Hurricane Leslie a potential long range threat to the region update six

000
FXUS61 KCAR 051927
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
327 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012......

.....LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/.....

........LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WHAT SHOULD THEN BE HURRICANE LESLIE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING NORTH SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF CROSSING MAINE SHOULD STEER THE STORM EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTH FROM LESLIE INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. A PERIOD OF HIGH SURF CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK AS LARGE WAVES WILL BE PROPAGATED WELL AWAY FROM THE STORM`S CENTER. FINALLY, A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE STORM TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MARITIMES LATER MONDAY WITH DIMINISHING SHOWER CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY........

WOCN31 CWHX 051745
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 3:10 PM ADT Wednesday
5 September 2012.
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Tropical cyclone information statement for:
      Atlantic provinces.

      For hurricane Leslie.

      The next statement will be issued at 9:00 AM ADT Thursday.

      General discussion regarding recently-upgraded hurricane Leslie
      And possible influence in Eastern Canada.

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==discussion==
The Canadian Hurricane Centre is monitoring the development of
hurricane Leslie.  The storm is expected to move very slowly and
intensify gradually over the next 3 days.  Computer models are
predicting Leslie to only travel 250 kilometres over the next 2 days
which is basically a person's average speed of walking.  With such a
slow speed of travel and the fact that the storm is still in its
organizing stage, there is much (more than usual) uncertainty in the
predicted path and intensity.

Computer models indicate that Leslie should eventually push through
the large 'Bermuda high' and accelerate toward Eastern Canada with a
range of track scenarios spanning Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
The middle of these track forecasts crosses through Newfoundland -
but even that 'average' will likely shift several times with each new
run of simulations.  If Leslie makes it to Eastern Canada, it would
not likely do so until early next week.  There are other factors such
as 'cold-water upwelling' and 'high pressure building' resulting from
the hurricane itself that the computer models can sometimes fail to
predict.  Thus, the range of scenarios may be even broader than those
models indicate now.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre will continue issuing these general
information statements on Thursday with more detailed track
information forecasts likely beginning on Friday.

Visit WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE/TRACK_E.HTML (all in lower
case) for the latest hurricane track map.

END/FOGARTY