Tropical storm Leslie a potential long range threat to the region update three

WOCN31 CWHX 041745
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 1:01 PM ADT TUESDAY
4 SEPTEMBER 2012.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
=NEW= ATLANTIC PROVINCES.

      FOR TROPICAL STORM LESLIE.

      THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT WEDNESDAY.

      EARLY DISCUSSION REGARDING TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AND POSSIBLE
      INFLUENCE IN EASTERN CANADA.

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==DISCUSSION==
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE WILL BE MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE THIS WEEK.  THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY AND INTENSIFY GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
COMPUTER MODELS ARE PREDICTING LESLIE TO ONLY TRAVEL 500 KILOMETRES
IN 4 DAYS WHICH IS BASICALLY A PERSON'S AVERAGE SPEED OF WALKING.
WITH SUCH A SLOW SPEED OF TRAVEL AND THE FACT THAT THE STORM IS STILL
IN ITS ORGANIZING STAGE, THERE IS MUCH (MORE THAN USUAL) UNCERTAINTY
IN THE PREDICTED PATH/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT LESLIE COULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH
THE LARGE 'BERMUDA HIGH' AND ACELLERATE TOWARD EASTERN CANADA WITH A
RANGE OF TRACK SCENARIOS FROM MAINE TO OFFSHORE NEWFOUNDLAND.
THE MIDDLE OF THESE TRACK FORECASTS IS OVER NEWFOUNDLAND - BUT EVEN
THAT 'AVERAGE' WILL LIKELY SHIFT BY HUNDREDS OF KILOMETERS OVER TIME
WITH EACH NEW RUN OF SIMULATIONS.  IF LESLIE MAKES IT TO EASTERN
CANADA, IT WOULD NOT LIKELY DO SO UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WE WILL UPDATE THIS BULLETIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK IF LESLIE CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND WILL PROVIDE INTERPRETATION OF THE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
AND DEGREE OF PREDICTABILITY.

VISIT WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE/TRACK_E.HTML (ALL IN LOWER
CASE) FOR THE LATEST HURRICANE TRACK MAP.

END/FOGARTY