that potentially hazardous winds..Les Suetes..Are expected or occurring in these regions and over adjacent coastal waters. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A low pressure system over the Great Lakes will move to lie over Hudson Bay by Friday morning. A trough extending from the low will approach New Brunswick Thursday evening. As this trough approaches it will absorb moisture from tropical storm Sean which will be in its dissipating stage well south of Nova Scotia. Rainfall is expected to begin Thursday evening and continue into Friday. Rainfall amounts of between 50 to 80 millimetres are currently forecast for Western Nova Scotia with further amounts expected on Friday. Southeast winds from this system are expected to reach gusts of up to 80 km/h and up to 110 km/h from the Margaree Harbour to Bay St Lawrence area of Cape Breton. Rainfall warnings will likely extend into central and eastern portions of Nova Scotia.

Yarmouth County
9:32 PM AST Wednesday 09 November 2011
Rainfall warning for
Yarmouth County continued

Rainfall amounts of up to 80 millimetres by Friday morning.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A low pressure system over the Great Lakes will move to lie over Hudson Bay by Friday morning. A trough extending from the low will approach New Brunswick Thursday evening. As this trough approaches it will absorb moisture from tropical storm Sean which will be in its dissipating stage well south of Nova Scotia. Rainfall is expected to begin Thursday evening and continue into Friday. Rainfall amounts of between 50 to 80 millimetres are currently forecast for Western Nova Scotia with further amounts expected on Friday. Southeast winds from this system are expected to reach gusts of up to 80 km/h and up to 110 km/h from the Margaree Harbour to Bay St Lawrence area of Cape Breton. Rainfall warnings will likely extend into central and eastern portions of Nova Scotia.

WOCN14 CWHX 100131
Special weather statement updated by Environment Canada at 9:31 PM
AST Wednesday 9 November 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Special weather statement for:
      New Brunswick.

      Heavy rain expected for southern sections of New Brunswick.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
A low pressure system over the Great Lakes will move to lie over
Hudsons bay by Friday morning.  A trough extending from the low will
approach New Brunswick Thursday evening.  As the trough approaches it
will absorb moisture from the dissipating tropical storm Sean.
We are currently forecasting rainfall amounts of 30 to 40 millimetres
along southern sections of the province.  These amounts are expected
to accumulate from Thursday evening until Friday morning.
Higher amounts could be possible in these regions due to the
convective nature of the airmass.  Please monitor future forecasts
and warnings as rainfall warnings may be required.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA

End

WOCN11 CWHX 100131
Special weather statement updated by Environment Canada at 9:31 PM
AST Wednesday 9 November 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Special weather statement for:
      Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
      Halifax County - east of Porters Lake
      Hants County
      Colchester County - Truro and south
      Colchester County - Cobequid Bay
      Cumberland County - Minas Shore
      Cumberland County North and Cobequid Pass
      Colchester County North
      Pictou County
      Antigonish County
      Guysborough County
      Cape Breton.

      Heavy rain expected for Nova Scotia Thursday night and Friday.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
A low pressure system over the Great Lakes will move to lie over
Hudsons bay by Friday morning.  A trough extending from the low will
approach Nova Scotia Thursday evening.  As the trough approaches it
will absorb moisture from tropical storm Sean which will be in its
dissipating stage well south of Nova Scotia.  Rainfall warnings have
been issued for western sections of the province with rainfall
amounts of up to 80 millimetres expected by Friday morning.  The rain
is expected to spread across the province on Friday where amounts
could reach or possibly exceed rainfall warning criteria of 50
millimetres due to the convective nature of the airmass.
Please monitor future forecasts and warnings as rainfall warnings may
need to be extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA

End

WOCN31 CWHX 100045
Tropical cyclone information statement issued by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 5:34 PM AST Wednesday
9 November 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
=new= Newfoundland
=new= Nova Scotia.

      For tropical storm Sean.

      The next statement will be issued by 9:00 AM AST Thursday.

      Canadian Hurricane Centre monitoring tropical storm Sean -
      Expected to dissipate as tropical entity prior to arrival over
      Canadian waters.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
Tropical storm Sean formed from an originally non-tropical low
pressure system southwest of Bermuda.  The storm has become organized
today and may attain hurricane status overnight or Thursday.
A strong cold front is approaching the tropical storm from the west
and is expected to quickly absorb it and extract the moisture
northward - falling over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.  We do not
expect the core of the storm's wind to last long enough to affect
Canadian waters directly, so we are not planning regular bulletins
from the Canadian Hurricane Centre at this time.  However, we will
issue an update on the situation Thursday morning.  The possibility
of the storm retaining its entity inside Canadian forecast waters
still exists.  Regardless, high wind, heavy rainfall and unseasonably
warm temperatures will overspread Atlantic Canada and offshore waters
on Friday.

Special weather statements and rainfall warnings can be found at
weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/warnings and storm track information at
weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case).

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/FOGARTY