Hurricane Leslie now headed for Newfoundland?
000
WTNT32 KNHC 070233
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST THU SEP 06 2012
...LESLIE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...
...SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 62.2W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. LESLIE IS
STATIONARY...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A NORTHWARD
DRIFT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER NORTHWARD
MOTION EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LESLIE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WHILE SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM. NOAA BUOY 41049 RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN
WINDS OF 54 MPH...86 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 65 MPH...104 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE LESLIE ON
FRIDAY MORNING.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTNT42 KNHC 070234
TCDAT2
HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST THU SEP 06 2012
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF
LESLIE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE SYSTEM CONTINUING
TO FEATURE A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER
THAN -70C. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE IMAGES PRIOR TO 0000 UTC DID NOT
SHOW A WELL-DEFINED EYE OR EYEWALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...WHILE SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE 60-65 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND IMPROVING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
LESLIE HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT REMAINS
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT-TO-NON-EXISTENT STEERING CURRENTS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HR AND ALLOW LESLIE TO BEGIN A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION. IN THE
LONGER TERM...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND REACH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 72 HR.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STEER LESLIE NORTHWARD AND THEN EVENTUALLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE IN THE FORWARD SPEED...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL NOTABLY
FASTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...AND THE GFS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN
THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 36 HR COMPROMISES
BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...
AND THUS THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LESLIE HAS MOVED SLOWLY ENOUGH FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS TO HAVE
UPWELLED COLD OCEAN WATER TO THE SURFACE. REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY
41049 INDICATE THAT THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE HAS DECREASED FROM
29C TO 26C-27C...WHILE MICROWAVE-BASED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ESTIMATES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES OF 24C-25C UNDER THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE. AT BEST...LITTLE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL
LESLIE MOVES NORTH OF THE COLD WATER...AND SOME WEAKENING IS
POSSIBLE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FROM 12-36 HR IS REDUCED FROM
THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD
WATER. FROM 36-72 HR...LESLIE SHOULD MOVE OVER WARMER WATERS AND
STRENGTHEN...AND THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. INCREASING SHEAR AND THE START OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING AFTER THE 72 HR
POINT.
THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 26.5N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 26.8N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 27.2N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 28.0N 62.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 29.3N 62.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 33.0N 61.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 37.0N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 43.0N 55.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
posted by Advackia at 8:23 PM
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